poppy
Seasoned Veteran
jlfin said:
I agree with that, but imagine if we had Bellicheck (Giants) as D coordinator rather than Oliva"dud"i?
Don, Why Oh Why didn't you get rid of Oliva"dud"i???
- Thread starter poppy
- Start date
I agree with that, but imagine if we had Bellicheck (Giants) as D coordinator rather than Oliva"dud"i?
My job is sports statistical analysis so I'll have to check out that book. Kudos to the tremendous amount of work and dedication, regardless of what the analysis indicates.
After looking at NFL stats since '87, the KISS or Keep It Simple Stupid approach seems to work best. That has been my conclusion and the same for several of my friends in the same field. In the late '90s I was charting literally 400+ stats and situational trends. It was a blur requiring daily Tylenol. Three dozen stats or angles would favor one side and two dozen the other. What the heck was that, a +12 or scattergun garbage? Finally I wised up and isolated the best half dozen or stats and angles and have never regretted it.
This guy is trying to sell books, not win bets like my friends and I. He needs tons of variables and conclusions to get any ink or a following. But based on some of the criteria he included in that article I think plenty of it is a reach. The reason baseball is ideal for tunnelvision numbers geeks is there is almost zero subjectivity involved. No one pancakes anyone and you just chart how the guy does once he has two strikes on him, etc. In football virtually every one of those questions he posed was based on subjectivity, like whether the receiver was open or not.
And another thing, the author forfeited any credibility by embracing the simpleton notion that Olividotti was responsible for our fate in the late '80s, early '90s. As others have posted, our defensive talent was subpar in many areas and certainly no match for the Bills' offensive weaponry. What is he talking about, no one blitzed the Bills? My friend and I were weekly guests on a Las Vegas sports talk show every year in that era and I distinctly remember us laughing at the teams who were blitzing Buffalo and getting picked apart. The old adage is blitz the vulnerable QBs, defend the best QBs. Buffalo simply faced superior teams in the Super Bowl. The blitzing didn't have full impact until Buffalo was trailing and pressing. It was personnel and muscle. The Bills would have been defeated regardless of tactics.
After looking at NFL stats since '87, the KISS or Keep It Simple Stupid approach seems to work best. That has been my conclusion and the same for several of my friends in the same field. In the late '90s I was charting literally 400+ stats and situational trends. It was a blur requiring daily Tylenol. Three dozen stats or angles would favor one side and two dozen the other. What the heck was that, a +12 or scattergun garbage? Finally I wised up and isolated the best half dozen or stats and angles and have never regretted it.
This guy is trying to sell books, not win bets like my friends and I. He needs tons of variables and conclusions to get any ink or a following. But based on some of the criteria he included in that article I think plenty of it is a reach. The reason baseball is ideal for tunnelvision numbers geeks is there is almost zero subjectivity involved. No one pancakes anyone and you just chart how the guy does once he has two strikes on him, etc. In football virtually every one of those questions he posed was based on subjectivity, like whether the receiver was open or not.
And another thing, the author forfeited any credibility by embracing the simpleton notion that Olividotti was responsible for our fate in the late '80s, early '90s. As others have posted, our defensive talent was subpar in many areas and certainly no match for the Bills' offensive weaponry. What is he talking about, no one blitzed the Bills? My friend and I were weekly guests on a Las Vegas sports talk show every year in that era and I distinctly remember us laughing at the teams who were blitzing Buffalo and getting picked apart. The old adage is blitz the vulnerable QBs, defend the best QBs. Buffalo simply faced superior teams in the Super Bowl. The blitzing didn't have full impact until Buffalo was trailing and pressing. It was personnel and muscle. The Bills would have been defeated regardless of tactics.