Daniel Jones, Qb, Duke

[ChrisEAS]

I haven't seen much talk about him here on the boards, but he is my favorite QB so far (I like Herbert too). He has the size, strength, arm, throws of an NFL QB. He plays for a smaller team in Duke, so maybe that's why he doesn't get the recognition. He kind of reminds me of Josh Allen, not a big name guy but has all the talent in the world to work with, to become great.

What do you all think of Daniel Jones? Could he go in 1st round?

 

[ckparrothead]

Don't really know where he will go.

There's a certain point where I would be interested in him but it's not high.

I like a lot of his traits and training. But I don't like his arm. He hasn't got a natural big arm. When he's got his feet and weight transfer exactly on point he can drive intermediate depth throws well enough, but he doesn't have those NFL proof level throws in him as you stretch the distance out further. He does, on the other hand, have a true NFL deep ball. But then, when you're watching him throw on the run or off balance, or when he's not got his feet or weight transfer perfect, you see throws that belong in Jay Fiedler's cupboard.

I find it hard to believe that my franchise, potential hall of fame starting quarterback is going to look like that. So I think of him as like a backup, and that means I'm gonna pay a backup price.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Yeah we've talked about him quite a bit in my underclassman quarterback thread stickied at the top of the forum here. I share some of your enthusiasm for the kid and how he plays the position. Although he's not in Josh Allen's class from a physical tools perspective. He falls way short in that department. Where Daniel Jones separates himself from other QB's is the little things. Details. Sees the entire field, does it quickly. Processes information fast. Absorbs Coach Cutcliffe's teachings. Maintains an excellent passing profile at all times inside the pocket....due to great footwork.

Intangibles and toughness. Kid was back practicing 9 days after having shoulder surgery. You can read the quarterback threads and see plenty of discussion about him. I think he'll have a long career in the NFL, just not a spectacular one.

 

[LargoFin]

It's a scratch for me, for now. He has more sacks and ints than touchdowns. He needs to fix that first before I look at his armstrength. He should have at least 18 touchdowns by now, and he has 9. That's a serious failure of expectations.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Haven't really looked into the quarterbacks yet. But, I think Miami is in a tough spot. From what I've read, Herbert is the only true #1 pick from this group. Of course, we know more than one quarterback will go in the first round. Grier and Lock are likely, maybe Jones. Will the Dolphins reach or follow the talent, which is clearly the defensive tackle group?

As it stands, Miami needs help everywhere. It would be nice to get an elite type defensive lineman. That would be a good start for the defense, but a quarterback of the future is a must as well. How will the Dolphins accomplish that? I assume the NY Giants will get Herbert unless they aren't picking #1 overall. In that case, several teams including the Dolphins could move up.

The big question might be who are some mid-rounders who could surprise? Peterson, McSorley maybe?

 

[LargoFin]

Grier takes too many sacks. He has taken 19 sacks in 219 attempts. That's 11.5 attempts per sack. The last QB who panned out with that poor a performance in sacks category was Cam Newton, and before that it is hard to find one. Cam is somewhat of an outlier because of his armstrength, frame, a running ability, and he was a champion too.
Will Grier is not that. In addition, Will Grier also throws too many picks for the volume, 31 attempts per pick. The last decent quarterback with such low performance was Jameis Winston, and again, he was a champ and somewhat of a running QB with large frame.
Neither Jameis nor Cam had low performance in two of those categories but only one, whereas Grier fails in both, and isn't the champ nor does he have the frame like those two.
There are issue with decisiveness and decision making with WIll Grier that do not show up on youtube, but show up in stats, and that is a big concern. Someone may take a flier on him because of his nice delivery and his ability to score, but if he gets pressured and hit, that team will have to lie with the negative sides.

 

[nick1]

Yeah we've talked about him quite a bit in my underclassman quarterback thread stickied at the top of the forum here. I share some of your enthusiasm for the kid and how he plays the position. Although he's not in Josh Allen's class from a physical tools perspective. He falls way short in that department. Where Daniel Jones separates himself from other QB's is the little things. Details. Sees the entire field, does it quickly. Processes information fast. Absorbs Coach Cutcliffe's teachings. Maintains an excellent passing profile at all times inside the pocket....due to great footwork.

Intangibles and toughness. Kid was back practicing 9 days after having shoulder surgery. You can read the quarterback threads and see plenty of discussion about him. I think he'll have a long career in the NFL, just not a spectacular one.

I bet you he has a better career then Josh Allen who despite having all the talent in the world does none of the little things you just said Daniels does. Allen was not a good prospect. People fall in love with raw talent too much. He will be a huge bust. The guy has a 54% completion percentage which is exactly who he has always been you can't improve accuracy

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I bet you he has a better career then Josh Allen who despite having all the talent in the world does none of the little things you just said Daniels does. Allen was not a good prospect. People fall in love with raw talent too much. He will be a huge bust. The guy has a 54% completion percentage which is exactly who he has always been you can't improve accuracy

Well, it's not as simple as falling in love with raw tools. It's understanding that you always take a chance on the physical tools of a kid like Josh Allen. The NFL understands that.

Anybody can look at completion percentage. But they can't tell you why it is what it is. If you're going to bet on completion percentage, bet on Luke Falk or Brandon Doughty.

The situation a young quarterback falls into is typically going to determine their success or failure much more than their own abilities. Daniel Jones is a very system dependent prospect due to his arm limitations.

 

[nick1]

Well, it's not as simple as falling in love with raw tools. It's understanding that you always take a chance on the physical tools of a kid like Josh Allen. The NFL understands that.

Anybody can look at completion percentage. But they can't tell you why it is what it is. If you're going to bet on completion percentage, bet on Luke Falk or Brandon Doughty.

The situation a young quarterback falls into is typically going to determine their success or failure much more than their own abilities. Daniel Jones is a very system dependent prospect due to his arm limitations.

My point being QBs with bad accuracy historically don't do well. I'm thinking of Jamarcus Russell (1st overall if I recall) and Tim Tebow (also a first rounder). Can you show me a QB who was sub 60% in college and high school who panned out in the NFL?

I think high accuracy numbers are just as bad honestly. Its most likely the result of the scheme being short completion friendly. You have to take each situation into account of course but I'm just generalizing in this case.

As far as Josh Allen not to side track the thread hes always been poor even in high school. So we can't blame Wyoming

 

[LargoFin]

On completions percentage, sweet spot is between 63 and 67 percent. 70% completion is out of whack, something is fishy, like with Bradford and Carr, especially in high volume offenses and then if the QB is smallish, not a stud, that is seriously fishy stuff. But also under 63% is not good. Those are all red flags, and I do not want to see any red flags.
You'll be hard pressed to find a good prospect who transitioned to NFL with senior-year completion percentage under 63 and over 67.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

My point being QBs with bad accuracy historically don't do well. I'm thinking of Jamarcus Russell (1st overall if I recall) and Tim Tebow (also a first rounder). Can you show me a QB who was sub 60% in college and high school who panned out in the NFL?

I think high accuracy numbers are just as bad honestly. Its most likely the result of the scheme being short completion friendly. You have to take each situation into account of course but I'm just generalizing in this case.

As far as Josh Allen not to side track the thread hes always been poor even in high school. So we can't blame Wyoming

It doesn't matter. You still have to take the chance on a quarterback with the physical tools of Josh Allen - and it's not just the freakish arm. It's the size and athleticism, the ability to move and improvise. Avoid pressure and extend plays.

Secondly, where critics of Josh Allen like yourself keep going wrong is pointing to his completion percentage and saying he's inaccurate. I promise you it's not that simple.

The reason his completion percentage is lower is due to decision making and trusting believing in his arm too much. Not because he's inaccurate. Inaccurate indicates he's not throwing the ball where he intends for it to go. That's not the case.

He chooses low percentage throws at a higher rate because of his arm, and because he has the ability to extend plays with his size, strength and athleticism that others can't. Rather than just giving up or throwing it away. Furthermore, it's due to the type of ball he throws, not where it's at. He has more dropped passes than any other quarterback I can remember because he hasn't developed the nuanced ability to throw a catchable ball. His trajectory is always flat and fast. Even on touch throws. It's not the location (accuracy) that's the problem - it's the speed and trajectory that causes the bottom line result. Low completion percentage.

However, he won at Wyoming. He made them win. Look at em before and after him. That's a big factor when evaluating quarterbacks. You want to see guys who elevate their program and those around them above the mean.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

On completions percentage, sweet spot is between 63 and 67 percent. 70% completion is out of whack, something is fishy, like with Bradford and Carr, especially in high volume offenses and then if the QB is smallish, not a stud, that is seriously fishy stuff. But also under 63% is not good. Those are all red flags, and I do not want to see any red flags.
You'll be hard pressed to find a good prospect who transitioned to NFL with senior-year completion percentage under 63 and over 67.

No you won't be hard pressed. I've put forth plenty. You even read them. You just don't acknowledge it.

Evaluating quarterback stats is not evaluating quarterbacks.

Furthermore, evaluating the probabilities of a range of quarterback stats is not evaluating quarterbacks.

They're different things entirely.

I'm reminded of an old adage... "If you can't dazzle them brilliance - baffle them with bulls***". We have enough of that with hoops around here. We don't need any more.

 

[Lovethefish]

No you won't be hard pressed. I've put forth plenty. You even read them. You just don't acknowledge it.

Evaluating quarterback stats is not evaluating quarterbacks.

Furthermore, evaluating the probabilities of a range of quarterback stats is not evaluating quarterbacks.

They're different things entirely.

I'm reminded of an old adage... "If you can't dazzle them brilliance - baffle them with bulls***". We have enough of that with hoops around here. We don't need any more.

I’ve been following your posts for last few years. I said it last year.
Just wanted to say it again.
Thank you.
Signed 43 Yr old Dolphin fan. (33+ yrs fan).

 

[ckparrothead]

I'm not going to re-litigate Josh Allen but suffice it to say I completely agree with Slimm on the issues being discussed.

As for Daniel Jones, the thing I'm having a tough time with is going HIGH for a Daniel Jones when I could just make a free agent offer (no draft pick) for the UDFA who was my binky last year, Chris Streveler.

The issues with him coming out were about velocity and level of competition. One of those demons has been exorcised. The other is a criticism he shares with plenty of QBs in this year's draft (including Jones) who stand to be over-drafted.

Steveler was a productive leader. He took a South Dakota program that hadn't won a lot at the FCS level in a decade, and he made them a winner, playoff contender, even won a playoff game. We talk about Drew Anderson of Murray State and what he's doing there, but that's what Chris Streveler did for South Dakota already. He WAS that offense, something like 70% of it, his arm and his legs. He's extremely intelligent and studious (two Master's degrees I believe). Great communicator.

There are a lot of misconceptions about the CFL. If I had a dollar for every mediocre or poor QB prospect that comes out of the draft prospect that people just assume goes up and plays well in Canada, but who never even sniffs playing time in the CFL, I'd be a rich man. It's professional caliber football. Everywhere you turn there are NFL players. Those defenses are full of guys who were the stars of their college defenses, and there aren't any of those super-weak freshmen that you could run your offense through in college.

Case in point, the last time a rookie QB had started Week 1 in the CFL before Chris Streveler did that this year was 1994. The only three guys I've found that have done it in CFL history are Joe Theisman, Anthony Calvillo (who is a CFL legend that played for like two decades) and Chris Streveler.

Yeah, there was a confluence of accidents that got Streveler into that game, but the point is he's 77 of 125 for 944 yards, 10 TDs, 5 INTs, with 67 runs for 365 yards and 9 more TDs...as a rookie. That's almost unheard of, and not just because professional caliber CFL ball is a lot tougher than any level of college ball. It's unheard of because in college these guys played against 11-man defenses and punted on 4th down. In the CFL they have to account for 12-man coverages, and punting the ball on 3rd down.

So like I said, if you had questions on a "level of competition" basis about Streveler coming out of South Dakota...they're gone. Period. He's not equal footing with a Daniel Jones or the others that way. He's on better footing.

It'll come back to velocity, I'm sure. But like I said, no worse than Daniel Jones that way, no worse than Gardner Minshew. And his release is among the fastest I've seen, which can buy back a lot of what you're missing when you don't have great velocity.

 

[ChrisEAS]

above I saw Luke Falk mentioned. Does he have any future potential at all?