Chad Henne and Hits on Quarterback

[ckparrothead]

I've been talking about this all week but I think it deserves a little more exploration.

I'm looking at Chad Henne's stats and his tape, and this guy is getting hit WAY too much.

Here's a measurement:

Total Hits on QB = Number of QB Hits that Pro Football Focus records, plus the number of QB Sacks that they record, and then add in about 1/3rd of all QB runs (non-Kneel Downs).

Note: The reason I did 1/3rd of all QB runs is because I went ahead and watched every single Chad Henne scramble/run this year and he took hits from defenders on only 3 of the 9. In the NFL, QBs are allowed to slide, and many make liberal use of that. They also run out of bounds. Henne is no exception. Surprisingly, it doesn't matter really all THAT much whether you assume 1/3rd of all runs/scrambles end with a hit, or half, or whatever. So I'd just take it as it is.

Here's a team by team look at how many Hits on QB were taken in 2010:

This is a big concern. I know the immediate instinct is to fully blame the OL but it's kind of a community responsibility not to get the QB hit so much. There have been changes made to the way Chad Henne is coached to play, as well as changes made to the offensive system which now focuses a lot less on protecting the QB inside the pocket than Dan Henning used to.

At this rate, and we're only 2 games in so this could definitely reverse, but at this rate Chad Henne will not survive the season, IMO.

 

[MD]

CK how many were against NE?

 

[NBP81]

Wow that easily doubles what any other QB went through in 2010... Maybe its just me but I thought CH had somekind of succes when they put an extra lineman in there... I could be wrong though...

 

[Kdawg954]

Chad is a tough guy, I admire that about him. I admired the way he probably would have hopped out there against the Bears and how he came in against Oakland the next week after rumors were reporting he was done for the season. He takes a beating and he keeps going . . . but last week you saw him take a hit and he was slow to get up . . . its gonna get worse and I tend to agree that Henne won't make it this season if it continues like it has. Henne has gotten pounded this year. The OLine doesn't deserve all the blame, but they deserve a big amount . . . they have been terrible and I believe they even brought in Nate Garner as a 6th OL last week . .. ugh.

 

[Slim]

CK, any idea how Cutler's numbers compare this year? He's been sacked 11 times so i assume he's been hit a good 30. Would like to see a comparison given that the Bears line problems have been well documented this year.

Also, any idea how many of those came up the gut? Seems like Henne is being flushed quite a bit this year. Thoughts? Comments?

 

[thedayafter]

Few QB's do play all 16 games.... basically... and so far... it's just another indictment of the HC and staff as well as the players....

I guess TS's idea of RB being the feature back went south real quick... laughable as it was to begin with...

The best protection for CH is to establish Thomas early and often....

 

[dolphone]

I don't trust the data too much; I've seen a lot of misses and also a lot of marked "hits" that are merely brushes.

But yeah, Henne takes a lot of heat back in the pocket. It's only been exacerbated this season, what with Colombo failing to hold on to anyone this year. But he still hasn't had a lot of troubles with injuries, so I'm not really worried. He's built like a tank, he can take a few hits.

 

[ckparrothead]

CK how many were against NE?

16 hits versus New England, 11 hits versus Houston. That seems like downward trajectory but it's really not. Against New England, Henne had 60 snaps passing and running. Against Houston he only had 36 snaps. So he actually got hit slightly more per snap against Houston, but the consistency of it across two games is what bothers me as much as anything.

If it continues, he's going to get hurt. You can bet on that.

 

[NY8123]

That sad part about CK's post will be half the board rooting for CK's prediction to come true.

 

[thedayafter]

That sad part about CK's post will be half the board rooting for CK's prediction to come true.

Reality is at times... harsh.... it's not like the OL hasn't been an issue for some time now... it's not like CH and the WR have been on the same page for some time now... it's not like CH has the proven ability to go through his progressions... it's not like we can run the ball.... or when we can run the ball.... choose to do so....

 

[ckparrothead]

CK, any idea how Cutler's numbers compare this year? He's been sacked 11 times so i assume he's been hit a good 30. Would like to see a comparison given that the Bears line problems have been well documented this year.

Also, any idea how many of those came up the gut? Seems like Henne is being flushed quite a bit this year. Thoughts? Comments?

Well I just discovered something of an error in the way I calculated this stuff. You say that Cutler has taken 11 sacks, which is true, but PFF's offensive tallies only have 7 of them...because only 7 of them were attributable to players on the offense. If you look at the two games that Chicago played and look at the DEFENSE of the two teams that played Chicago, you get a more accurate picture, because it shows you that Jay Cutler took 17 shots from defenders either in sacks or pocket hits. He also got tackled on his run up the middle. So in all, Cutler took 18 hits this year but the way I calculated off PFF only has him taking about 11 of 12 hits.

On the other hand, that means that Chad Henne's 27 hits is also likely understated. And indeed, looking at individual games, the defensive players of the Patriots and Texans got 28 shots on Chad Henne in the pocket, rather than just 24. Then you add in the 3 shots he took when on scrambles...you have 31 total hits on QB...which projects out to about 250 hits on the year.

So if you figure that the calculation method more or less understates everyone actual number of hits about the same...the point still stands. Chad Henne is currently being hit WAY more than anyone else, even Jay Cutler, even Michael Vick, and if it continues...the guy is going to get hurt.

 

[dolphone]

Football Outsiders just did a study on "short" sacks - sacks that occur within 2.5 seconds of the snap.

Miami, in 2009-2010 has the 9th highest percentage of short sacks (relative to all sacks allowed), which points to a lousy offensive line...

 

[thedayafter]

Football Outsiders just did a study on "short" sacks - sacks that occur within 2.5 seconds of the snap.

Miami, in 2009-2010 has the 9th highest percentage of short sacks (relative to all sacks allowed), which points to a lousy offensive line...

Shocking.... and to think the HC is a OL guru.... I'm amazed... what else can't he do....

 

[MD]

16 hits versus New England, 11 hits versus Houston. That seems like downward trajectory but it's really not. Against New England, Henne had 60 snaps passing and running. Against Houston he only had 36 snaps. So he actually got hit slightly more per snap against Houston, but the consistency of it across two games is what bothers me as much as anything.

If it continues, he's going to get hurt. You can bet on that.

I was curious because we seemed more spread out against NE but obviously that is not a factor. Against Houston that is 1 in every 3 snaps. That is alarming and you're right about him not lasting the season.

4 years and the OL has grown progressively worse. If this doesnt get better Moore may not make it through the season either.

 

[Mile High Fin]

Good info & analysis.

I remember Tony Sparano saying that Henne's taking too many hits.
This illustrates that very well.
Nice work.