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Dorian and Hurricane Preperation

Michael Scott said:
Good thing wife, son, and I have bags packed. Think we're gonna do the dip tomorrow if the other models start to agree with the latest ICON. Cat 4 Broward landfall:

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That seems like way outlier as of 11am.

But need to keep an eye on it for sure.
 
Michael Scott said:
Good thing wife, son, and I have bags packed. Think we're gonna do the dip tomorrow if the other models start to agree with the latest ICON. Cat 4 Broward landfall:

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Yes, I think once they know how it will react with the system (how soon it makes the two turns west then north) we will know at what point in Florida it will land...even after the 11 am it was still the whole state, but it is always better acting with caution. Especially with the proposed CAT 4 status at landing.
 
I found a local weather guy who cuts through a lot of the BS and is usually spot on at interpreting trends. He also gives the type of info you want to hear. His name is Dennis Phillips from the Tampa/St. Pete market.

He also has a new streaming app for roku, fire, android etc. and will be broadcasting 24 hours a day during hurricanes. This is good to have if you lose power.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/hurricane

Just a quick update. Dorian is still forecast to make landfall on Florida's east coast as a Cat 4 hurricane midday on Monday. There were really no changes to the previous forecast. It was a few mph higher, which bumped it up a category. The thinking behind my earlier post is the same. Euro, Hwrf and UKMet have it much farther South. We're still 24 to 36 hours away from pinpointing specifics. And truth be told, extreme winds will only be about 10 miles wide, so the greatest threat will be even tougher 3 days out. I'll be updating 24/7. - Dennis Phillips Facebook





 
Our analog pots line went down yesterday - exactly why we keep the analog line is for hurricanes.....

Got new Windows and doors as part of the Ft. Lauderdale Airport expansion - windows are double-pain inside window is rated at cat 5, outside window is a regular glass window so I still have to put up the storm shutters:(

House was built in the 70"s with Hurricane's in mind, well protected pocket on the back porch were I can sit and watch the storm, of course Andrew was south of us and I haven't been thru the eye of a good one in quite some time.
 
Eesti said:
I found a local weather guy who cuts through a lot of the BS and is usually spot on at interpreting trends. He also gives the type of info you want to hear. His name is Dennis Phillips from the Tampa/St. Pete market.

He also has a new streaming app for roku, fire, android etc. and will be broadcasting 24 hours a day during hurricanes. This is good to have if you lose power.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/hurricane

Just a quick update. Dorian is still forecast to make landfall on Florida's east coast as a Cat 4 hurricane midday on Monday. There were really no changes to the previous forecast. It was a few mph higher, which bumped it up a category. The thinking behind my earlier post is the same. Euro, Hwrf and UKMet have it much farther South. We're still 24 to 36 hours away from pinpointing specifics. And truth be told, extreme winds will only be about 10 miles wide, so the greatest threat will be even tougher 3 days out. I'll be updating 24/7. - Dennis Phillips Facebook
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Denis Phillips is excellent and has been doing weather in the Tampa Bay area for as long as I can remember.
 
So now it's going to be a cat 4 storm? I was watching a show so I just came here. This is no joke man. If it hits on the east coast as a 4 then even if it starts to break some it will be at least a 2 when it hit us here in Kissimmee if not worse. It all depends on how fast it moves.
 
Our latest model shows it kicking to Cape Canaveral as a 3 so any type of hard guess is again, foolish until Saturday afternoon
 
Michael Scott said:
The 11am/5pm advisory on Friday should be very telling. Still gonna be some inconsistencies today and tomorrow.
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Yep, Friday evening is my decision day. I've been at this a long time, I know a lot of people like to get prepared and clear the shelves and gas, highways get clogged. There is always plenty of gas and water, before and after the storm, despite widespread panic. I think patience is the best key, I usually wait it out as long as possible. These storms always have a tendency to fool the trackers. So many times you see people that left early have to turn around and head the opposite way.
 
I would also suggest Mike's Weather Page...he very much discusses that the cone is still wide and to no focus on the center route. Granted he is an amateur, he is one of the most followed ones and does know his stuff.
 
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With Irma we only lost power for about 14 hours. When Charlie hit I was without power for 9 days but I lived in Poinciana at that time. This one could hit way harder than Charlie tho.
 
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The latest from the NHC...Still a huge cone as it gets closer to Florida...basically the entire state is still in play.

From what I understand, a lot will depend on the strength of the high pressure system...a weaker system will allow the storm to go north sooner, while a strong system will keep it on a westerly track longer. Most likely why the cone is still the entire state.
 
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