BPA- Are We There, And a Hypothetical | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

BPA- Are We There, And a Hypothetical

The Goat said:
Unless I’m mistaken, Grier has openly stated that they’re going BPA.
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A claim I don't believe . . . unless he's changing his strategy in '24. I'm a firm believer no team has ever gone BPA every year in rds1-2. Nope. Just remember all the talking heads on draft night. when is the last time we've heard talking heads say 'hard to predict team x's pick. they always go BPA.' Nope. It's consistently 'team X needs a WR and ILB. It may be Lance Alworth.' They know teams don't have a BPA philosophy. Teams seldom select a position that is their strength unless they have no big needs. Now, I'll accept drafting BPA at a position of need.
Matter of fact, I and most here are still predicting OL, DL, ED, CB.
 
The Goat said:
For what it’s worth, I’m of the opinion that we’re going to see a HUGE run on Edge rushers between 10-20 for the exact reason I was just pontificating about, and that OL are going to drop for that very reason.

Turner, Latu, Verse, Chop, all gone by 20. Just my thinking.
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I hope you're right
 
I think Miami is somewhat in a position to take the BPA. Fortunately, offensive line is a strong suit in this draft and probably the Dolphins weakest position.

That seems like the most obvious pick for Miami. Grier almost always drafts for need.

As to the OP's question, it kind of reminds me of when the Dolphins took Vernon Carey over Vince Wilfork. I really wanted Wilfork and thought he would be the better pick.

At the time, the Dolphins badly needed help on the offensive line. Carey turned out to be a good player for Miami, but Wilfork had the better career.

Personally, I'd take Barton over Latu if that was the choice. Partly due to Latu's injury background.
 
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The whole idea of BPA is a myth that was created over the years by GM smokescreen speak. You pick players that will help your team the most based on your team’s needs.
 
phinsforlife said:
-Have the Dolphins put themselves in a spot where they can go BPA with their first two picks?

I think give or take close enough, need might over-ride something if their board has a guy rated 91 at a higher position of need, and the BPA is a 93 at a lesser position of need, they might go with the 91. But I think they are at the point where if the higher position of need is an 85, and the BPA is 93, they would take the BPA. Net/net after putting themselves in a really bad spot before FA with the cap jam they were in, they have navigated reasonably smartly and I think with purpose so they don't have gaping holes they are forced to fill in the draft. It seems they kind of did have an actual strategy to plug the holes prior to the draft and put themselves in a spot to go BPA.

-Hypothetical question. Using these players only for illustrative purposes only, it could be player A versus B to take the names and positions out of it. If the Dolphins drafted Graham Barton, and he filled a need at guard (low positional value), and turned out to be a good and productive NFL player, but not elite, while skipping over a guy like Laiatu Latu, who turns out to be an elite edge rusher (high positional value), would Barton still turn out to be a good draft pick in retrospect?

I honestly go back and forth on this. Am curious what other people think? Where I am coming out now, before other thoughts, is Barton would still have been an OK pick. Simply, you can do a lot worse, and draft a bust. At least he was pretty good. You will never be perfect all of the time. If these kinds of mistakes are your worst mistakes, you will still be pretty good.

Thoughts on both issues?
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No.
We have various holes (DL, OL, Edge) that need to be filled for the 2024 year.
We may need to think about WR to replace Hill (retirement?) or Waddle (can’t afford) but not for 2024.
 
I think Grier and staff will say the pick (whether at 21 or after a trade down) was BPA. I think they'll follow "their board". I think their board is partly based on need, scheme, and positional value, and of course on how good a prospect they see a player as, at their position(s). But that IS BPA according to them.

But to answer the OP, as I read it (could have read it wrong,I do it all the time😂), I, myself, don't feel the team should draft BPA. If they had a working crystal ball - yes, draft BPA, but giving the huge historic uncertainties- if I was GM, I'm drafting for need and positional value. And if that's hedging too much - I'm drafting for need at this point.
 
The Goat said:
For what it’s worth, I’m of the opinion that we’re going to see a HUGE run on Edge rushers between 10-20 for the exact reason I was just pontificating about, and that OL are going to drop for that very reason.

Turner, Latu, Verse, Chop, all gone by 20. Just my thinking.
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I could see that.
 
If Miami fixes their line, then whatever they do on.Defense becomes cream on top to what type of team they are.

They have a couple of elite, receivers, a TE that they got in the off-season that could Flourish in Miami's offense, a couple of RBs that are capable receivers, and dangerous with the ball in their hand, with a QB that has proved give him little time, he is very capable of still hurting you, but give him time, and you may need a calculator.

If you stop the pass, because of injury to receiver, or top pass-D, Miami has RBs that can take over a game, and force you to worry about them if the line gives them even a little opening.

The line can impact how goos Miami becomes more then any other unit.

I don't expect two linemen in 1st two picks (Tbough possible), but Miami is getting at least one quality linemen In First 2 picks.
 
VAFinsfan72 said:
We need to come away with 2 immediate starters with our first 2 draft picks.
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Absolutely. Looking at the roster, the two biggest areas of "current" need are probably LG and RG. It's hard to feel overly confident with Wynn and Eichenberg as projected starters. That's pretty bad on paper.

A DT who can rush the passer might be the next need. A few others... a long-term answer at LT, a third wide receiver, a safety, a better receiving tight end, a power running back. I guess that's it! LOL.
 
FWIW this blurb on ESPN (full article paywalled) is what prompted me to ask the questions in the OP. I didn't want to lead with the article because I thought it might influence the responses, so I tried to ask the questions a bit more generically. ESPN is stating the Dolphins will take Barton, because of need, but Latu is the better player. No idea if positional value is also part of their calculus (edge more valuable than guard), or if they just believe Latu is straight up better. My guess is probably both, but that is not clear from the ESPN text alone. In their article, for some of the other teams, the player that fills the need is the same player as the one that gets best value. Below the Dolphins blurb is the Seattle blurb, late pick, same guy for both categories. Sadly he probably will not be around for us:

21. Miami Dolphins​

Reid's pick that fills a big need: Graham Barton, C/OT, Duke

After losing two starters from the interior offensive line -- Robert Hunt and Connor Williams -- this offseason, Barton would slot in well; he's capable of playing all five positions up front.

Miller's pick that gets best value: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Latu is the cleanest pass-rusher in the draft with pro-ready hands and tools. He's No. 22 on my board, and while medicals will determine his final draft stock, he's a plug-and-play rusher.

16. Seattle Seahawks​

Reid's pick that fills a big need: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas are the clear starters at tackle, but the interior is an issue, especially after Damien Lewis signed in Carolina. Despite being a college left tackle, Fautanu could play inside; he's an agile and aggressive blocker with easy movement skills.

Miller's pick that gets best value: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

Needs and value are in agreement here. Fautanu would be a great pick in Seattle. He'd also be a really good scheme fit, and I'd plug him in at guard from Day 1.

www.espn.com

Debating biggest team need vs. best value in Round 1: We made two draft picks at all 32 slots

Fill a need? Best player available? We played out both strategies for all 32 first-round slots in the 2024 NFL draft.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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