yes i agree. i dont want to give you a popsicle headache, but for an analytics driven team, i cannot make the math work. could tua have a year next year that makes him worth more than the 5 and 250mm they are thinking of giving him now? sure. odds of that happening (what % chance)? how much would it increase his market value above what they will give him now? odds he has a worse year, gets hurt again, etc and his market value drops after next year? roll out all the math, expected value, suggests make tua play out the 5th year option. expected value analysis tells me odds are after next year finishes his market value will be a lot less than 5 years and 250mm. I can live with the 10% risk of getting it wrong and tua getting somewhat more expensive. Or think of it this way, at $50mm a year there is much more room for tua to get cheaper than there is for him to get more expensive. He can maybe get $5-$10mm a year more expensive, but he literally could get $43mm a year cheaper. Baker Mayfield just got 1 year, $7mm for this past year. not saying it will get this bad, but you get the point, the salary risk reward is skewed hugely to the downside of $50mm per year