Despite season-ending injury, Dolphins should draft Tua Tagovailoa

[ckparrothead]

Keep in mind there are a very few people who ACTUALLY know what's going on with the injury, what his Houston surgery was for, etc. Those few people mostly live in Alabama. Tua has a very tight circle and the Alabama program is very tight lipped as well. Dr. Lyle Cain knows. Nick Saban knows. You'll probably not hear any public words on the matter from anyone else who actually knows.

The rest of the folks you hear from are doing educated guesswork based on a scant few anonymously sourced media reports that came out only hours after Tua was pummeled into the ground by two Bulldog defenders.

This is an important point to remember.

 

[Geordie]

Think you hit on the point I've been trying to get over in that article. With 3 first rounders we are probably one of the only teams that can and should take the chance. Unlike Washington who are likely to pick just ahead of us, they can't really take the chance. We have to IMO and we have to use our top pick to take him, no waiting around in the hope that his injury has scared others off, just like what NYG did last draft with Jones, they targeted their guy (like him or not) and picked him with their first pick, overdrafting many said but ensuring they got their man.

I don't really care if he can play or not in 2020, we have a good QB room right now so waiting a year is not going to kill us, sitting in that room with Fitz is going to help his devleopment. 2021 was always going to be the year where we were going to compete, that's still on track if we take Tua.

 

[SkapePhin]

Think you hit on the point I've been trying to get over in that article. With 3 first rounders we are probably one of the only teams that can and should take the chance. Unlike Washington who are likely to pick just ahead of us, they can't really take the chance. We have to IMO and we have to use our top pick to take him, no waiting around in the hope that his injury has scared others off, just like what NYG did last draft with Jones, they targeted their guy (like him or not) and picked him with their first pick, overdrafting many said but ensuring they got their man.

I don't really care if he can play or not in 2020, we have a good QB room right now so waiting a year is not going to kill us, sitting in that room with Fitz is going to help his devleopment. 2021 was always going to be the year where we were going to compete, that's still on track if we take Tua.

I agree. I think we should take a shot. Yes, he may bust, but at least you are taking a shot on great instead of flaming out on another "ok" pass rusher like Charles Harris.

 

[Locke]

I agree. I think we should take a shot. Yes, he may bust, but at least you are taking a shot on great instead of flaming out on another "ok" pass rusher like Charles Harris.

He is the exact type of player you roll the dice on. He has elite QB tools and a pristine off field character. If you hit, you’re getting a Drew Brees. If you miss? You’re still the same Dolphins you’ve always been. I see little downside.

 

[GrieseMarinoTua]

Fools gold for a premium pick -- and the kid has a long way to go with the recovery
phase with NOTHING guaranteed. I'm like 1000% sure teams are going to investigate
the surgery extensively in terms of what degree of fracture(s) and how extensive the
rebuild etc. But obviously the hype is going to continue and some are just going to
ignore the multiple injuries -- while others see damaged goods...

Would you risk it Nasty? If so what pick would you be prepare don’t go risk on him?

 

[GrieseMarinoTua]

I’ll now ask the question in English ...

What pick would you be prepared to take him at?

 

[BigNastyFish]

Would you risk it Nasty? If so what pick would you be prepare don’t go risk on him?

If the kid can throw at the combine and at least show good movement etc. then I would
suspect he still has a chance in R1. But the injury was brutal -- notably worse than Bo Jackson's
and that's a fact. He suffered full dislocation + fracture --- right now we don't know the degree
of the fracture -- and if it also included the femur head.

Of course the full info will be out soon enough and the PRO teams are going to do extensive
investigation into the injury and prognosis. But you'd be completely negligent as a GM to
ignore this kids injury history and seriously question his NFL durability -- all the talent in
the world means nothing if you're not on the field.

That said I don't think he's a safe bet in R1 -- and probably should fall to R3 but you can bet some
team is going to try to "outsmart" (roll the dice) and grab the kid in R2. Of course this is contingent
on his ability to at least show some promise at the combine. If he can't compete there, and dependent
on the full medical -- he might be better staying out of the draft and rehabbing for '21.

Whatever... It's all speculation at this point.

 

[MD]

If you draft him with that first pick you better have future assets and an alternative plan in place. He's worth the risk but not without a safety net. That joint will take a pounding and I doubt anyone knows how it will hold up to it.

 

[GrieseMarinoTua]

If the kid can throw at the combine and at least show good movement etc. then I would
suspect he still has a chance in R1. But the injury was brutal -- notably worse than Bo Jackson's
and that's a fact. He suffered full dislocation + fracture --- right now we don't know the degree
of the fracture -- and if it also included the femur head.

Of course the full info will be out soon enough and the PRO teams are going to do extensive
investigation into the injury and prognosis. But you'd be completely negligent as a GM to
ignore this kids injury history and seriously question his NFL durability -- all the talent in
the world means nothing if you're not on the field.

That said I don't think he's a safe bet in R1 -- and probably should fall to R3 but you can bet some
team is going to try to "outsmart" (roll the dice) and grab the kid in R2. Of course this is contingent
on his ability to at least show some promise at the combine. If he can't compete there, and dependent
on the full medical -- he might be better staying out of the draft and rehabbing for '21.

Whatever... It's all speculation at this point.

Thanks for taking time

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

It's a wait and see for Tua. How does the injury heal? Does he get close to the same level of mobility? Those are huge questions and I don't know enough about the injury to say one way or the other.

I'm not sure by April that teams will have enough information (performance, workouts) to make an evaluation either. Because of that, I wouldn't doubt if Tua goes back to Alabama for his senior year to re-establish his draft value.

 

[Finuk]

If signs remain positive, Dolphins should be running up to the podium with their #1 pick.
yeah, it’s a risk but thats part of the game.

 

[BigNastyFish]

Thanks for taking time

Just my take based on what I've been reading and watching on this subject.

As a word of caution -- I think it's pretty obvious the "institutional apparatus"

supporting Tua is going to represent the "facts" in the most positive light

i.e., perfect surgery, perfect outcome, perfect recovery expected etc.

In my view it's going to be an extended period of time (many months) before

notable clarity emerges... But I do expect lots of "positive updates" and mini

promos supporting the kid for a number of obvious reasons...

Certainly hope the kid makes a full recovery. But I seriously question his NFL durability.

 

[phins_4_ever]

He is the exact type of player you roll the dice on. He has elite QB tools and a pristine off field character. If you hit, you’re getting a Drew Brees. If you miss? You’re still the same Dolphins you’ve always been. I see little downside.

And you will be the first one to call for Griers head while denying that you were in favor of drafting him.

 

[GrieseMarinoTua]

Just my take based on what I've been reading and watching on this subject.

As a word of caution -- I think it's pretty obvious the "institutional apparatus"

supporting Tua is going to represent the "facts" in the most positive light

i.e., perfect surgery, perfect outcome, perfect recovery expected etc.

In my view it's going to be an extended period of time (many months) before

notable clarity emerges... But I do expect lots of "positive updates" and mini

promos supporting the kid for a number of obvious reasons...

Certainly hope the kid makes a full recovery. But I seriously question his NFL durability.

Going slightly off piste (apologies to OP) do you rate Trev Lawrence? Now Tua has become the gamble/risk he is, would you make a play for him in 2021 (maybe trade down our pick this year for a 1st round draft pick next year and a couple of additional second round picks this year to ensure we have enough firepower to land TL or fields)? Do you even rate either of them?

 

[phins_4_ever]

Keep in mind there are a very few people who ACTUALLY know what's going on with the injury, what his Houston surgery was for, etc. Those few people mostly live in Alabama. Tua has a very tight circle and the Alabama program is very tight lipped as well. Dr. Lyle Cain knows. Nick Saban knows. You'll probably not hear any public words on the matter from anyone else who actually knows.

The rest of the folks you hear from are doing educated guesswork based on a scant few anonymously sourced media reports that came out only hours after Tua was pummeled into the ground by two Bulldog defenders.

This is an important point to remember.

That includes you and the "writer" of the article.