Assembling The 53: Not Much Room for Variance | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Assembling The 53: Not Much Room for Variance

GM_Davenport

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I always tell myself I'm going to hang around and interact more frequently, but for one reason or another life happens and I find myself busier than I care to be. I do have some free time now, though, and thought I would use it by giving my insight to the assembly of the Dolphins' 53 man roster.


Author's Note
For those that do not know me, I am a freelance NFL scout that worked last season on a full time basis with the Cleveland Browns. Unfortunately, when you work full time with an NFL franchise (even on an interim basis) you are extremely limited in what you are allowed to disclose. Your personal information becomes the property of the organization, and things as simple as sharing a scouting report with a friend can be viewed as a breach of contract. Most teams aren't quite that anal, but they can be if they choose to. This upcoming year I'll be working with the NFL Scouting Combine, so I won't be nearly as limited in what I am able to discuss. I also happen to be a Dolphins' fan, and have been for the entirety of my existence; so my job is usually scouting college players but my "hobby" is following the Dolphins.



One of the hardest things about assembling a team of 53 NFL players is the fact that inevitably you are going to be forced to cut players that are flat out better football players than some of the guys you keep. It's the nature of the business and the unfortunate truth for some talented prospects.


The Math Doesn't Quite Add Up
After the first round of cuts, teams will begin to sit down and discuss seriously the prospects that they definitively want to keep, and those that are expendable. Often, the first players discussed are those veterans that will have their salaries guaranteed for the season if they are on the Week 1 roster. For players with an injury history or poor work ethic reputations, this is usually the end of the road if they have displayed any lingering signs of their preconceived flaws.

For the Dolphins, this will likely mean the end of the David Garrard era. It was a risk worth taking, but for a 34 year old quarterback that is now displaying knee deterioration on top of a chronic back injury the risks outweigh the rewards. Before you say there's no risk in stashing Garrard at the bottom of the depth chart and allowing him to return to health, there is. No, the Dolphins do not need his $2 million salary for football reasons; however, you have to understand primarily who the General Manager of an NFL team has to answer to. Jeff Ireland works for Stephen Ross. There are some decisions that are financial risk/reward and the only risk in this circumstance is a detriment to the owner's wallet. General Managers like to remain employed. Owner's like to employ General Managers that can produce a competitive team under the salary cap. It's how this business works and the same principle that can be applied to any business.

On a speculative note, I highly doubt -- with the exception of maybe the Packers -- any team would claim David Garrard if he were to be released. This would give the Dolphins the flexibility to retain his services on speed dial should the team incur a quarterback injury, while also preventing his salary from being fully guaranteed.


I Hate The Player, But I Gotta Have 'Em

There are certain players on every team that all the coaches would love to cut, but for one reason or another they simply cannot. For example, every team must have three players that can 3-point edge rush with speed off the weakside. Jamaal Westerman is not one of the 53 best players in camp, and I can name at least 5 likely roster cuts that deserve his spot. However, he is one of the three best 3-point pass rushers the Dolphins have, and for that reason alone he will in all likelihood make the team.

Another prime example is Clyde Gates. I hate to be critical of the mental capacity of the players, but it is clear that mentally he has tremendous difficulty grasping NFL concepts. He's not listed last on the current depth chart because he doesn't have the ability to play in the NFL or because he's injured. He's listed last because in the meeting rooms he is the guy that is 10 days behind everyone else mentally. It's very clear on the football field too; I can recall two instances in the last preseason game alone where he was given a flanker drive concept that calls for sitting if it's zone or running if it's man and he misidentified the extremely primitive preseason coverage both times. Unfortunately for the coaching staff, they can't cut him. Every team needs one guy that can take the top off of a defense. If you don't have a single wide receiver that the defense must respect, speed wise, then you're in trouble. If a defense can play underneath coverage on you all day, it makes for a hell of a time trying to run or throw the ball. The NFL today is all about creating space, and speed creates space.


I Have To Keep 'Em Because The GM Says So
Any coach -- and I suspect all 32 coaches will at some point -- that says the 53 players they assembled gives them the best chance to win on Sunday is lying. Blatantly. There are certain players you keep solely for their potential, and in all likelihood they will spend all 16 weeks on the inactive list. It drives coaches nuts, but you can't cut 3rd or 4th round picks unless there was a true misevaluation of the player.

For this reason, Michael Egnew will make the final 53 along with Lamar Miller. Both players have great athletic ability and there is a lot to like about their potential, but they are not ready to play in the NFL yet. Egnew has a lot of work to do with his technique, at least a full season's worth, and Miller is not mentally ready to be instinctual enough to play on Sunday yet. The Dolphins don't need a 4th tight end, and Steve Slaton is better than Miller is today. However, the coaching staff will contradict both of those facts when they sit down to make the final cuts.

But, without further ado, let's get into the actual projected regular season depth chart -- position-by-position analysis to follow.


Drumroll please....



Offense (26)
First
SecondThirdReserve
QB
Ryan TannehillMatt MoorePat Devlin
HBReggie BushDaniel ThomasMarcus ThigpenLamar Miller
FBJorvorskie Lane
ZLegedu NaaneeBrian Hartline
XDavone BessMarlon Moore
YClyde GatesJulius Pruitt
TEAnthony FasanoCharles ClayJeron MastrudMichael Egnew
LTJake LongLydon Murtha
LGRichie Incognito
CMike PounceyJosh SamudaPractice Squad
RGArtis HicksNate GarnerRishard Matthews
RTJonathan MartinAndrew McDonald
Quinten Lawrence
Defense (24)
Jeff Fuller
First
SecondThirdReserveWill Yeatman
LEJared OdrickDerrick ShelbyAnderson Russell
RECameron WakeOlivier VernonJamaal WestermanB.J Cunningham
WTRandy StarksTony McdanielLes Brown
STPaul SoliaiKheeston Randall
SamKevin BurnettGary Guyton
MikeKarlos DansbyAustin Spitler
WillKoa MisiJosh Kaddu
LCBSean SmithNolan Carroll
RCBVontae DavisJonathan Wade
NickelRichard Marshall
FSChris ClemonsJimmy Wilson
SSReshad JonesTyrone Culver
Specialists (3)
K
Dan Carpenter
PBrandon Fields
LSJohn Denney


Quarterback - As discussed previously, Garrard is released due to financial liability and that leaves Tannehill as the starter, Moore as the backup, and Devlin as the permanant reserve.

Halfback - Bush is the no-brainer starter and Thomas is the only big bodied runner in camp that's worth anything (he does look significantly better, though). Marcus Thigpen is a player I like very much and I think he sticks over Steve Slaton. He has tremendous versatility, smooth hands, great lateral quickness, and I think he'll make a comfortable living as the starting KR in addition to a passing game specialist on offense. I project Thigpen to make the team and remain active every week that he is healthy. Miller will be a consistent reserve and makes the team on potential.

Fullback - Jorvorskie Lane plays a position that is going out of style, but it is also the position that sees the most turnover of any position in the NFL. Teams recycle their FBs like plastic. He is the Dolphins' flavor of 2012 and seized a rare opportunity to play professional football.

Wide Receiver
Z- Naanee has really been the only receiver in camp that can play the Z position with any sort of consistency. In reality, he likely would not make more than half of the teams in the NFL -- but he will technically be the Dolphins' No. 1 receiver this year. I project Brian Hartline as a 60/40 direct backup if he ever gets healthy. If he is unable to recover from his calf injury and finds his way onto IR, I suspect Jeff Fuller or Rishard Matthews will take his place. Both of those players will be safe making it to the practice squad though.

X- Bess has made a living in the slot but I suspect he'll find himself outside more this season, due to being the only receiver on the roster that can consistently beat press coverage. The X sees more press coverage than any other position, and for that reason I do not project a direct backup for Bess. In fact, I would be surprised if he does not play greater than 80% of the Dolphins' offensive snaps this season. Moore makes the team because he is simply the best of the rest -- he has a lot of athletic ability and can contribute if necessary, but I wouldn't anticipate a Miles Austin breakout from him.

Y- Gates make this team primarily on speed, and Julius Pruitt makes this team primarily for his ability to play special teams and his ability to share the load with Gates. Pruitt is the only other player that has the speed to take the top off of a defense and will likely play a great deal in 4-wide sets.

Tight End
- Fasano and Clay are locks, while Mastrud -- who is vastly underrated -- defeats the competition for the third tight end. Egnew is retained on potential only and will be a gameday reserve. I suspect Charles Clay will have a highly productive season at a number of different positions on the offense.

Offensive Line - Long, Incognito, Pouncey, and Martin are locks. Murtha and Garner are serviceable backups that will be retained for their versatility (ideal from a numbers perspective for offensive linemen). Josh Samuda is a nice project that showed too much promise in the preseason to make it to the practice squad. He's not NFL ready yet, but he gets outstanding leverage and will likely find himself starting in a couple seasons with the right coaching. The only real decision to be made here is whether Artis Hicks or John Jerry make the team. I don't see any circumstance where the Dolphins keep more than 8 offensive linemen. I wouldn't be surprised if Jerry makes it due to youth and potential, but for now I project Hicks.

Defensive Line
LE - Derrick Shelby is one of the most intriguing prospects the Dolphins have. He needs to improve his upper body strength, there is no question about that. There will be times this season -- and he will get significant minutes -- that he gets pushed around and looks every bit like a UDFA. However, there will also be times that he flashes his potential and he will get better as the season progresses. I would not be surprised if he finished the season with 5+ sacks.

RE - Olivier Vernon has a lot of work to do. The guy has a motor and can serviceably rush the passer on guaranteed passing downs. He's also a major liability against the run and a bit of a one-trick-pony at this point. He will get spot duty, and like Shelby improve as the season progresses. Westerman makes the team due to numbers, but likely to the ire of the coaching staff and personnel management who will have to cut a better player to retain him.

WT - Starks should have an outstanding season. Weakside 3-technique is his natural position and I suspect he will follow up with a Pro Bowl performance. McDaniel is one of the better backup defensive linemen in the NFL. As the Giants have clearly displayed, though, it is imperative to have depth along your defensive line.

ST - Soliai will likely leave the field on passing situations so that Odrick can slide over, but he still one of the best run defenders in the NFL. Kheeston Randall has flashed enough to warrant a roster spot, but barring an injury he will likely find himself inactive all season.

Linebacker
Sam - For reasons that I cannot understand, they are playing Kevin Burnett on the strongside of the offense and Koa Misi on the weakside. It boggles my mind, but Mike Zimmer tends to do a lot of that and I suspect Kevin Coyle picked up a thing or two. Gary Guyton makes the team due to lack of talent from the competition.

Mike - Dansby is likely the only linebacker on the Dolphins that would start on most 4-3 teams. Clearly a weakness of the team, I suspect drastic changes in 2013. Spitler makes the team for the same reason as Guyton.

Will - Misi looks noticeably awkward playing out of position in the new defense, but there is literally no other option. Kaddu makes the team on potential and due to the fact that there are very few linebackers in Dolphins' training camp that would even be looked at by most teams.

Cornerback - Sooner or later Vontae Davis will recover his boundary corner position and Marshall, who is still a very good football player, will find plenty of rotational action as well as nickel work. Davis is just too talented to relegate to spot work and special teams. Sean Smith, at times, looks like the best player on the Dolphins' team period. He has made overwhelming leaps in practice, and if he can play with consistency he will find himself in the Pro Bowl. Jonathan Wade makes the team out of the necessity.

Safety - A position of concern, but not much room for leeway as far as players. Jimmy Wilson will probably find himself playing more than even he thought he would. Instinctually, he seems to be the best safety that the Dolphins have. Unfortunately, it is a new position for him and mistakes will be made.


Congratulations, You Made It, Now Turn In Your Playbook
Every year on almost every team there are players that make the final 53 man roster only to find themselves unemployed two days later. I suspect this year will be no different as Jeff Ireland typically makes a habit out of scrounging other teams' trash for gold. I think Jamaal Westerman will be the first to go if a respectable young pass rusher is available. I also think Josh Kaddu shouldn't take out a mortgage just yet.

Outside of those two, there aren't too many holes that can be filled. The roster already has a sizeable amount of long term prospects, so any player you pick up you would expect to contribute immediately. There just aren't that many players out there -- after all, they were cut for a reason.


Ok, You Didn't Make It, But Will You Run Our Scout Team?

The practice squad I project is based entirely on potential. Before you say some of the players, such as Matthews, will never make it to the practice squad; remember, there are 1200 players that are about the be cut in the next week. The only player that may get picked up is Les Brown -- if a team with a bunch of aging tight ends decide they want to take a flier on a prospect they can stash on the inactive list all season. He generated a lot of interest in the offseason, but he hasn't shown much of anything thus far.

Andrew McDonald and Will Yeatman are both players I like very much. I think both can be serviceable backups in the NFL if they are given a year to get their bodies in the right condition. Anderson Russell is a player that has a lower ceiling but will likely be invited to the practice squad because he can easily jump up and play if there is an injury. Same goes for Matthews, Cunningham, and Fuller. Quinten Lawrence is another player with a lot of upside that could take Wade's spot if he struggles.


Parting Notes
There are always surprises when the final 53 gets released. However, the one point I wanted to make in all of this is that even though you invited 90 players to training camp, they really aren't vying for 53 spots. Typically, it's going to be 40 guys vying for roughly 3-5 spots. There are certain players that will make the team no matter what happens in training camp, and there are certain players you have to keep because of one attribute (speed, edge rushing, etc.). The final assembly of a 53 man roster is all about finding the best players to fill certain roles. Often, there are only one or two players in all of training camp that can fill those roles.

Another thing to note, and this goes for every point of view on everything in the NFL, is that all of this is speculative and opinion based. My opinions are certainly not echoed by everyone in the league and the game is always changing. I do hope, though, that at the very least it was an interesting and informative read and I hope to hear your views as well.
 
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would hold on to Hogan instead of BJ, and Jerry might stick, MIGHT...other than that, spot on!!
 
:goodpost:

Good post as usual, hope to continue seeing more posts from you this season.
 
Excellent read, thanks.

I can't see Marlon Moore sticking and would question Hicks over Jerry a lot, but that's the beauty of predicting what is yet to happen!

Really appreciate you taking the considerable time to write this.
 
i'm sorry brother but i'd fire you on the spot if you said sean smith looks like the best player on the roster period at times...

interesting read...
 
Hicks should make the roster over Garner. He has more experience in a ZBS and can play every position Garner can play except center, I think. But you don't need a backup center if you keep Samuda.

I'd rather keep a Matthews or Cunningham over Marlon Moore, but as I said in another thread, having such mediocre starters means you have to keep fewer "potential" players around.

I don't see Pat Devlin as a long term backup. With the roster rules the way they are, if you're keeping a 3rd QB it should be with an eye to trade him down the road, and I can't see any team looking at a guy with Devlin's tools and seeing a long term starter. I'd rather dump him and keep the extra WR.
 
i'm sorry brother but i'd fire you on the spot if you said sean smith looks like the best player on the roster period at times...

interesting read...

And with good reason.

He's just one of those players that when they put it all together, even for one play, it's beautiful to watch. I don't know if he'll ever play with the consistency to reach his maximum potential, but if he does we'll see an all star.

That said, if I was putting together a team and I could take one player from the Dolphins, it's safe to say Sean Smith wouldn't be the pick.
 
And with good reason.

He's just one of those players that when they put it all together, even for one play, it's beautiful to watch. I don't know if he'll ever play with the consistency to reach his maximum potential, but if he does we'll see an all star.

That said, if I was putting together a team and I could take one player from the Dolphins, it's safe to say Sean Smith wouldn't be the pick.


he's never gonna put it all together...he can't match feet or balance with quality wrs in this league...he's always off balance or having to take extra recovery steps when a wr puts his foot in the ground and cuts or gears down...and it's that lack of balance and feet for the position and those extra false steps coupled with a lack of quick acceleration that creates the separation in the route for the ball to arrive...and then once that separation is there he's such a woeful arms only tackler no hip drive no power thru that guys gain so many yac
 
would hold on to Hogan instead of BJ, and Jerry might stick, MIGHT...other than that, spot on!!

Hogan is just one of those guys that has gotten so much publicity and can fill a very specific role for a team that needs him. I don't see him making the 53, not because he's not one of the best overall receivers, the Dolphins just happen to have 2 other players that fill the same role.

I also agree about Jerry. It will be Jerry or Hicks, but not both. My guess is as good as any, but I base my projection of off a west coast team having no use for a 360 pound offensive lineman. If he cuts his weight, he is far and away the superior talent -- he also has youth to his advantage too. Murtha and Garner are the depth players though. Hicks could potentially replace Garner also, but in my mind I have a hard time seeing both Hicks and Jerry on the same team.
 
What a great post, I enjoyed reading it. As someone who has actually worked as a professional scout, I have two questions
for you:

1. What do you think of Ryan Tannehill? Do you think we finally found or franchise qb?

2. Is our receiver corps really as bad as it seems?
 
he's never gonna put it all together...he can't match feet or balance with quality wrs in this league...he's always off balance or having to take extra recovery steps when a wr puts his foot in the ground and cuts or gears down...and it's that lack of balance and feet for the position and those extra false steps coupled with a lack of quick acceleration that creates the separation in the route for the ball to arrive...and then once that separation is there he's such a woeful arms only tackler no hip drive no power thru that guys gain so many yac

I think a lot of the balance issues have had a lot to do with the constant weight fluctuation he's been undergoing since his arrival. He was asked to put on weight, lose it, put it on again, and lose it again. I think part of his struggles were due to his, and the coaches, inability to find a suitable playing weight. When you're fluctuating more than 20 pounds per season it's difficult to develop the muscle memory in your legs so that you don't lose speed in and out of your breaks.

All of your observations are correct and I think almost everyone would agree -- the film doesn't lie. I just tend to be from the school of thought that they are correctable.

Maybe, maybe not.
 
I think a lot of the balance issues have had a lot to do with the constant weight fluctuation he's been undergoing since his arrival. He was asked to put on weight, lose it, put it on again, and lose it again. I think part of his struggles were due to his, and the coaches, inability to find a suitable playing weight. When you're fluctuating more than 20 pounds per season it's difficult to develop the muscle memory in your legs so that you don't lose speed in and out of your breaks.

All of your observations are correct and I think almost everyone would agree -- the film doesn't lie. I just tend to be from the school of thought that they are correctable.

Maybe, maybe not.

if you ask me the length is the problem...he's too long...i'm not a fan of boundary cbs over 6 ft 1...smith at 6 ft 3 is lanky and doesn't have the true elite physical tools to play a high end boundary cb...the weight thing is odd...there's no way i believe that guys playing at 20 lbs less than last year right now...imo his future in pro football is gonna be a extra db in dime type thing kinda what i envision jimmy wilson will be playing this year...on the boundary i see a flat out liability...it's hard though cause my god he's the worst tackling db in football almost...gives darius butler a run for his money
 
I always tell myself I'm going to hang around and interact more frequently, but for one reason or another life happens and I find myself busier than I care to be. I do have some free time now, though, and thought I would use it by giving my insight to the assembly of the Dolphins' 53 man roster.


Author's Note
For those that do not know me, I am a freelance NFL scout that worked last season on a full time basis with the Cleveland Browns. Unfortunately, when you work full time with an NFL franchise (even on an interim basis) you are extremely limited in what you are allowed to disclose. Your personal information becomes the property of the organization, and things as simple as sharing a scouting report with a friend can be viewed as a breach of contract. Most teams aren't quite that anal, but they can be if they choose to. This upcoming year I'll be working with the NFL Scouting Combine, so I won't be nearly as limited in what I am able to discuss. I also happen to be a Dolphins' fan, and have been for the entirety of my existence; so my job is usually scouting college players but my "hobby" is following the Dolphins.



One of the hardest things about assembling a team of 53 NFL players is the fact that inevitably you are going to be forced to cut players that are flat out better football players than some of the guys you keep. It's the nature of the business and the unfortunate truth for some talented prospects.


The Math Doesn't Quite Add Up
After the first round of cuts, teams will begin to sit down and discuss seriously the prospects that they definitively want to keep, and those that are expendable. Often, the first players discussed are those veterans that will have their salaries guaranteed for the season if they are on the Week 1 roster. For players with an injury history or poor work ethic reputations, this is usually the end of the road if they have displayed any lingering signs of their preconceived flaws.

For the Dolphins, this will likely mean the end of the David Garrard era. It was a risk worth taking, but for a 34 year old quarterback that is now displaying knee deterioration on top of a chronic back injury the risks outweigh the rewards. Before you say there's no risk in stashing Garrard at the bottom of the depth chart and allowing him to return to health, there is. No, the Dolphins do not need his $2 million salary for football reasons; however, you have to understand primarily who the General Manager of an NFL team has to answer to. Jeff Ireland works for Stephen Ross. There are some decisions that are financial risk/reward and the only risk in this circumstance is a detriment to the owner's wallet. General Managers like to remain employed. Owner's like to employ General Managers that can produce a competitive team under the salary cap. It's how this business works and the same principle that can be applied to any business.

On a speculative note, I highly doubt -- with the exception of maybe the Packers -- any team would claim David Garrard if he were to be released. This would give the Dolphins the flexibility to retain his services on speed dial should the team incur a quarterback injury, while also preventing his salary from being fully guaranteed.


I Hate The Player, But I Gotta Have 'Em

There are certain players on every team that all the coaches would love to cut, but for one reason or another they simply cannot. For example, every team must have three players that can 3-point edge rush with speed off the weakside. Jamaal Westerman is not one of the 53 best players in camp, and I can name at least 5 likely roster cuts that deserve his spot. However, he is one of the three best 3-point pass rushers the Dolphins have, and for that reason alone he will in all likelihood make the team.

Another prime example is Clyde Gates. I hate to be critical of the mental capacity of the players, but it is clear that mentally he has tremendous difficulty grasping NFL concepts. He's not listed last on the current depth chart because he doesn't have the ability to play in the NFL or because he's injured. He's listed last because in the meeting rooms he is the guy that is 10 days behind everyone else mentally. It's very clear on the football field too; I can recall two instances in the last preseason game alone where he was given a flanker drive concept that calls for sitting if it's zone or running if it's man and he misidentified the extremely primitive preseason coverage both times. Unfortunately for the coaching staff, they can't cut him. Every team needs one guy that can take the top off of a defense. If you don't have a single wide receiver that the defense must respect, speed wise, then you're in trouble. If a defense can play underneath coverage on you all day, it makes for a hell of a time trying to run or throw the ball. The NFL today is all about creating space, and speed creates space.


I Have To Keep 'Em Because The GM Says So
Any coach -- and I suspect all 32 coaches will at some point -- that says the 53 players they assembled gives them the best chance to win on Sunday is lying. Blatantly. There are certain players you keep solely for their potential, and in all likelihood they will spend all 16 weeks on the inactive list. It drives coaches nuts, but you can't cut 3rd or 4th round picks unless there was a true misevaluation of the player.

For this reason, Michael Egnew will make the final 53 along with Lamar Miller. Both players have great athletic ability and there is a lot to like about their potential, but they are not ready to play in the NFL yet. Egnew has a lot of work to do with his technique, at least a full season's worth, and Miller is not mentally ready to be instinctual enough to play on Sunday yet. The Dolphins don't need a 4th tight end, and Steve Slaton is better than Miller is today. However, the coaching staff will contradict both of those facts when they sit down to make the final cuts.

But, without further ado, let's get into the actual projected regular season depth chart -- position-by-position analysis to follow.


Drumroll please....



Offense (26)
First

Second
Third
Reserve
QB

Ryan Tannehill
Matt Moore
Pat Devlin
HB
Reggie Bush
Daniel Thomas
Marcus Thigpen
Lamar Miller
FB
Jorvorskie Lane
Z
Legedu Naanee
Brian Hartline
X
Davone Bess
Marlon Moore
Y
Clyde Gates
Julius Pruitt
TE
Anthony Fasano
Charles Clay
Jeron Mastrud
Michael Egnew
LT
Jake Long
Lydon Murtha
LG
Richie Incognito
C
Mike Pouncey
Josh Samuda
Practice Squad

RG
Artis Hicks
Nate Garner
Rishard Matthews
RT
Jonathan Martin
Andrew McDonald
Quinten Lawrence
Defense (24)

Jeff Fuller
First

Second
Third
Reserve
Will Yeatman
LE
Jared Odrick
Derrick Shelby
Anderson Russell
RE
Cameron Wake
Olivier Vernon
Jamaal Westerman
B.J Cunningham
WT
Randy Starks
Tony Mcdaniel
Les Brown
ST
Paul Soliai
Kheeston Randall
Sam
Kevin Burnett
Gary Guyton
Mike
Karlos Dansby
Austin Spitler
Will
Koa Misi
Josh Kaddu
LCB
Sean Smith
Nolan Carroll
RCB
Vontae Davis
Jonathan Wade
Nickel
Richard Marshall
FS
Chris Clemons
Jimmy Wilson
SS
Reshad Jones
Tyrone Culver
Specialists (3)
K

Dan Carpenter
P
Brandon Fields
LS
John Denney


Quarterback - As discussed previously, Garrard is released due to financial liability and that leaves Tannehill as the starter, Moore as the backup, and Devlin as the permanant reserve.

Halfback - Bush is the no-brainer starter and Thomas is the only big bodied runner in camp that's worth anything (he does look significantly better, though). Marcus Thigpen is a player I like very much and I think he sticks over Steve Slaton. He has tremendous versatility, smooth hands, great lateral quickness, and I think he'll make a comfortable living as the starting KR in addition to a passing game specialist on offense. I project Thigpen to make the team and remain active every week that he is healthy. Miller will be a consistent reserve and makes the team on potential.

Fullback - Jorvorskie Lane plays a position that is going out of style, but it is also the position that sees the most turnover of any position in the NFL. Teams recycle their FBs like plastic. He is the Dolphins' flavor of 2012 and seized a rare opportunity to play professional football.

Wide Receiver
Z- Naanee has really been the only receiver in camp that can play the Z position with any sort of consistency. In reality, he likely would not make more than half of the teams in the NFL -- but he will technically be the Dolphins' No. 1 receiver this year. I project Brian Hartline as a 60/40 direct backup if he ever gets healthy. If he is unable to recover from his calf injury and finds his way onto IR, I suspect Jeff Fuller or Rishard Matthews will take his place. Both of those players will be safe making it to the practice squad though.

X- Bess has made a living in the slot but I suspect he'll find himself outside more this season, due to being the only receiver on the roster that can consistently beat press coverage. The X sees more press coverage than any other position, and for that reason I do not project a direct backup for Bess. In fact, I would be surprised if he does not play greater than 80% of the Dolphins' offensive snaps this season. Moore makes the team because he is simply the best of the rest -- he has a lot of athletic ability and can contribute if necessary, but I wouldn't anticipate a Miles Austin breakout from him.

Y- Gates make this team primarily on speed, and Julius Pruitt makes this team primarily for his ability to play special teams and his ability to share the load with Gates. Pruitt is the only other player that has the speed to take the top off of a defense and will likely play a great deal in 4-wide sets.

Tight End
- Fasano and Clay are locks, while Mastrud -- who is vastly underrated -- defeats the competition for the third tight end. Egnew is retained on potential only and will be a gameday reserve. I suspect Charles Clay will have a highly productive season at a number of different positions on the offense.

Offensive Line - Long, Incognito, Pouncey, and Martin are locks. Murtha and Garner are serviceable backups that will be retained for their versatility (ideal from a numbers perspective for offensive linemen). Josh Samuda is a nice project that showed too much promise in the preseason to make it to the practice squad. He's not NFL ready yet, but he gets outstanding leverage and will likely find himself starting in a couple seasons with the right coaching. The only real decision to be made here is whether Artis Hicks or John Jerry make the team. I don't see any circumstance where the Dolphins keep more than 8 offensive linemen. I wouldn't be surprised if Jerry makes it due to youth and potential, but for now I project Hicks.

Defensive Line
LE - Derrick Shelby is one of the most intriguing prospects the Dolphins have. He needs to improve his upper body strength, there is no question about that. There will be times this season -- and he will get significant minutes -- that he gets pushed around and looks every bit like a UDFA. However, there will also be times that he flashes his potential and he will get better as the season progresses. I would not be surprised if he finished the season with 5+ sacks.

RE - Olivier Vernon has a lot of work to do. The guy has a motor and can serviceably rush the passer on guaranteed passing downs. He's also a major liability against the run and a bit of a one-trick-pony at this point. He will get spot duty, and like Shelby improve as the season progresses. Westerman makes the team due to numbers, but likely to the ire of the coaching staff and personnel management who will have to cut a better player to retain him.

WT - Starks should have an outstanding season. Weakside 3-technique is his natural position and I suspect he will follow up with a Pro Bowl performance. McDaniel is one of the better backup defensive linemen in the NFL. As the Giants have clearly displayed, though, it is imperative to have depth along your defensive line.

ST - Soliai will likely leave the field on passing situations so that Odrick can slide over, but he still one of the best run defenders in the NFL. Kheeston Randall has flashed enough to warrant a roster spot, but barring an injury he will likely find himself inactive all season.

Linebacker
Sam - For reasons that I cannot understand, they are playing Kevin Burnett on the strongside of the offense and Koa Misi on the weakside. It boggles my mind, but Mike Zimmer tends to do a lot of that and I suspect Kevin Coyle picked up a thing or two. Gary Guyton makes the team due to lack of talent from the competition.

Mike - Dansby is likely the only linebacker on the Dolphins that would start on most 4-3 teams. Clearly a weakness of the team, I suspect drastic changes in 2013. Spitler makes the team for the same reason as Guyton.

Will - Misi looks noticeably awkward playing out of position in the new defense, but there is literally no other option. Kaddu makes the team on potential and due to the fact that there are very few linebackers in Dolphins' training camp that would even be looked at by most teams.

Cornerback - Sooner or later Vontae Davis will recover his boundary corner position and Marshall, who is still a very good football player, will find plenty of rotational action as well as nickel work. Davis is just too talented to relegate to spot work and special teams. Sean Smith, at times, looks like the best player on the Dolphins' team period. He has made overwhelming leaps in practice, and if he can play with consistency he will find himself in the Pro Bowl. Jonathan Wade makes the team out of the necessity.

Safety - A position of concern, but not much room for leeway as far as players. Jimmy Wilson will probably find himself playing more than even he thought he would. Instinctually, he seems to be the best safety that the Dolphins have. Unfortunately, it is a new position for him and mistakes will be made.


Congratulations, You Made It, Now Turn In Your Playbook
Every year on almost every team there are players that make the final 53 man roster only to find themselves unemployed two days later. I suspect this year will be no different as Jeff Ireland typically makes a habit out of scrounging other teams' trash for gold. I think Jamaal Westerman will be the first to go if a respectable young pass rusher is available. I also think Josh Kaddu shouldn't take out a mortgage just yet.

Outside of those two, there aren't too many holes that can be filled. The roster already has a sizeable amount of long term prospects, so any player you pick up you would expect to contribute immediately. There just aren't that many players out there -- after all, they were cut for a reason.


Ok, You Didn't Make It, But Will You Run Our Scout Team?

The practice squad I project is based entirely on potential. Before you say some of the players, such as Matthews, will never make it to the practice squad; remember, there are 1200 players that are about the be cut in the next week. The only player that may get picked up is Les Brown -- if a team with a bunch of aging tight ends decide they want to take a flier on a prospect they can stash on the inactive list all season. He generated a lot of interest in the offseason, but he hasn't shown much of anything thus far.

Andrew McDonald and Will Yeatman are both players I like very much. I think both can be serviceable backups in the NFL if they are given a year to get their bodies in the right condition. Anderson Russell is a player that has a lower ceiling but will likely be invited to the practice squad because he can easily jump up and play if there is an injury. Same goes for Matthews, Cunningham, and Fuller. Quinten Lawrence is another player with a lot of upside that could take Wade's spot if he struggles.


Parting Notes
There are always surprises when the final 53 gets released. However, the one point I wanted to make in all of this is that even though you invited 90 players to training camp, they really aren't vying for 53 spots. Typically, it's going to be 40 guys vying for roughly 3-5 spots. There are certain players that will make the team no matter what happens in training camp, and there are certain players you have to keep because of one attribute (speed, edge rushing, etc.). The final assembly of a 53 man roster is all about finding the best players to fill certain roles. Often, there are only one or two players in all of training camp that can fill those roles.

Another thing to note, and this goes for every point of view on everything in the NFL, is that all of this is speculative and opinion based. My opinions are certainly not echoed by everyone in the league and the game is always changing. I do hope, though, that at the very least it was an interesting and informative read and I hope to hear your views as well.

Nice write up but, I dont see how Matthews dosent make the team. From where I sit, the guy not only has serious potential, but he might just be the best WR we have right now.

I also feel Fuller has an outside chance of making it and wouldnt mind at all if he did. He is definately a PS keeper if he dosent make the 53.

---------- Post added at 02:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:01 PM ----------

he's never gonna put it all together...he can't match feet or balance with quality wrs in this league...he's always off balance or having to take extra recovery steps when a wr puts his foot in the ground and cuts or gears down...and it's that lack of balance and feet for the position and those extra false steps coupled with a lack of quick acceleration that creates the separation in the route for the ball to arrive...and then once that separation is there he's such a woeful arms only tackler no hip drive no power thru that guys gain so many yac

Short version..... Sean Smith blows.
 
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