all of what you wrote is very sensible............
BUT.............
You can not deal in absolutes in today's NFL, you just can't!!! There are no guarantees. The 4-12 Rams can go and win the Superbowl the next year, a conference champion can be a cellar dwellar the next. The Eagles actually can win an NFC Championship game. The TB YucKs can be world champs.
The other point you make is that our competition has gotten stronger as well......did the teams in our division really get stronger??
Patriots:
Lost - Bruschi, Patten, T.Johnson, Phifer, Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weiss, Keith Traylor
Added - Tim Dwight, David Terrell, Logan Mankins, Chad Brown
Bottom Line(on paper) - WEAKER
Jets:
Lost- S.Moss, K.McKenzie, J.Ferguson, D.Abraham, A.Becht, L.Jordan
Added - Heimerdinger, Jolley, Coles, L.Legree, M.Nugent, J.Miller, D.Blaylock
Bottom Line - WEAKER - new o-coordinator is nice but they didn't adequately replace Ferguson or McKenzie, Blaylock is no Jordan.
Bills:
Lost - Jennings, Bledsoe, Pat Williams, Travis Henry
Added - Holcomb, Parrish
Bottom Line - WEAKER
Now I'm sure I don't have complete lists, and I know that fans of these teams can make valid arguments why I'm wrong.....but as I see these teams, they are no better or worse than they were a year ago.
Anyway, that's not my real point, the real point is that you are trying to make an prediction a FACT, and in the NFL , you just can't do that.