Can we all agree to root for Jax against the Pats?
- Thread starter WestPhish
- Start date
Locke
They looked like strong hands.
Nope. Unless you trust Blake Bortles to outduel Tom Brady.
I think they can. The Patriots defense is not all that talented. Belichick does a masterful job but they can be beaten if you play physical and can run the ball. They will stack the box and try to make Bortles beat them. It is up to the Jags to still stick with the run and for Bortles to make some throws while not turning the ball over.
The Jags defense has the talent to destroy that very average Patriots O-line and pressure Brady. They also have guys that can limit Gronk's effectiveness. The Jags faced a more talented offense vs the Steelers. Ben may not be as great as Brady but he does a much better job of escaping pressure and improvising. I highly doubt the Jags D will be giving up over 40 points again.
The biggest obsticle the Jags will face is the Foxboro officiating crew. They will do whatever they can to try to hand the Patriots the game.
The Jags defense has the talent to destroy that very average Patriots O-line and pressure Brady. They also have guys that can limit Gronk's effectiveness. The Jags faced a more talented offense vs the Steelers. Ben may not be as great as Brady but he does a much better job of escaping pressure and improvising. I highly doubt the Jags D will be giving up over 40 points again.
The biggest obsticle the Jags will face is the Foxboro officiating crew. They will do whatever they can to try to hand the Patriots the game.
Dolphins81
Basement Dweller
Tom Coughlin knows how to beat Brady.
WestPhish
Seasoned Veteran
Our sorry team did it, albeit at home, but the Jags are a much better team than we are.
Right now Patriots defense is playing the best of any unit left in the playoffs when it comes to scoring defense. They had a rocky start to season when they started 2-2 and allowed 122 points in 4 games. Since then 12-1 and they have allowed the fewest points of any team (188) over that last 13 games. That is 14 points a game. The highest point total allowed during that stretch is 27 when the Dolphins gave them their lone loss. The next highest is 24 to Pittsburgh.
Minnesota has allowed 200 points in their last 13 games (15.3) and Jacksonville has allowed 222 in their last 13 games (17.0)
Jacksonville got their defensive rating by bullying a bunch of offensively challenged teams and holding them to 10 points or under 9 times. When faced with real offensive teams they got steamrolled and gave up 42, 44, 27 and 27. Minnesota has been a little better during their 12-1 stretch but surrender 30 plus point twice and looked mediocre at the end of Saints game when they allowed 4 scoring drives to end the game.
I laid $110 on the Patriots to win the AFC the day after they beat the Steelers at -130. Will be rooting for them.
Considering a money line bet is over -400 buying in early bought me some extra potential profit. $$$
The Pats are 12-5 against the spread this year so I probably won't need it but still liking my situation of not having to worry about covering the spread.
Considering a money line bet is over -400 buying in early bought me some extra potential profit. $$$
The Pats are 12-5 against the spread this year so I probably won't need it but still liking my situation of not having to worry about covering the spread.
Impressive in a way but also unimpressive since the Patriots only faced one legitimately good offense during that 12-1 run. That was the Steelers who were without their best WR for much of the game. The rest of the offenses the Patriots faced during that 13 game stretch were some of the worst in the league. The only other decent offenses they faced were the the Chargers (ranked #13 pts/gm) & Falcons (ranked #15 pts/gm). So lets not pretend the Patriots defense is some juggernaut. Their defense is a great scheme that can cover up for limited talent. While the Jaguars defense is simpler but gets by with superior talent.
The Jaguars have the #2 scoring defense and the #5 scoring offense. The Patriots have the #5 scoring defense and #2 scoring offense. Neither team faced a daunting schedule in 2017. The Patriots schedule was tougher, if you go by strength of schedue, so you can say their rankings are more legit. Still the Patriots faced a lot of weak teams as well. The Patriots are the more experienced team but they certainly are not unbeatable.
I think many people are overlooking the Jaguars and have already penciled in the Patriots for the Superbowl. While the Patriots are the legit favorite, I wouldn't count out a young hungry talented team like the Jaguars. If the Mark Sanchez led Jets can upset a heavily favored Patriots team in Foxboro then I don't see why a Blake Bortles led Jaguars team can't pull off a similar feat.
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During that 12-1 stretch the Patriots held those top 15 scoring teams BELOW their season average.
Chargers score 22 per game, Patriots held them to 13
Pittsburgh scores 25.4 per game, Patriots held them to 24
Falcons score 22 per game and Patriots held them to 7
You can only beat who you face. Jags will be held below their 26 points per game scoring average on Sunday.
Chargers score 22 per game, Patriots held them to 13
Pittsburgh scores 25.4 per game, Patriots held them to 24
Falcons score 22 per game and Patriots held them to 7
You can only beat who you face. Jags will be held below their 26 points per game scoring average on Sunday.
Another thing being overlooked is all the defensive TD's the Jags have scored. 8 this season. Wouldn't count on it against a well coached Patriots team. And even if they get one it isn't the back breaker it would be against most teams. Brady proved last year that a pick 6 isn't going to keep him from winning the game. See Super Bowl VI. Take away all those defensive scores and the Jags offense is right at the NFL average for scoring.
WestPhish
Seasoned Veteran
The key to beating the Pats has always been getting to Tom Brady, hitting him early and often, making him uncomfortable in the pocket and making him hurry his throws. The Pats are not a grind it out running team, so you take away or limit their quick passing game and they become mere mortals. Obviously, it's easier said than done, but when it's done right, as the Fins did, the Pats are very beatable.
You may see the Patriots morph to a grind it out team this weekend. Jags weakness on D is defending the run (26th in yards given up per attempt.)
To keep Brady clean they may just pound it down the Jags throat and play a low scoring game.
To keep Brady clean they may just pound it down the Jags throat and play a low scoring game.
The Jags biggest weakness is Blake Bortles. He played one of his best games of the sesson in Pittsburgh. I don't believe he will have that type of game vs the Patriots but I also don't see the Jaguars defense playing as bad as they did in the 2nd half vs the Steelers. IMO this game will be close and will be decided in the the 4th quarter. I think Brady will get hit often and will turn the ball over at least once. It will come down to how many times Bortles and the Jags turn the ball over.
Anyone wonder how things would have turned out if the Jesse James TD was not overturned in the Patriots vs Steelers game? Would the game have come down to that play if Pittsburgh had Antonio Brown for that entire game? Would you have rather seen Steelers vs Patriots, Steelers vs Jaguars or Jaguars vs Titans in AFC Championship game? Personally I like seeing some new teams in it so I would have been happy with Jaguars vs Titans. Hopefully the Dolphins make enough positive moves that we can be discussing them in next years playoffs.
Anyone wonder how things would have turned out if the Jesse James TD was not overturned in the Patriots vs Steelers game? Would the game have come down to that play if Pittsburgh had Antonio Brown for that entire game? Would you have rather seen Steelers vs Patriots, Steelers vs Jaguars or Jaguars vs Titans in AFC Championship game? Personally I like seeing some new teams in it so I would have been happy with Jaguars vs Titans. Hopefully the Dolphins make enough positive moves that we can be discussing them in next years playoffs.
I am sure they may try but that isn't the strength of their offense. If both teams try to grind it out, I believe in the long run that plays more into the Jaguars gameplan. Not sure if the Patriots will have as much success running the ball vs the Jaguars as some other teams have. Doing so would certainly protect Brady from getting hit more but I think it would limit the Patriots scoring chances. A low scoring game benefits the underdog with the weaker offense.
The Jags need to do to Brady what many teams did to Dan Marino in his playoff losses. Keep him off the field, Fournette and the OL need to have a monster game for the Jags to have a chance. I don't believe the Jacksonville offense can do another high scoring performance 2 games in a row.