Becks accuracy

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I know you posted those yesterday but it wasn't clear your methodology. You think that methodology is actually accurate??? I mean, you think these guys note EVERY sack, note EVERY touchdown, EVERY interception, etc? I certainly don't. They're not setting out to do that, it's that simple. It makes your entire statistical construct really a farse, because you're assuming that the primary observation data is both COMPLETE and UNBIASED. First off, it's not complete. I've seen one blog have four separate notes of a guy throwing the ball into the end zone, total of four times, and then another blog about the same practice only noting ONE of those end zone passes. I'm sorry man, I realize you're trying to do the right thing and reach for something objective that you can settle on aside from all the subjective observations...but when the data can be THAT far off, it's so inaccurate as to be comedic.

In the end, that statistical construct can't tell me that John Beck has ONLY thrown 6 interceptions, and ONLY taken 8 sacks. It can tell me that he probably took a MINIMUM of 8 sacks and a MINIMUM of 6 interceptions...but that's about it. Likewise, you can say with fair certainty that Josh McCown threw a MINIMUM of 2 interceptions and took a MINIMUM of 3 sacks, but there is no way, no how you can say that he ONLY took 3 sacks and ONLY took 2 interceptions.

And bias in the frequency of observations about negative plays is exactly what some of us are accusing the bloggers of...so how are you going to disprove that by citing the information we're claiming is biased? That just doesn't stand up to logic, I'm sorry.

Parrot are you dizzy yet? lol I haven't seen this much spin on something since the last time I tuned in to CNN...


Josh McCown was a 3rd round pick once too...he felt pressure too....every QB coming out of college has flaws in their delivery tweaked and/or corrected. There are no such things as a "finished product" in terms of a prospect.

Beck's mechanics aren't what's holding him back..nor does he read blogs on the internet to see what everyone is saying about him...he's busy studying the playbook. Any "added pressure" that Beck feels isn't coming from outside sources...it's coming from him being pushed further and further down the depth chart by a rookie...didn't you use that scenario in an attempt to discern why Kircus may have been the one to call out Beck?

Is it really that unbelievable to you based off what you DO KNOW and HAVE SEEN with your own eye's from Beck that these bloggers just might not be painting the rosy picture for Beck that you hoped for because that's whats really happening? lol

 

[ckparrothead]

i'm pretty sure you said when we were discussing jake longs pass pro abilities paraphrasing "joe thomas feet didn't look that good one week into training camp." the preseason games and regular season games you're now referencing were after the fact. it's post #30 on the donald thomas thread

anyways... how about answering tedslimmjr's last question to you last night regarding derek hagan??? you said you had to go and that it would take too long i believe at the time. can you answer it now please???

and i'm not in any way trying to make accusations towards you.

I don't get your point. The exact statement was "And by the way, Joe Thomas didn't have Joe Thomas' feet, the first week into training camp." I explained this already. Scroll up if you want to read it. Otherwise the entire subject matter is off topic and I'm not going to talk about it anymore because it's derailing this thread.

I didn't have time for a really detailed explanation about why I trust CERTAIN observations about Derek Hagan, but I did write a shorter one that I feel explains it well enough. A receiver only has to make 3 or 4 plays during a game in order to end up with a great day. Sure, you could try and say that means he could be doing a ****ty job the entire day and just because he does his job 3 or 4 times all the sudden it's good. Well, that's true, but the odds are HIGHLY against it happening like that. And I do mean like Miami Dolphins 2008 Super Bowl odds. If you're not doing your job most of the time, and the QB dials up your number 3 or 4 times during a game, what are the chances that those 3 or 4 times happen to be times when you are doing your job? Seriously, walk through this with me. Say you're only doing your job on 30% of plays. Let's say the QB threw to you (accurately) only 4 times. What are the chances that you were only doing your job in general 30% of the time, but you happened to be doing your job on all four throws? 30% x 30% x 30% x 30% = 0.8%. Pretty low odds. I'd say that if you did make 4 plays out of 4 throws, then PROBABLY that 30% number is an inaccurate guess.

So anyway, like I said before, as a WR you don't need to make a ton of plays in order to reasonably guess that you were doing a good job out there. And so, when you get noted for like three or four notable plays, described by the bloggers, pretty reasonable to guess you did ok out there.

And aside from that, the coaches came right out and talked about how good Derek Hagan was doing before this training camp. That sets a certain background of credibility to the whole thing.

Anyway I'm not really sure how any of this really pertains to the topic at hand.

 

[chillwill3000]

just wanna note his accuracy is still there, go to miamidolphins.com and check out the 31st highlights. It shows the 3 qb's doing a drill throwing into a square in a net, beck nails 2 in a row and the other 2 qbs dont make any in, I think Henne even sailed one completely over the net. Its a small square, and obviously if its anywhere close to it, its a good pass but just sayin.

Now obviously beck has been struggling with the drills with pressure and the buzzer going off, but his accuracy is still there, despite this "new" throwing motion.

Was there any defense on the field? throwing into a net is one thing, finding open recievers and delivering the ball with accuracy with the defense bearing down on you is another.

 

[ckparrothead]

Well i dont know what to tell you, we cant go on opinion and cant go on stats because you have something to discredit anything anyone has to say about beck...i dont know what else to say other than i guess i will have to take cam corder and drive down to practice myself lol
I dont know what we can discuss or dispute any longer because stats and opinions dont matter so why are we talking then lol. We can talk about the sky maybe? Point is you are making it seem like the world is against Beck and nothing anyone says about him in TC is true except when they are saying he threw more touchdowns than anyone else in camp. (your words) So how can you discredit the writers(all of them) for talking bad stuff about Beck but then in the same breath use them as a source for accomplishment on Becks defense????

When I was talking about more TDs than the other guys, I was bringing up the internal inconsistency even within one particular blogger's note.

And it's convenient to say that I'm "disregarding stats" as if those stats are credibly gathered. Again, the bloggers are not out there telling us that every interception will be caught and noted by them. They've never said that, they're not striving for it, so why should you expect it? It's like hearing someone describe how poor the soup was at a restaurant and then assuming that all they ate was the soup. Um, no, they probably ate other things, just because they didn't mention the other things they ate doesn't mean they didn't eat anything else. The note about the bad soup was not intended to describe everything eaten, it was intended to describe the bad soup.

I can't be the only one that sees the inherent flaw in your methodology there.

 

[ZachThomas76]

I'm just wondering where you get those stats, to where you believe they are accurate?

Im just wondering where you get your stats to believe those others are inaccurate? lol Regarding Joe Thomas, the point is painfully obvious. TC occurs before preseason and regular season, yet you claimed he struggled with his feet in TC. Since you obviously werent there, you relied on a report to state that as fact. Now you are telling people to not take the reports on Beck as fact in this TC. I cant spell it out any clearer.

 

[ckparrothead]

Parrot are you dizzy yet? lol I haven't seen this much spin on something since the last time I tuned in to CNN...


Josh McCown was a 3rd round pick once too...he felt pressure too....every QB coming out of college has flaws in their delivery tweaked and/or corrected. There are no such things as a "finished product" in terms of a prospect.

Beck's mechanics aren't what's holding him back..nor does he read blogs on the internet to see what everyone is saying about him...he's busy studying the playbook. Any "added pressure" that Beck feels isn't coming from outside sources...it's coming from him being pushed further and further down the depth chart by a rookie...didn't you use that scenario in an attempt to discern why Kircus may have been the one to call out Beck?

Is it really that unbelievable to you based off what you DO KNOW and HAVE SEEN with your own eye's from Beck that these bloggers just might not be painting the rosy picture for Beck that you hoped for because that's whats really happening? lol

I've said many times now that the reality is that Beck is probably having a bad camp. HOWEVER, I also know that the writers are exaggerating and accentuating just how bad it is, while largely glossing over the other two. What is so difficult about that?

And by the way, you have zero idea whether Beck reads news stories, hears people on ESPN talking about how Parcells is likely to go with "his" guy, etc. I mean, why even bother making statements like that?

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

73.429% of stats are made up on the spot....

 

[ckparrothead]

Im just wondering where you get your stats to believe those others are inaccurate? lol

I've already cited the wide variation seen in the observation data for individual practice accounts as a perfectly acceptable reason to doubt the validity of those stats.

 

[godolphins1985]

When I was talking about more TDs than the other guys, I was bringing up the internal inconsistency even within one particular blogger's note.

And it's convenient to say that I'm "disregarding stats" as if those stats are credibly gathered. Again, the bloggers are not out there telling us that every interception will be caught and noted by them. They've never said that, they're not striving for it, so why should you expect it? It's like hearing someone describe how poor the soup was at a restaurant and then assuming that all they ate was the soup. Um, no, they probably ate other things, just because they didn't mention the other things they ate doesn't mean they didn't eat anything else. The note about the bad soup was not intended to describe everything eaten, it was intended to describe the bad soup.

I can't be the only one that sees the inherent flaw in your methodology there.

Dont know maybe you are, i mean whos to say that those guys are credible? YOU?? i mean know disrespect but who are you to say that they arnt credible? How do you know that they arnt marking every INT and sack, seems like they were when they say stuff like , "K becks turn is up and he completed 5 outta 9 passes and 2 were INT" I mean the guy lists all activities for the day and obviously has been writing everything the QB's do involving when they need to take a piss lol. So i dont see how they arnt recording everything, you think the QBs are doing 11 on 11's for hours? Of course not, but you reading to much into this topic and bashing these writers like they stole candy from you as a child.

 

[ckparrothead]

Dont know maybe you are, i mean whos to say that those guys are credible? YOU?? i mean know disrespect but who are you to say that they arnt credible? How do you know that they arnt marking every INT and sack, seems like they were when they say stuff like , "K becks turn is up and he completed 5 outta 9 passes and 2 were INT" I mean the guy lists all activities for the day and obviously has been writing everything the QB's do involving when they need to take a piss lol. So i dont see how they arnt recording everything, you think the QBs are doing 11 on 11's for hours? Of course not, but you reading to much into this topic and bashing these writers like they stole candy from you as a child.

Because they're not actually recording every single thing that happens, or every single throw. These guys are not statisticians and they don't claim to be. Yes, they frequently leave the field. Yes, different blog notes will have different accounts of how many interceptions were thrown, how many sacks, etc. It makes the data highly unreliable.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I've said many times now that the reality is that Beck is probably having a bad camp. HOWEVER, I also know that the writers are exaggerating and accentuating just how bad it is, while largely glossing over the other two. What is so difficult about that?

And by the way, you have zero idea whether Beck reads news stories, hears people on ESPN talking about how Parcells is likely to go with "his" guy, etc. I mean, why even bother making statements like that?

I've seen Beck play...that's whats so difficult about that...lol

If Beck doesn't have his nose in the playbook instead of reading news stories...that right there tells you he isn't going to make it out of this..

John Beck is a smart kid...he already knows Parcells is likely to go with "his" guy...anyone that's ever followed anything Parcells has ever done knows this..

Beck isn't Parcells mistake...he's the previous regimes mistake...Beck has to convince Parcells that he's capable of becoming a solid starter in this league to hang around...

One of Parcells 11 commandments for a QB is...."He must not have a panic button"....

Beck...clearly has one.

 

[ckparrothead]

well then, obviously theres only one solution. we need you to go to TC, record every single movement of every qb, and give us your unbiased report as seen through your trained eye.

I would settle for one guy, even among the journalists, who actually goes to every single practice, doesn't keep leaving the field during practcie, and says that it is his intention to record the result of every single pass.

Unfortunately, ya'll are assuming that the journalists have done exactly that, and the journalists have not declared any such intent.

 

[chillwill3000]

time well tell.

You know the thing is, that us fans expect so much from our team, and we want them to suceed so badly that we examine and scrutinize every little thing so much. I'm sure there are alot of quarterbacks around the league that are having bad days in camp. we just don't hear about it or care about it because it is not a concern for us. i was watching eagles practice yesterday on NFL network, and Mcnabb was making some horrible throws and threw a couple of picks. i bet there are eagles fans on their boards calling for his head. i just think we need to relax and little bit and settle down. i think we are overreacting a little bit. we will get a lot better idea of how Beck, Mcown, and Henne are doing in the preaseason games. if they all look like crap in preaseason, then we can panic.

 

[ZachThomas76]

I dont know, if I knew I was in a fight for my professional life at the moment, my head wouldnt leave the playbook.

 

[thedayafter]

To think that anyone at Dolphins TC has a clue what is going on other than the staff is laughable... plain and simple...

I should think everyone here really only cares that ONE of the QB's clearly emerge and show some consistancy of performance down the road... but... that may not happen either...

Let it play out boys... and chances are we're going to need more than one QB this season anyway...