Bet the Over. We won a lot of close games last year, so I get the pessimism from Vegas. Plus our owner voted to deny them the Raiders ... which doesn't factor into it at all, but just wanted to needle them at the same time they're giving us bad news. :D
Seriously, looking at Tannehill's performance last year we look like a better than 7 win team for sure. He will have Asiata starting, which should make up for the loss of Albert and probably help Ajayi. All of Tannehill's targets return except for improvements at TE. Our offense should be solid and fairly potent. We shouldn't turn over the ball too much with this roster either.
Our Defense looks considerably better than last year. Mitchell only played a half a season and didn't always look good, so no loss there. Addition of Charles Harris brings considerably more pass rush. Addition of Hayes means better run defense. Additions of McMillan and Timmons should mean improved run defense. Addition of Tankersley should mean improved coverage. Health of Howard and Maxwell means improved coverage. Another year in the system should help everyone. Another year of experience should help all of our young CB's. Loss of IAQ will hurt, but return of Reshad Jones healthy will be huge. Addition of McDonald for the second half of the season will likewise be clutch. That means we'll have improved run defense (McMillan, Timmons, Hayes, healthy Jones, McDonald), improved pass rush (Harris), improved coverage (Tankersley, healthy Howard/Maxwell, developing Lippett). That's a major improvement.
Special teams looks to continue to do well while cutting down on the mistakes. We may take a step backwards on specials this year, but I doubt it will be a huge step backwards. We really made the most of our chances last year. Hopefully, Jakeem Grant will be able to field returns with safe hands and prove his agility and speed. That could be a big boost to the specials.
All in all, we will be a better team. We might have a worse record, but I'd guess that it would be 9-7, and I'll be surprised if we don't cover 7.5.