Not at all. The games don't always come down to one play. There is so much more than that. Agreed that refs can dictate the game IF the game comes down to that last play, but other than that, it's a lot harder than you think. For instance, how many calls would the refs had to have made or missed in our routing of the broncos for the broncos to win that game?Not true at all.
One ref can dictate the entire outcome of the game or season.
You don't need coaches/players acting out a script. You only need one timely penatly to either remove points or keep the likelyhood of a team scoring points.
Timely penalties can kill drives, momentum. And certain penalties can be called on every single play making it seem normal rather than nefarious.
Sorry, not trying to be rude, but your friend couldn't be any more wrong.