I think Aaron Rodgers will be an awesome pro, but I am a little more worried that Alex Smith is being hyped too much based on intelligence that often times makes the guy a better coaching prospect than quarterback prospect. Smarter for QBs does not equal better. It's a lot like height. You like your QB's to be of a nice good height, say 6'4" or 6'5", but that doesn't mean a guy who is 6'7" or 6'8" is all the more coveted. That's not to say that I feel a guy should be knocked for his intelligence, I'm just saying that what would happen to his draft stock if he were of average intelligence? It would plummet. I feel a certain number of factors swirled together to make for Alex Smith being considered a possible #1 pick in the draft.
1. This QB situation WAS a two-horse race. But those horses were Aaron Rodgers and Matt Leinart. Then Rodgers team, lacking a healthy receiver with much college experience, took a bit of a downturn toward the bowl games, while Matt Leinart lit up the national championship game with pretty good, but not excellent passes. At this time, Alex Smith was rising, definitely a fast riser, but when I say fast riser, I mean like, rising from Round 2 to the middle of Round 1.
2. Matt Leinart declares that he's going BACK to USC. All the sudden, is this a one-horse race again? Should be, but teams like two-horse races in the draft. Alex Smith is a fast riser, why not toss him up against Rodgers?
3. Because of Phil Rivers syndrome. Phil Rivers has to be one of the most meteoric QB risers and controversial QB picks I've seen. Most scouts didn't even have him being a 1st round pick before the Senior Bowl. But all he does is win games. All Tom Brady does is win games, he won't flash you a bunch of draft skills. All Alex Smith does is win games...but why did his team win those games? I know the Gators think they've got themselves a goooood coach down there in Gainesville....
I think the Alex Smith situation has always been more hype than anything else. Everything about it screams of hype to me...from the circumstances under which he ended up being considered along side Aaron Rodgers, to his pro day workout that supposedly got a "standing ovation" which hasn't happened since....ever. If his pro day was so convincing, the best pro day since Troy Aikman, why is it that so many teams, including the 49ers and Phins, want to get another look? During that workout, Smith tossed the out-route to WRs who weren't running at full speed, and threw balls that some scouts have reported would have been batted down or intercepted in the pros. Is it any wonder that the 49ers brought Arnaz Battle and Brandon Lloyd out to Utah with them to work out with Smith?
The reasons are stacking. I semi-believe Boomoer when he says Scott McGloughan is in love with Smith, and will end up making him the #1 pick. But, I think a good mixture of hype has led to Smith's meteoric rise.
It's not that I believe Smith will be a bust, the next Ryan Leaf or Jim Druckenmiller or Heath Shuler. I just think he has been rising lately for all the wrong reasons. Meanwhile, Rodgers has been sinking for all the wrong reasons, namely his connection to Jeff Tedford, who coached the likes of Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, AJ Feeley, and Joey Harrington.
Rodgers had his best season under Tedford when Tedford did something uncharacteristic...had his runningbacks run the ball more than his quarterbacks threw it. At least, I've always thought of that being very uncharacteristic for Tedford.