Another QB Evaluation Statistic

[Wildbill3]

this is getting as bad as a junc/vaark discussion. That being said, we know what to expect out of a gravity thread, no need to play the same "gotcha" games in every one of these. In fact, I'm tired of the gotcha games period. Either discuss the topic intelligently, and within the TOS, or don't bother opening the thread.

 

[Shouright]

this is getting as bad as a junc/vaark discussion. That being said, we know what to expect out of a gravity thread, no need to play the same "gotcha" games in every one of these. In fact, I'm tired of the gotcha games period. Either discuss the topic intelligently, and within the TOS, or don't bother opening the thread.

I'll second that. :up:

No need to feel victimized by something one can easily avoid.

 

[The Goat]

I'll make you a deal: you provide objective evidence in support of Tannehill's being better than average in some important way, and if I don't consider it and respond thoughtfully and respectfully, I'll call myself as biased as you believe me to be. :up:

You're really not getting it, are you?

 

[The Goat]

I'll second that. :up:

No need to feel victimized by something one can easily avoid.

Ya know what? This is probably the best route.

It just utterly baffles me why someone spends so much time and effort trying to bludgeon this forum to death with the notion that Ryan Tannehill is currently an average QB by continually spouting individual-based statistics in a team sport.

I understand that you're using select metrics to compare QB, but those metrics are still rooted in team play.

 

[Shouright]

Ya know what? This is probably the best route.

It just utterly baffles me why someone spends so much time and effort trying to bludgeon this forum to death with the notion that Ryan Tannehill is currently an average QB by continually spouting individual-based statistics in a team sport.

I understand that you're using select metrics to compare QB, but those metrics are still rooted in team play.

If and when Tannehill improves, I'll be using the same statistics to chart it, and people will have the same freedom then to give it whatever consideration they'd like.

 

[Shouright]

The variable created by the regression coefficients associated with EPA per play and time to attempt to throw, with the dependent variable being team win percentage, accounting for 54% of the variance in win percentage, and 86% of the variance in WPA per game:

Peyton Manning .35
Aaron Rodgers .31
Nick Foles .25
Philip Rivers .25
Drew Brees .22
Andy Dalton .18
Tom Brady .17
Andrew Luck .15
Matthew Stafford .14
Matt Ryan .14
Ben Roethlisberger .14
Ryan Fitzpatrick .14
Russell Wilson .14
Carson Palmer .13
Colin Kaepernick .13
Tony Romo .13
Cam Newton .12
Alex Smith .10
Matt Cassel .09
Ryan Tannehill .08
Jay Cutler .07
Sam Bradford .07
Robert Griffin III .05
Joe Flacco .04
Chad Henne .03
Mike Glennon -.01
EJ Manuel -.02
Eli Manning -.02
Jason Campbell -.04
Geno Smith -.05
Matt Schaub -.06
Case Keenum -.07
Brandon Weeden -.07

How quickly after the snap a QB decides to throw (time to attempt), combined with raw performance (EPA). Quickness of decision-making, combined with the overall effectiveness of those decisions. Perhaps the "holy grail" of QB play, if it can be represented statistically.

 

[dlockz]

so this is news that Ryan Tannehill in his second year of starting is basically an average qb. Wow what a surprise. Of course all qb's have peaked by their second year

 

[Shouright]

so this is news that Ryan Tannehill in his second year of starting is basically an average qb. Wow what a surprise. Of course all qb's have peaked by their second year

The statistical measures of QB play and how they can be combined to account for varying percentages of the variance in win percentage and WPA are far more interesting in my opinion than Ryan Tannehill's current play. Perhaps that'll change in the future, however.

 

[cafinfan408]

Hey grav can you work some stat magic on the redzone numbers of qbs?

 

[dlockz]

The statistical measures of QB play and how they can be combined to account for varying percentages of the variance in win percentage and WPA are far more interesting in my opinion than Ryan Tannehill's current play. Perhaps that'll change in the future, however.

you can choose to create any statistic you like and call them objective and decide how it will relate to his future play but the fact of the matter is that there are way too many variables that come into play as being a qb to draw an real conclusion from them.
Football is a team game, I mean seriously have you ever played football? Please go create some statistical analysis to show me we had a good oline last year or that or defense was top notch. The real issue is two seasons is not enough to draw any type of conclusion from, simply put just not enough data. You seem to have some agenda to show something that nobody is claiming is there. Ryan Tannehill is not one of the best qb's in the nfl , is there an argument on this we don't know about.

 

[Shouright]

you can choose to create any statistic you like and call them objective and decide how it will relate to his future play but the fact of the matter is that there are way too many variables that come into play as being a qb to draw an real conclusion from them.
Football is a team game, I mean seriously have you ever played football? Please go create some statistical analysis to show me we had a good oline last year or that or defense was top notch. The real issue is two seasons is not enough to draw any type of conclusion from, simply put just not enough data. You seem to have some agenda to show something that nobody is claiming is there. Ryan Tannehill is not one of the best qb's in the nfl , is there an argument on this we don't know about.

I don't think you realize that I'm saying nothing about Ryan Tannehill's future performance, or using statistics to predict it in any way.

 

[LandShark13]

 

[dlockz]

I don't think you realize that I'm saying nothing about Ryan Tannehill's future performance, or using statistics to predict it in any way.

as I said it shows he is average, surprise surprise 2nd year qb is average. what a stunning revelation. Thanks for putting in hours of research and crunching numbers to show this

 

[dlockz]

You could just have saved your time and used qb rating which says Tannehill is 24th ranked qb lol

 

[Shouright]

as I said it shows he is average, surprise surprise 2nd year qb is average. what a stunning revelation. Thanks for putting in hours of research and crunching numbers to show this

You could just have saved your time and used qb rating which says Tannehill is 24th ranked qb lol

The statistical measures of QB play and how they can be combined to account for varying percentages of the variance in win percentage and WPA are far more interesting in my opinion than Ryan Tannehill's current play. Perhaps that'll change in the future, however.

:confused2: