Chris Perkins: Dolphins headed for mediocrity in 2025 before 2026 rebuild
The Super Bowl window has closed for this core of Dolphins that’s led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The imminent departure of star cornerback Jalen Ramsey means something as basic as winning a playoff game isn’t a realistic option in the next couple of years.
A rebuild, led by a culture change, must occur after this season.
The Dolphins have way too much talent, especially offensively, for 2025 to be deemed anything resembling a rebuild.
That’s the good news, if there is any good news in this situation.
The bad news is the Dolphins are positioned very poorly for a rebuild.
They don’t have the resources to add significant talent, and in the meantime they’ll continue losing top talent.
What does that mean for 2025?
Mediocrity. Again.
It means the 2025 season is basically a duck-and-cover drill for executives, coaches and players.
It means the 2025 season is one that plays out the string while the front office plots the next Super Bowl run, maybe in 2028. This is a season that sets up the future while paying minimal attention to the present.
I think the Dolphins can win nine games in 2025. They’re not far from being a playoff team.
Simply making the playoffs, however, is an embarrassingly low bar that must be raised as part of the required culture change.
Here’s what I mean: when the talent-rich Dolphins made back-to-back playoff appearances in 2022-23, their first-round playoff exits were deemed a major success and celebrated with lucrative contract extensions amid a wave of optimism; when the so-so Miami Heat made back-to-back playoff appearances in 2024-25, their first-round playoff exits were deemed a major failure and earth-shaking changes have been contemplated amid a sense of frustration.
The Dolphins must rebuild in many ways.
Think of 2025 as a pivot year, the year to get things right for the future. This year’s team has almost no chance of winning a playoff game or any other significant accomplishment. That’s the reality.
I originally thought 2024 would be the get-right season and 2025 would be the go-for-it season in a final hurrah for this core of players.
But this core won’t have another “go for it” season.
The glory days are gone. Over. Finished. The Super Bowl window for this collection of players is closed and locked.
There was a small crack to squeeze through before the Dolphins and Ramsey mutually agreed to seek a trade shortly before the draft in April.
But Ramsey’s imminent departure slams the Super Bowl window shut for the core of the Dolphins players that began being gathered in 2022, coach Mike McDaniel’s first season.
Key players such as left tackle Terron Armstead, guard Robert Hunt, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, safety Jevon Holland and, in a few weeks, Ramsey, have gone away, stripping this squad of any chance of being better than the gold standard of this disappointing era, the 2023 team that finished 11-6.
As for the near future, well, consider that Tyreek is scheduled to count $51.9 million against the salary cap in 2026. One way or the other, he’ll likely be gone after this season. Once Tyreek leaves, it’s all over for this offense. It must be totally rebuilt.
And Tua’s contract becomes easier to part with after 2026 when his $34.8 dead cap money hit becomes more digestible. He’s due to count $56.4 million against the salary cap in 2026, $53.4 million in 2027, and $65.8 million in 2028, his eighth season.
Few teams are willing to stay with a quarterback who earns that much but can’t win a playoff game, so extending Tua’s contract to lower/spread his salary cap charge wouldn’t seem a wise option.
In a span of three years, the Dolphins could lose Tyreek, Tua, Armstead, Campbell, Ramsey and Holland.
Also, they must make a decision on whether to re-sign edge rusher Jaelan Phillips or allow him to depart in free agency after this season. He’s playing on his fifth-year option.
A major rebuild is coming.
The draft classes of 2023 and 2024 must form a new core, and there’s not much hope for that to happen at this way-too-early point of the process.
Running back De’Von Achane and edge rusher Chop Robinson form the nucleus of the new core, and they’re not nearly enough.
We’ll see if defensive tackle Kenneth Grant and guard Jonah Savaiinaea, this year’s first- and second-round picks, respectively, can help form a new nucleus.
But there’s not much more to offer from the previous three drafts.
Perhaps this season the Dolphins’ under-achieving offense, which loaded up on everything from coaches to quarterbacks this offseason, can finally carry this team to big things.
After all, if not for offensive additions such as senior pass game coordinator Bobby Slowik, backup quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers, guard James Daniels, Savaiinaea, running backs Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon II, backup guard-tackle Larry Borom, big wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and in-line tight end Pharaoh Brown this season would be the rebuild year.
Those, however, are major additions.
So there’s a chance the offense can put the 2025 Dolphins on its shoulders and carry it to big things.
But most likely, the Dolphins are playing a waiting game during the 2025 season, merely killing time before they can get to the inevitable rebuild beginning in 2026.
I originally thought 2024 would be the reset season for the Dolphins and 2025 would be the go-for-it season for this core of players. But this core is unlikely to have another “go-for-it” season.…
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