Dolphins Over-Under Is Set

[Kebo]

Tough road schedule

 

[AquaHawk]

The flaw in your argument is that you are taking the average over the entire year. If you look at what happened from the 49ers game on, while Tua was starting or playing QB you will see that our offensive production went way down because Tua and McDaniels kept going to the deep ball and teams schemed and took it away and it was predictable, if we had run the ball more, we would’ve converted more plays into first downs, and we would’ve forced the defense to adapt to us. We would’ve take. What the defense gave us.

No, we did t run enough! 2nd fewest attempts in the entire league? Are u kidding me? Didn’t help our struggling defense either.

90% of the Top 10 NFL passing teams made the playoffs in 2022, and the only team that didn’t (Lions) was close.

60% of the Top 10 NFL rushing teams made the playoffs.

Philadelphia was the only team on both lists, and carried a 50:50 rate. They capitalized on (a) the league’s best offensive line and (b) a mobile QB.

Miami has a 60:40 rate. They have the league’s 22nd ranked OL and a highly-efficient passing QB who runs only when necessary.

The Chiefs also sport a 60:40 rate.

The biggest opportunity, IMO, is how to get from Miami’s average of 60 plays per game closer to 65. At an average of 0.3 EPA, that would add 1.5 points per game. Considering how many tight games Miami played, that would be the difference.

BTW, one of the biggest predictors of team success is the average passing yard differential between what is gained vs. yielded.

Bottom-line: Yes, situationally Miami needs to run a little more. Yes, better defense and time management will help. The root should be on adding more plays to earn more 0.3 EPA and pushing towards an average of 27+ points per game.

 

[Kyndig]

90% of the Top 10 NFL passing teams made the playoffs in 2022, and the only team that didn’t (Lions) was close.

60% of the Top 10 NFL rushing teams made the playoffs.

Philadelphia was the only team on both lists, and carried a 50:50 rate. They capitalized on (a) the league’s best offensive line and (b) a mobile QB.

Miami has a 60:40 rate. They have the league’s 22nd ranked OL and a highly-efficient passing QB who runs only when necessary.

The Chiefs also sport a 60:40 rate.

The biggest opportunity, IMO, is how to get from Miami’s average of 60 plays per game closer to 65. At an average of 0.3 EPA, that would add 1.5 points per game. Considering how many tight games Miami played, that would be the difference.

BTW, one of the biggest predictors of team success is the average passing yard differential between what is gained vs. yielded.

Bottom-line: Yes, situationally Miami needs to run a little more. Yes, better defense and time management will help. The root should be on adding more plays to earn more 0.3 EPA and pushing towards an average of 27+ points per game.

When you say “Top NFL passing teams” Do you mean in terms of attempts? Because If you go by passing attempts, then your stat isn’t true. If however you mean by yards and or touchdowns then of course the most effective passing teams will have made the playoffs.

Miami’s rushing play % last season was 38%. Our passing game was strong in the beginning of the season, but then became predictable towards the end as defenses adjusted and started sitting on routes 18 yards deep and our offense didn’t adjust. Some of that isn’t just passing vs rushing attempts. Adjustments could’ve come in the form of passes out of the back field, or by throwing shorter passes in front of the defense, more slants, etc., but also by running the football more to take advantage of defensive coverages that could’ve been gashed because even their linebackers were playing deeper.

Further nuance was in our 3rd down conversions, especially in 3rd a short situations. The Dolphins were ranked 24th in the league last year at 35%, but even worst 27.9% our last 3 games. Granted, we didn’t have Tua, but even when we did, we would’ve had a much better chance to convert some of those 3rd and shorts with more running plays. This would’ve led to more offensive snaps, and more plays that could’ve been either runs or passes.

Of course the stats are further skewed by the fact that in the first half of the season we didn’t need as many 3rd down conversions because we were hitting those deep plays and eating up huge chunks of yards and not getting in very many 3rd down situations before we wound end up scoring and those days were sweet!

In any case, the bottom line is that this offense could be unstoppable with game plans that could change every week and adapt in game to become less predictable and attack The weaknesses that the defense was presenting depending on how they were playing us if we develop and use our rushing attack more in combination with our deep strike capability, more passes out of the backfield, more screens, more play action, and also by getting more than two receivers involved in the passing game.

This is (along with time management in game) what Mike McDaniel and his offensive coaching staff needs to work on the most this off season. More adaptability for a more diverse offensive attack including all of our options will take this offense to the next level and will have the potential to become one of the most prolific and I dare say historic offensive attacks that have ever existed. The potential is there, but we have to develop all of our offensive weapons and possibilities more than we did last year.

It’s exciting to think that we even have that potential. Hill & Waddles explosiveness along with Tua’s quick release and accuracy open up all kinds of possibilities and defensive weaknesses that can be attacked.

 

[So Be]

Definitely good advice… I should probably have not used the word “serious”there…what I meant to expouse is that a lot of amatuer bettors will make the fatal mistake of bettin with their hearts ( ie: on their team) steada their minds… Now I definitely have a different take on house money…some of my best parlays have come from having lots in my pocket from a previous win and then betting smart but with abandon. But we better not talk too much about this so be… The youngsters may be watching. 👁

I agree that having extra cash in your budget does loosen the purse strings but never say or think you are playing with house money.

One other thing I have found is that playing fantasy really helped my wagers being a serious player. The additional analysis info is great and has won me substantial money. My favorite is betting against D's getting their ass kicked in fantasy.

I think I did message you asking if you played.

 

[So Be]

When you say “Top NFL passing teams” Do you mean in terms of attempts? Because If you go by passing attempts, then your stat isn’t true. If however you mean by yards and or touchdowns then of course the most effective passing teams will have made the playoffs.

Miami’s rushing play % last season was 38%. Our passing game was strong in the beginning of the season, but then became predictable towards the end as defenses adjusted and started sitting on routes 18 yards deep and our offense didn’t adjust. Some of that isn’t just passing vs rushing attempts. Adjustments could’ve come in the form of passes out of the back field, or by throwing shorter passes in front of the defense, more slants, etc., but also by running the football more to take advantage of defensive coverages that could’ve been gashed because even their linebackers were playing deeper.

Further nuance was in our 3rd down conversions, especially in 3rd a short situations. The Dolphins were ranked 24th in the league last year at 35%, but even worst 27.9% our last 3 games. Granted, we didn’t have Tua, but even when we did, we would’ve had a much better chance to convert some of those 3rd and shorts with more running plays. This would’ve led to more offensive snaps, and more plays that could’ve been either runs or passes.

Of course the stats are further skewed by the fact that in the first half of the season we didn’t need as many 3rd down conversions because we were hitting those deep plays and eating up huge chunks of yards and not getting in very many 3rd down situations before we wound end up scoring and those days were sweet!

In any case, the bottom line is that this offense could be unstoppable with game plans that could change every week and adapt in game to become less predictable and attack The weaknesses that the defense was presenting depending on how they were playing us if we develop and use our rushing attack more in combination with our deep strike capability, more passes out of the backfield, more screens, more play action, and also by getting more than two receivers involved in the passing game.

This is (along with time management in game) what Mike McDaniel and his offensive coaching staff needs to work on the most this off season. More adaptability for a more diverse offensive attack including all of our options will take this offense to the next level and will have the potential to become one of the most prolific and I dare say historic offensive attacks that have ever existed. The potential is there, but we have to develop all of our offensive weapons and possibilities more than we did last year.

It’s exciting to think that we even have that potential. Hill & Waddles explosiveness along with Tua’s quick release and accuracy open up all kinds of possibilities and defensive weaknesses that can be attacked.

I agree and am beating a dead horse is saying we must improve the run game via the draft or FA. In spite of what some may think the four we have are not the answer. We pay the four around $7 M combined, mostly minimum NFL wage, off FA. It was not a favor to McD but that no other team saw value to pay more.

I will now try to bury the horse until the draft.

 

[AquaHawk]

When you say “Top NFL passing teams” Do you mean in terms of attempts? Because If you go by passing attempts, then your stat isn’t true. If however you mean by yards and or touchdowns then of course the most effective passing teams will have made the playoffs.

Miami’s rushing play % last season was 38%. Our passing game was strong in the beginning of the season, but then became predictable towards the end as defenses adjusted and started sitting on routes 18 yards deep and our offense didn’t adjust. Some of that isn’t just passing vs rushing attempts. Adjustments could’ve come in the form of passes out of the back field, or by throwing shorter passes in front of the defense, more slants, etc., but also by running the football more to take advantage of defensive coverages that could’ve been gashed because even their linebackers were playing deeper.

Further nuance was in our 3rd down conversions, especially in 3rd a short situations. The Dolphins were ranked 24th in the league last year at 35%, but even worst 27.9% our last 3 games. Granted, we didn’t have Tua, but even when we did, we would’ve had a much better chance to convert some of those 3rd and shorts with more running plays. This would’ve led to more offensive snaps, and more plays that could’ve been either runs or passes.

Of course the stats are further skewed by the fact that in the first half of the season we didn’t need as many 3rd down conversions because we were hitting those deep plays and eating up huge chunks of yards and not getting in very many 3rd down situations before we wound end up scoring and those days were sweet!

In any case, the bottom line is that this offense could be unstoppable with game plans that could change every week and adapt in game to become less predictable and attack The weaknesses that the defense was presenting depending on how they were playing us if we develop and use our rushing attack more in combination with our deep strike capability, more passes out of the backfield, more screens, more play action, and also by getting more than two receivers involved in the passing game.

This is (along with time management in game) what Mike McDaniel and his offensive coaching staff needs to work on the most this off season. More adaptability for a more diverse offensive attack including all of our options will take this offense to the next level and will have the potential to become one of the most prolific and I dare say historic offensive attacks that have ever existed. The potential is there, but we have to develop all of our offensive weapons and possibilities more than we did last year.

It’s exciting to think that we even have that potential. Hill & Waddles explosiveness along with Tua’s quick release and accuracy open up all kinds of possibilities and defensive weaknesses that can be attacked.

Yes, agree diversifying play calls with more runs and pass play types—especially situationally—will benefit this team.

 

[Trifecta Nation]

Honestly, this team pulled out 9-8 last year by having beat Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland and Houston. Thank God they were on the schedule. So who's taking their place this year when one looks at that schedule? Where's the week that we go into a game and go "Oh, thank goodness we're playing _____________ today. Looks like an easy win."? Because I sure don't know where those 10 wins are going to spring up from? The shaky OL, shaky Tua...... Under folks, bet the UNDER!!!

 

[rent this space]

so when you say the number is "set", isn't that for just this moment? Say the Dolphins trade for Derrick Henry then somehow move up and draft Michael Mayer. Wouldn't that number change?
Sorry in advance, I am gambling illiterate