Probably less than a 25% chance of that. Vegas had us pegged right at 7.5 wins and that's exactly where we are. I remember looking at odds the year Manning was going to come to Miami, our wins went up to 11. When he decided elsewhere, they went down to 8.
Come on. Don't try stuff like that when I'm around. That's the epitome of bar stool. There's a college football site with a few guys who make up betting oriented material and get away with it until I arrive. I'm not claiming it's a special talent, merely something I've been exposed to for decades so naturally you pick up the basics.
The sportsbooks aren't that stupid. Those season win over/unders go up late, after the free agency period. Peyton Manning signed in March. The first numbers showed up in late May, two months later.
Here's a link from that year, noting the first release of the over/unders. It is from late May and courtesy of an offshore site. None of the Nevada properties had gone up yet. Cantor did so a few days later:
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=274471&article
You'll note the mention in the article that the major offshore joint 5Dimes posted over/unders after the Super Bowl but yanked them during the free agency period. That was a standard practice years ago but now the books are hesitant to go that route. Nobody posts them and leaves them up when all the pivotal decisions are being made.
Denver was moved upward to 9.5 and 10, after Manning's signing was known. That should demonstrate the Dolphins would not have been adjusted all the way up to 11. As I've emphasized, there is math involved. You can't merely guess a number and say that sounds good. For a team to have a season win total of 11 it means their average projected pointspread needs to be 5.5 point favoritism. That's home and road. The posters here who assign 11 wins to the Dolphins prior to the season don't seem to have any comprehension of the burden required. Heck, we'll win all the toss up games and many as underdog. That finds its way to 11. No problem.
I'll allow benefit of a doubt and say you might have read somebody who claimed the Dolphins would have been set at 11 upon Manning's arrival. But that was a bar stool caliber guess. The 11 never existed and was not bettable.
