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Analyzing the rushing stats of each team in 2013

BlueFin

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There's a theory among some that Miami in 2013 was effective at running the ball...they just simply CHOSE not to run.

Here is an interesting Adjusted Yards Per Carry Metric with results for 2013 and comments on Miami's rushing attack.........................

A couple of weeks ago, Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) wrote a great post on the value of a first down. From that post, we concluded that the marginal value of a first down is 9 yards, and we’ve previously determined that the marginal value of a touchdown is 20 yards. Therefore, we can create an Adjusted Yards per Carry statistic, which can be calculated as follows:
Adjusted Yards per Carry = (Rushing Yards + 20 * Rushing TDs + 9 * Rushing First Downs) / Rushes
​
If we use this metric to analyze the 2013 season, how would it look? Last year, the Eagles averaged 5.13 yards per carry and 8.29 Adjusted YPC, courtesy of the fact that the team led the NFL in rushing first downs. Philadelphia also ranked 1st in the NFL in both of those metrics and in overall rushing yards.
Search:
Tm
Rsh
Yds
TD
FD
YPC
AdjYPC
Yds
YPC
AdjYPC
PHI5002566191335.138.29111
MIN4232081231064.928.26822
GNB4592136171194.657.73743
KAN4422056171104.657.661054
WAS4532164141124.787.62535
CHI4041828131024.527.441676
DAL336150412804.487.332487
NWE4702065191104.397.31998
OAK437200016904.587.161269
SFO5052201181154.367.1231110
CAR4832026141224.197.05111611
IND409174315884.266.9320.51312
SEA5092188141164.36.941213
DEN4611873161074.066.85152014
DET4451792151064.036.84172215
TEN4621894161034.16.8141916
NYJ4932158121054.386.7861017
BUF5462307151134.236.6421418
HOU41417437904.216.520.51519
ATL321124711643.886.36322420
SDG486196591044.046.34132121
STL426175210824.116.31191822
NOR391147310873.776.28252623
CLE34813834773.976.227.52324
MIA34914408614.136.16261725
CIN4811755141013.656.12182826
ARI422154012843.656.01232727
NYG381133211773.55.89293028
PIT39413839813.515.8227.52929
TAM42016126753.845.73222530
JAX37812607713.335.39313131
BAL42313287683.144.92303232

​
So what are the biggest differences we see when using Adjusted YPC compared to general YPC?
Click to expand...

  • The Dolphins ranked 17th in yards per carry, but just 25th in Adjusted Yards per Carry. One reason: Miami ranked last in rushing first downs with just 61. Lamar Miller may have averaged a respectable 4.0 yards per carry, but he gained just 27 first downs on 177 runs. For reference: Trent Richardson rushed for 27 first downs last year, too, on 188 carries.
Click to expand...

This metric backs up what I saw with my own eyes, Tannehill did not have the rushing attack Wilson had in Seattle, and he certainly didn't have the defense.....so the suggestion that Miami had the talent to contend and was only held back by Ryan Tannehill's poor play has been weighed.....measured....and been found lacking!

http://www.footballperspective.com/analyzing-the-rushing-stats-of-each-team-in-2013/
 
BlueFin said:
There's a theory among some that Miami in 2013 was effective at running the ball...they just simply CHOSE not to run.

Here is an interesting Adjusted Yards Per Carry Metric with results for 2013 and comments on Miami's rushing attack.........................

This metric backs up what I saw with my own eyes, Tannehill did not have the rushing attack Wilson had in Seattle, and he certainly didn't have the defense.....so the suggestion that Miami had the talent to contend and was only held back by Ryan Tannehill's poor play has been weighed.....measured....and been found lacking!

http://www.footballperspective.com/analyzing-the-rushing-stats-of-each-team-in-2013/
Click to expand...

Love the "Knight's Tale" reference.
 
BlueFin said:
There's a theory among some that Miami in 2013 was effective at running the ball...they just simply CHOSE not to run.

Here is an interesting Adjusted Yards Per Carry Metric with results for 2013 and comments on Miami's rushing attack.........................





This metric backs up what I saw with my own eyes, Tannehill did not have the rushing attack Wilson had in Seattle, and he certainly didn't have the defense.....so the suggestion that Miami had the talent to contend and was only held back by Ryan Tannehill's poor play has been weighed.....measured....and been found lacking!

http://www.footballperspective.com/analyzing-the-rushing-stats-of-each-team-in-2013/
Click to expand...

So your eyes told you that Seattle had the 13th best rushing attack in the NFL last season (slightly above average)? Does a slightly above average running game - in your mind - translate to a major advantage for a QB?
 
Bottom line is Miami couldn't run the ball when the opposition knew we were going to...we got our tails whooped up front in situational play in the run game...short yardage conversion opportunities

Mano a Mano we got bitch slapped
 
j-off-her-doll said:
So your eyes told you that Seattle had the 13th best rushing attack in the NFL last season (slightly above average)? Does a slightly above average running game - in your mind - translate to a major advantage for a QB?
Click to expand...

13th being slightly above average or not, that's 700 more ground yards than Miami had, and placed 12 spots higher than the Dolphins on that list...I'd say that's a relatively significant difference. I'm sure we'd love to have those 700, and so would Tannehill. Also, the overall effect of those 700 yards is FAR more helpful than the number alone.

It may have appeared they were higher than 13th because they were consistent/good at it (actually 4th in yardage for 2013), and it really helped out their offense, but this chart is within a particular context that is weighted toward 1sts/TDs. Consequently it is pretty close to where they ranked in yards-per-carry (12th).

Edit: Even with all those yards more than Miami had, and in 160 more attempts, they had LESS fumbles lost than Miami (2 to 3).
 
Watching the games will tell you the running game was craptastistic at best...the number of missed short yardage runs was astounding, nothing kills confidence and momentum like failing to make a 3rd and inches....
 
I've done some analysis on this as well. When you look at 1st and 2nd down carries only, I think you can say a successful run is >4, while on 3rd down a successful run is a first down or touchdown. I scrubbed out 3rd and long runs and runs from shotgun on 3rd down to make sure a running back wasn't getting penalized for a coach being conservative. What I found is that both Thomas and Miller were greatly below average. Our rushing offense was not good last year, our eyes told us that, and any useful statistic will confirm it.
 
PhinFan1968 said:
13th being slightly above average or not, that's 700 more ground yards than Miami had, and placed 12 spots higher than the Dolphins on that list...I'd say that's a relatively significant difference. I'm sure we'd love to have those 700, and so would Tannehill. Also, the overall effect of those 700 yards is FAR more helpful than the number alone.

It may have appeared they were higher than 13th because they were consistent/good at it (actually 4th in yardage for 2013), and it really helped out their offense, but this chart is within a particular context that is weighted toward 1sts/TDs. Consequently it is pretty close to where they ranked in yards-per-carry (12th).

Edit: Even with all those yards more than Miami had, and in 160 more attempts, they had LESS fumbles lost than Miami (2 to 3).
Click to expand...

Right, Seattle did have the better running game; I don't think anyone is arguing that stance. Same as no one is arguing that the higher percentage of run plays didn't help Wilson. The contention, though, has been that Seattle had this dominate run game, and Wilson was just along for the ride. Seattle's run blocking was mediocre last season (injuries being a factor); Lynch propelled the rushing game to above average (in regard to efficiency). Wilson had to make a much larger number of significant throws than many on this board give him credit for. Seattle was a top 10 scoring offense. In points per play, Seattle tied with the Eagles (0.42) and topped New England (0.39). The top 11 teams in points per game, and their points per play:

1. DEN -37.9, 0.52 (1)
2. CHI - 27.8, 0.44 (3)
2. NE - 27.8, 0.39 (t8)
4. PHI - 27.6, 0.42 (t4)
5. DAL - 27.4, 0.46 (2)
6. CIN - 26.9, 0.39 (t8)
6. KC - 26.9, 0.40 (7)
8. GB - 26.1, 0.39 (t8)
8. SEA - 26.1, 0.42 (t4)
10. NO - 25.9, 0.38 (11)
11. SF - 25.4, 0.42 (t4)

Miami averaged 0.32 points per play (PPG 19.8). They were worse in both categories than teams like Oakland and St. Luis. That's not all on Tannehill, but the gap between Miami and Seattle, in PPP, is the same as the gap between Seattle and that historic Denver offense. So their rushing efficiency is only average, but their scoring efficiency is top-5, and their passing efficiency numbers are also top-5.
 
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j-off-her-doll said:
Right, Seattle did have the better running game; I don't think anyone is arguing that stance. Same as no one is arguing that the higher percentage of run plays didn't help Wilson. The contention, though, has been that Seattle had this dominate run game, and Wilson was just along for the ride. Seattle's run blocking was mediocre last season (injuries being a factor); Lynch propelled the rushing game to above average (in regard to efficiency). Wilson had to make a much larger number of significant throws than many on this board give him credit for. Seattle was a top 10 scoring offense. In points per play, Seattle tied with the Eagles (0.42) and topped New England (0.39). The top 11 teams in points per game, and their points per play:

1. DEN -37.9, 0.52 (1)
2. CHI - 27.8, 0.44 (3)
2. NE - 27.8, 0.39 (t8)
4. PHI - 27.6, 0.42 (t4)
5. DAL - 27.4, 0.46 (2)
6. CIN - 26.9, 0.39 (t8)
6. KC - 26.9, 0.40 (7)
8. GB - 26.1, 0.39 (t8)
8. SEA - 26.1, 0.42 (t4)
10. NO - 25.9, 0.38 (11)
11. SF - 25.4, 0.42 (t4)

Miami averaged 0.32 points per play (PPG 19.8). They were worse in both categories than teams like Oakland and St. Luis. That's not all on Tannehill, but the gap between Miami and Seattle, in PPP, is the same as the gap between Seattle and that historic Denver offense. So their rushing efficiency is only average, but their scoring efficiency is top-5, and their passing efficiency numbers are also top-5.
Click to expand...

Yep...and what can't be measured is the effect that run game had on the passing game. You can cross-reference numbers, but it won't tell the whole tale. They also weren't saddled with Mike "Centrum Silver" Sherman as an OC, and the head coach telling him to throw throw throw and cut out all the swag. Better coaches, better run game, better overall team (obviously)...better young QB so far...
 
PhinFan1968 said:
Yep...and what can't be measured is the effect that run game had on the passing game. You can cross-reference numbers, but it won't tell the whole tale. They also weren't saddled with Mike "Centrum Silver" Sherman as an OC, and the head coach telling him to throw throw throw and cut out all the swag. Better coaches, better run game, better overall team (obviously)...better young QB so far...
Click to expand...

Wilson had advantages - no arguments there. But he played at a very high level - a level you would hope a QB might reach. Seattle's running game absolutely opened up the passing game at times, but Wilson operated one of the best offenses in the NFL, and all the impressive efficiency numbers belong to the passing game - despite poor O-line play and a mediocre group of WR's.

TD/TO ratio and YPA will tell the story of Tannehill's season. That's not to say that it's all on him, but the team around him should be good enough for him to take that next step. If he does, I'll begin to take Tannehill vs Wilson arguments seriously. Until then, it'll take too much speculation and justification to even get Tannehill in the argument. As I said in the other thread, I hope Tannehill is the best ever. But he has to show me a few more things before I start comparing him to QB's that have arrived.
 
If your defense is stopping the opponent at an elite level and your running game is more effective...it puts your passing game in a more advantageous situation.

In a much better situation that Tannehill faced with inferior pass protect....a running game that wasn't effective and could not gain 1st downs /TD's effectively.

This should be more than obvious to any observer without the kind of debate this subject seems to spark on this board, it's football 101.

Maybe it's because we had Marino that so many expect a Dolphin quarterback to be able to rise above the kind of flaws the 2013 Dolphins clearly had?

However, even Dan Marino couldn't overcome the flawed football teams he played on here and reach the team success enjoyed by Seattle in 2013.

Many of you seem enamored with a QB like Wilson with such a great cast....yet are quick to down grade our own Bob Griese because of his elite supporting cast.....it really is baffling?

Do any of you Wilson admirers really think he would have led the 2013 Dolphins to great team success with the Major flaws that existed?
 
Miami was ranked 29th in the league in time of possession last year. We need to be able to run the ball to sustain drives and to keep our defense fresh. Not being able to run the ball hurts the whole team - QB, defense, ect.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
TD/TO ratio and YPA will tell the story of Tannehill's season. That's not to say that it's all on him, but the team around him should be good enough for him to take that next step. If he does, I'll begin to take Tannehill vs Wilson arguments seriously. Until then, it'll take too much speculation and justification to even get Tannehill in the argument. As I said in the other thread, I hope Tannehill is the best ever. But he has to show me a few more things before I start comparing him to QB's that have arrived.
Click to expand...

Even Seattle knows better. Stop sniffing Wilson's jock strap.

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/slideshow/Most-overrated-and-underrated-Seahawks-players-88727.php

Overrated

QB Russell Wilson

This is almost by definition, as a quarterback gets way too much credit when a team wins and way too much blame when they don’t. Still, Wilson’s numbers in 2013 weren’t exactly mind-blowing, and there were stretches during the season where he just didn’t look like a franchise quarterback.
 
One thing that gets left out of the rushing discussion is the QB rushing yards.
To me those are above and beyond yards. In other words the real measure of a team rushing game is total rushing yards minus QB rushing yards.
What can your LOS and backs do when the other team knows you are running.
if you take into account the fact that RW scrambled for 539 yards you find out Seattle really only rushed for slight more than 100 a game. Decent but not dominant.
Take away RT17's 238 rushing yards and you find the Dolphins average about 75 a game with backs. So there is a distinct advantage there for the RW.

But RW was better at sensing pressure taking off and avoiding the sack and getting positive rushing yards. That 300 yard advantage over RT17 extended drives and allowed more rushing attempts by Lynch which in turn made their rushing game better.
 
I don't blame the poor conversion of short yardage on just the running backs. If a line can block, a good fart could get my grandma to convert in short yardage. Far too often, our RB's were hit a yard or more before they even got to the original LOS. There were five men on the line, including Pouncey, who all failed to get any push and give the runner a chance. Unfortunately, neither Thomas nor Miller can get something out of nothing, but for that matter many RB's in the league can't either.
 
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