Devils Advocate | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Devils Advocate

SF Dolphin Fan said:
I agree. However, the team looks really bad last year at 1-4. Even getting to 10-6 it wasn't always impressive, but Miami found ways to win. It's been a little similar this year.

I'm not expecting a turnaround as 5-11 or 6-10 seems about right for this team. But you never know.
Click to expand...
Keep on mind thought that last year we beat a bunch of teams with losing records. Of the next 8 games we have 6 against teams with winning records

Ozzy rules!!
 
Digital said:
Awesome post Dejesus!

I must admit I have less faith than last year. Last year there was a reason for the poor play, learning new systems, and we had started trending up. By his year we are trending down and have plenty of internal strife with our OL coach issue and throwing away one of our most talented players, Ajayi.

Gase isn't making an example out of Ajayi, he is sacrificing him. That only happens when there is a serious problem in the locker room. And given how much of an apologist Gase has been about our failsauce OL, I'm discouraged greatly for the future.

But enough pessimism. Your post makes a great point. We are still in a good spot to contend for a wildcard slot. Those 5 holding calls were mostly tickytack stuff, and the refs did make a difference in that close game. We can't complain, because we have won 4 out of 5 close games, but it is worth noting. Also worth noting we were 4-0 in close games with Ajayi, and we are 0-1 in close games without him. We no longer can grind teams down and win in the 4th quarter. From now on we are going to have to outplay them or win the turnover battle. No other way forward.

But _IF_ we can miraculously come up with an improved OL playing 2nd stringers then the pieces are in this team to field a good defense and complement it with scoring from the offense.
Click to expand...
There's a concept called regression to the mean, if you're getting lucky repeatedly eventually things will go back to average. For most of the NFL, if you are getting outscored over the course of a season, you're going to have a losing record. Last year (and through most of this year), we pulled out miraculous close win after another to get to a winning record. So smart money says we cannot keep doing this.

But perhaps there really is something more than luck, and through a combo of Gase's game management and instilled culture, there is actually a real trait there. To me seeing them pull off another 3-4 close wins without losing more than say 1 would be testament to something real and rare being there, which would be a valuable building block for coming years and worth watching even if we end up missing the playoffs.
 
Danny said:
Keep on mind thought that last year we beat a bunch of teams with losing records. Of the next 8 games we have 6 against teams with winning records

Ozzy rules!!
Click to expand...

It will be 4 soon as the bills are starting there mid season collapse.
 
isaacjunk said:
There's a concept called regression to the mean, if you're getting lucky repeatedly eventually things will go back to average. For most of the NFL, if you are getting outscored over the course of a season, you're going to have a losing record. Last year (and through most of this year), we pulled out miraculous close win after another to get to a winning record. So smart money says we cannot keep doing this.

But perhaps there really is something more than luck, and through a combo of Gase's game management and instilled culture, there is actually a real trait there. To me seeing them pull off another 3-4 close wins without losing more than say 1 would be testament to something real and rare being there, which would be a valuable building block for coming years and worth watching even if we end up missing the playoffs.
Click to expand...

12 in a row wasn’t good enough,know he needs to win 3 out of th next 4.
 
Digital said:
Awesome post Dejesus!

I must admit I have less faith than last year. Last year there was a reason for the poor play, learning new systems, and we had started trending up. By his year we are trending down and have plenty of internal strife with our OL coach issue and throwing away one of our most talented players, Ajayi.

Gase isn't making an example out of Ajayi, he is sacrificing him. That only happens when there is a serious problem in the locker room. And given how much of an apologist Gase has been about our failsauce OL, I'm discouraged greatly for the future.

But enough pessimism. Your post makes a great point. We are still in a good spot to contend for a wildcard slot. Those 5 holding calls were mostly tickytack stuff, and the refs did make a difference in that close game. We can't complain, because we have won 4 out of 5 close games, but it is worth noting. Also worth noting we were 4-0 in close games with Ajayi, and we are 0-1 in close games without him. We no longer can grind teams down and win in the 4th quarter. From now on we are going to have to outplay them or win the turnover battle. No other way forward.

But _IF_ we can miraculously come up with an improved OL playing 2nd stringers then the pieces are in this team to field a good defense and complement it with scoring from the offense.
Click to expand...

Considering your poor opinion of our offensive line, wouldn't 2nd stringers be an improvement?
 
isaacjunk said:
There's a concept called regression to the mean, if you're getting lucky repeatedly eventually things will go back to average. For most of the NFL, if you are getting outscored over the course of a season, you're going to have a losing record. Last year (and through most of this year), we pulled out miraculous close win after another to get to a winning record. So smart money says we cannot keep doing this.

But perhaps there really is something more than luck, and through a combo of Gase's game management and instilled culture, there is actually a real trait there. To me seeing them pull off another 3-4 close wins without losing more than say 1 would be testament to something real and rare being there, which would be a valuable building block for coming years and worth watching even if we end up missing the playoffs.
Click to expand...


And when the team is getting shut out at 25 times the expected rate through seven games, there could be a negative trait alongside that one.

They may have more than one trait. 1) winning close games more often than expected, 2) losing in an embarrassing manner more often than expected, and 3) winning in a convincing manner less often than expected.

That isn't a good combo. Certainly the great teams don't have that combination of traits.
 
Ray R said:
A quote from Thomas Edison:

"Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up"

I don't see Coach Gase giving up. Unfortunately that is not true for some of our posters.
Click to expand...
Absolutely great quote Ray. Perfectly fits us now.
 
Avigatorx said:
I think Cam Newton gets hurt trying to run the ball in this one.
Click to expand...
TJ McDonald, Ndamakong Suh, William Hayes, AWOL Timmons, and Rey Maualuga, yeah, Newton is definitely thinking about his health this week.
 
I do believe that we’ll rounded RBs behind our O-line have a better chance against the Panther than a physical runner like Ajayi. I have some hope that our defense will improve with a better safety, but I am taking a wait and see on the defense.
 
isaacjunk said:
There's a concept called regression to the mean, if you're getting lucky repeatedly eventually things will go back to average. For most of the NFL, if you are getting outscored over the course of a season, you're going to have a losing record. Last year (and through most of this year), we pulled out miraculous close win after another to get to a winning record. So smart money says we cannot keep doing this.

But perhaps there really is something more than luck, and through a combo of Gase's game management and instilled culture, there is actually a real trait there. To me seeing them pull off another 3-4 close wins without losing more than say 1 would be testament to something real and rare being there, which would be a valuable building block for coming years and worth watching even if we end up missing the playoffs.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm familiar with that from finance. But that suggests that it is, in fact, not supported by value. Just because one person _thinks_ that you got lucky, doesn't mean that you actually did. The art of strategy often looks like getting lucky.

For instance, Bill Parcells made a very successful career out of what some people initially thought was getting lucky. He avoided drafting players who got injured ... so his teams looked workmanlike but had fewer superstars. He rarely gambled on a guy and found a gem. Instead, he focused on guys who wouldn't get injured, so he had fewer injuries later in the year. He concentrated on better preparation during the offseason so his teams were physically stronger and had more stamina. He built a smashmouth team to churn clock and wear down his opponents. The shortened clock helped his speed-based 34 defense stay fresh and aggressive. His physical offense wore down the opposing defenses with overpowering size, constant short gains and long drives, lots and lots of plays, and eventually, exposed the stamina advantage Parcells teams had in the 4th quarter. So he had a lot of close games that he won at the end. People thought his results would eventually see a regression to the mean as well. The flaw in their logic, was that they failed to see his design. They failed to understand his strategy was a holistic approach to the game being 60 clock minutes. He won not because of his superior talent, but rather because he manipulated the game to turn on the elements where his team had the comparative advantage.

New England did this to Atlanta in the Super Bowl. Gase noted that, and did it to Atlanta as well. Will it work every time? No, definitely not. But it also isn't random chance. So, expecting a regression to the mean might be misplaced with games like that one. I do think that Gase is smarter than the aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaverage bear. (don't worry, you're too young to get that reference, but it made me smile to write it:)) I do think that Gase is likely to win more than 50% of the close games over the long term. But, losing Ajayi hurts his chances, IMHO.
 
Ray R said:
Considering your poor opinion of our offensive line, wouldn't 2nd stringers be an improvement?
Click to expand...
Good question! Well ... I'm not sure, but I would be willing to find out.

I was swamped with work (still am really) and missed the Monday night game (debacle) vs. Carolina. I heard Jesse Davis played OK at RT. I'm hoping that is true, because I do think we need to revamp 4 of the 5 OL positions, so having an alternative that doesn't suck at RT would be a helpful starting point. If our backups are Brendel at C and Davis at RT/G, then I think I can live with that. But still, we would likely need 2 or 3 new starters from the draft and FA. And that assumes Larsen or Asiata can earn and deserve a starting spot at one of the G's.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom