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Myth Buster: First Round Quarterbacks and the Super Bowl
by Chris Kouffman
There is a common myth out there that drafting a quarterback in the first round makes you about as likely to go to the Super Bowl as it would be for Anna Kournikova to suddenly fall in love with you after getting her autograph at a tennis tournament.
There have been a number of gerrymandered statistics offered showing how few first round quarterbacks there are that have won Super Bowls with the team that drafted them between Super Bowls XXX through XXXIX, minus Super Bowls XXXI through XXXIII, plus Super Bowl XXVI…Well, you get the picture.
Notice the key emphasis on the term “the team that drafted them.†What exactly are we looking at here? We are looking at the investment of a first round pick in a rookie quarterback. Is the historical success of Eli Manning in New York, or Phil Rivers in San Diego, any less pertinent to the decision to use your first round draft pick on Quarterback X, just because Rivers was actually drafted by New York and Manning was actually drafted by San Diego? Likewise, just because John Elway was drafted by the Baltimore Colts, and subsequently traded to the Denver Broncos, do we toss away the results that the Broncos were able to achieve between 1984 and 1998? Should we toss Steve McNair from consideration because he was drafted by the Houston Oilers, which subsequently became the Tennessee Titans?
A Look at the Actual Numbers
Between 1965 and 2005, there were 83 quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. This represents approximately 12.5% of the 663 quarterbacks drafted during that time period. The above percentage is an overstated figure, since not every quarterback in the NFL in any given year was actually drafted.
Of the 83 first round draft picks, 18 of the quarterbacks have been to at least one Super Bowl, regardless of which team they showed up to the Big Show driving, representing approximately 22% of all first round draft pick quarterbacks during the period. Of those 18 quarterbacks, 11 of them emerged from the Super Bowl victorious, representing a 13% chance that your first round quarterback turns out to be a Super Bowl winner.
So what about this phenomenon where it seems that a bunch of first round quarterbacks that do get to the big game, do it with a team that did not draft them? Tossing out silly semantics, only 5 of the 18 first round quarterbacks that have played in the Super Bowl did so with their non-original team. Craig Morton is the only first round quarterback in NFL history with the distinct pleasure of having played in a Super Bowl with his original team, and subsequently playing in a Super Bowl with a different team. Overall, discounting quarterbacks that won with their non-original team leaves you with 13 first round quarterbacks who have played in at least one Super Bowl with their original team, and 7 first round quarterbacks who have won at least one Super Bowl with their original team, representing percentages of 16% and 8%, respectively.
So, does that mean that when you pick a quarterback in the NFL Draft, you only have a 16% chance of going to a Super Bowl with that quarterback? Absolutely not! It is true that any given first round quarterback picked only has a 16% chance of playing in AT LEAST one Super Bowl, but this does not equal the expected value of drafting a quarterback in the first round, put into terms of expected Super Bowls. The reason is the franchise effect that high quality quarterbacks can have. Picking up a legendary quarterback through the draft such as John Elway does not just get you one Super Bowl appearance. In Elway’s case, it got the Denver Broncos five Super Bowl appearances.
There have been 39 Super Bowls since the game was invented in 1967. That figure leaves 78 total Super Bowl appearances to be made during the period, and 39 victors. Of the 78 teams that have played in 39 Super Bowls, 35 of those teams featured a first round quarterback, which means 45% of all teams that have played in the Super Bowl did so with a first round quarterback. Of those 35 Super Bowl contenders, only 7 of them featured first round quarterbacks not playing with their original team, which leaves a decent 36% of all Super Bowl contenders featuring a first round quarterback playing for their original team. Of the 39 Super Bowl winners, 20 of them were first round quarterbacks (51%), with 15 of them (38%) playing for their original team.
You may wonder why I insist on including all first round quarterbacks into this discussion, not just the ones that won with their original teams. The reason is because we are attempting to isolate the single general managing decision of whether or not to spend a first round draft pick on a quarterback. If there are quarterbacks such as Steve Young, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Kerry Collins, and Trent Dilfer who are leaving their original teams and appearing in and/or winning Super Bowls with other teams, those anomalies reflect general managing decisions that took place subsequent to the draft decision. Nobody put a gun to the Buccaneers’ heads and forced them to trade Steve Young to the 49ers. Drafting Young, as it turns out, was indeed a great idea. Letting him go? Not such a great idea.
Conclusions
It should strike the reader that more than half of all Super Bowl contenders since the game’s invention have been led by a first round quarterback. I can guarantee that there is no other position in football in which you would find such a phenomenon. It should also strike the reader that first round quarterbacks are 20-15 in the big game itself, while non-first round quarterbacks are 18-25 in the big game. Not only is a team that appears in a Super Bowl likely to do so with a first round quarterback leading the charge, but teams that have a first round quarterback leading the way in their Super Bowl appearance are more likely to emerge victorious than teams that do not sport a first round quarterback at the helm.
Put into terms of expected value of Super Bowls per first round draft pick, of the group of 83 decisions to draft a quarterback in the first round, the group has been rewarded with 35 Super Bowl appearances, and 20 Super Bowl victories. Put into real terms, drafting a first round quarterback gives you an expected value of 0.42 Super Bowl appearances, and 0.24 Super Bowl victories. Balancing against this are the relatively low numbers we discussed before, that only 22% of the 83 quarterbacks account for that expected value of Super Bowl appearances, with only 13% accounting for the expected value of 0.24 Super Bowl victories. What this means is to the victor go the spoils. Though drafting a first round quarterback gives you only a one in five chance of getting one that appears in a Super Bowl, getting that one in five means an AVERAGE of 2 Super Bowl appearances led by that quarterback, with an AVERAGE of one Super Bowl victory.
Isn’t that worth the chance?
by Chris Kouffman
There is a common myth out there that drafting a quarterback in the first round makes you about as likely to go to the Super Bowl as it would be for Anna Kournikova to suddenly fall in love with you after getting her autograph at a tennis tournament.
There have been a number of gerrymandered statistics offered showing how few first round quarterbacks there are that have won Super Bowls with the team that drafted them between Super Bowls XXX through XXXIX, minus Super Bowls XXXI through XXXIII, plus Super Bowl XXVI…Well, you get the picture.
Notice the key emphasis on the term “the team that drafted them.†What exactly are we looking at here? We are looking at the investment of a first round pick in a rookie quarterback. Is the historical success of Eli Manning in New York, or Phil Rivers in San Diego, any less pertinent to the decision to use your first round draft pick on Quarterback X, just because Rivers was actually drafted by New York and Manning was actually drafted by San Diego? Likewise, just because John Elway was drafted by the Baltimore Colts, and subsequently traded to the Denver Broncos, do we toss away the results that the Broncos were able to achieve between 1984 and 1998? Should we toss Steve McNair from consideration because he was drafted by the Houston Oilers, which subsequently became the Tennessee Titans?
A Look at the Actual Numbers
Between 1965 and 2005, there were 83 quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. This represents approximately 12.5% of the 663 quarterbacks drafted during that time period. The above percentage is an overstated figure, since not every quarterback in the NFL in any given year was actually drafted.
Of the 83 first round draft picks, 18 of the quarterbacks have been to at least one Super Bowl, regardless of which team they showed up to the Big Show driving, representing approximately 22% of all first round draft pick quarterbacks during the period. Of those 18 quarterbacks, 11 of them emerged from the Super Bowl victorious, representing a 13% chance that your first round quarterback turns out to be a Super Bowl winner.
So what about this phenomenon where it seems that a bunch of first round quarterbacks that do get to the big game, do it with a team that did not draft them? Tossing out silly semantics, only 5 of the 18 first round quarterbacks that have played in the Super Bowl did so with their non-original team. Craig Morton is the only first round quarterback in NFL history with the distinct pleasure of having played in a Super Bowl with his original team, and subsequently playing in a Super Bowl with a different team. Overall, discounting quarterbacks that won with their non-original team leaves you with 13 first round quarterbacks who have played in at least one Super Bowl with their original team, and 7 first round quarterbacks who have won at least one Super Bowl with their original team, representing percentages of 16% and 8%, respectively.
So, does that mean that when you pick a quarterback in the NFL Draft, you only have a 16% chance of going to a Super Bowl with that quarterback? Absolutely not! It is true that any given first round quarterback picked only has a 16% chance of playing in AT LEAST one Super Bowl, but this does not equal the expected value of drafting a quarterback in the first round, put into terms of expected Super Bowls. The reason is the franchise effect that high quality quarterbacks can have. Picking up a legendary quarterback through the draft such as John Elway does not just get you one Super Bowl appearance. In Elway’s case, it got the Denver Broncos five Super Bowl appearances.
There have been 39 Super Bowls since the game was invented in 1967. That figure leaves 78 total Super Bowl appearances to be made during the period, and 39 victors. Of the 78 teams that have played in 39 Super Bowls, 35 of those teams featured a first round quarterback, which means 45% of all teams that have played in the Super Bowl did so with a first round quarterback. Of those 35 Super Bowl contenders, only 7 of them featured first round quarterbacks not playing with their original team, which leaves a decent 36% of all Super Bowl contenders featuring a first round quarterback playing for their original team. Of the 39 Super Bowl winners, 20 of them were first round quarterbacks (51%), with 15 of them (38%) playing for their original team.
You may wonder why I insist on including all first round quarterbacks into this discussion, not just the ones that won with their original teams. The reason is because we are attempting to isolate the single general managing decision of whether or not to spend a first round draft pick on a quarterback. If there are quarterbacks such as Steve Young, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Kerry Collins, and Trent Dilfer who are leaving their original teams and appearing in and/or winning Super Bowls with other teams, those anomalies reflect general managing decisions that took place subsequent to the draft decision. Nobody put a gun to the Buccaneers’ heads and forced them to trade Steve Young to the 49ers. Drafting Young, as it turns out, was indeed a great idea. Letting him go? Not such a great idea.
Conclusions
It should strike the reader that more than half of all Super Bowl contenders since the game’s invention have been led by a first round quarterback. I can guarantee that there is no other position in football in which you would find such a phenomenon. It should also strike the reader that first round quarterbacks are 20-15 in the big game itself, while non-first round quarterbacks are 18-25 in the big game. Not only is a team that appears in a Super Bowl likely to do so with a first round quarterback leading the charge, but teams that have a first round quarterback leading the way in their Super Bowl appearance are more likely to emerge victorious than teams that do not sport a first round quarterback at the helm.
Put into terms of expected value of Super Bowls per first round draft pick, of the group of 83 decisions to draft a quarterback in the first round, the group has been rewarded with 35 Super Bowl appearances, and 20 Super Bowl victories. Put into real terms, drafting a first round quarterback gives you an expected value of 0.42 Super Bowl appearances, and 0.24 Super Bowl victories. Balancing against this are the relatively low numbers we discussed before, that only 22% of the 83 quarterbacks account for that expected value of Super Bowl appearances, with only 13% accounting for the expected value of 0.24 Super Bowl victories. What this means is to the victor go the spoils. Though drafting a first round quarterback gives you only a one in five chance of getting one that appears in a Super Bowl, getting that one in five means an AVERAGE of 2 Super Bowl appearances led by that quarterback, with an AVERAGE of one Super Bowl victory.
Isn’t that worth the chance?
