Dorian and Hurricane Preperation

[phins_4_ever]

OMG looks like the Bahamas are getting eaten alive.

185 MPH winds???

Devastating.

If that tweet is correct this video was taken while in the eye and still have the back end eye wall coming their way.

 

[SkapePhin]

This monster is erasing some islands in the Bahamas. Scary. Prayers for all those impacted.

Still got a bad feeling this beast will jog south west and hit us in Broward even though that is the most unlikely scenario now.

Just remember Irma taking a freak southward turn last minute to save us.

 

[phins_4_ever]

Looks like Dorian will make its closest approach to Florida in the Melbourne/Titusville area. Some models still take onshore further north but the forecast track is the general consensus of all forecast models.

I also want to point out the circles around the Hurricane. The inner circle is hurricane force winds with the highest winds in the eyewall which is tightly wrapped around the eye. The middle circle are tropical storm force winds and the outer circle are gale force winds (winds below TS strength).



Dorian slowed down to 5mph and is continuing westward. Dorian is expected to slow down even more while preparing for a turn and might even come to a complete stop before continuing. This is a devestating scenario of the Northern Bahamas and Abaco as they have to not only endure the eyewall but hurricane force winds well into tomorrow.
At this point the only question is when the turn to north will happen. The forecast anticipates a turn tomorrow (Monday) night or Tuesday morning. The ridge is already eroding and slowly moving eastwards pushed by a trough from the north. The approach (and any impact on Florida) will depend on the timing of the turn and how sharp the turn will be.

If anybody follows Hurricanes they don't keep Cat 5 status for very long. Dorian will not be any different. Eyewall replacement will flunctuate the strength up and down over the next few days and eventually shear building up will slowly decrease the intensity.

Hurricane watch has been issued north of Volusia/Brevard County to St Mary's river inlet at the Georgia/Florida border. All other watches/warnigs remain.


NHC Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/020259.shtml?
NHC Public Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/020257.shtml?
NHC Forecast advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/020256.shtml?

 

[circumstances]

I just heard on TV that the slower it goes (or even stopping) benefits South Florida. The faster it goes the more likely it makes landfall here (apparently).

 

[phins_4_ever]

I just heard on TV that the slower it goes (or even stopping) benefits South Florida. The faster it goes the more likely it makes landfall here (apparently).

That would be correct. It would benefit all of Florida and probably Georgia and the Carolinas as well. I think I mentioned last Friday or Thursday that a slowing of Dorian would be good for us because it will turn into another Floyd.

In a perfect world Dorian slows down, stops and then bypasses us and makes that NE turn and speeds up again pretty much bypassing land. If it moves slow long enough, gets caught in a another ridge and that sucker may loop back a la Gordon.

 

[circumstances]

That would be correct. It would benefit all of Florida and probably Georgia and the Carolinas as well. I think I mentioned last Friday or Thursday that a slowing of Dorian would be good for us because it will turn into another Floyd.

In a perfect world Dorian slows down, stops and then bypasses us and makes that NE turn and speeds up again pretty much bypassing land. If it moves slow long enough, gets caught in a another ridge and that sucker may loop back a la Gordon.

I thought this 5 and 6 mph movement was slow enough, but apparently not?

 

[phins_4_ever]

I thought this 5 and 6 mph movement was slow enough, but apparently not?

The current forecast is based on a 5mph forward movement and a brief stoppage over the next 24-48 hours. Anything slower in that time period benefits us more (sucks for the Bahamas though).

If you are confused about my post and looping back:
the forecast calls for a faster motion after the turn is complete. What I was saying is that if Dorian would move at 5 mph in 3 or 4 days when it goes north and northeast you never know what will happen.

Here is a tropical weather outlook:

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, the
system does not currently have a closed surface circulation. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
few days while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

That would be the yellow X.


I highlighted the NNW direction for you. If that happens over the next 5 days that disturbance/depression could block the exit of Dorian to the NE. The goal is: slow now, stop soon, then fast out. (that sounds like a pornhub novel)

 

[circumstances]

The current forecast is based on a 5mph forward movement and a brief stoppage over the next 24-48 hours. Anything slower in that time period benefits us more (sucks for the Bahamas though).

If you are confused about my post and looping back:
the forecast calls for a faster motion after the turn is complete. What I was saying is that if Dorian would move at 5 mph in 3 or 4 days when it goes north and northeast you never know what will happen.

Here is a tropical weather outlook:


That would be the yellow X.
View attachment 23926

I highlighted the NNW direction for you. If that happens over the next 5 days that disturbance/depression could block the exit of Dorian to the NE. The goal is: slow now, stop soon, then fast out. (that sounds like a pornhub novel)

Nope, wasn't confused.

And very glad that disturbance off the coast of Africa looks like it's heading north early.

 

[Kdawg954]

It has started to turn but it's hard to tell going 1 mph.

Serious game of chicken between Dorian and the computer models lol

Down to 165, which is expected due to the eye literally traveling over Grand Bahama.

I don't even want to imagine the damage there this morning.

 

[mrbunglez]

The eye of Dorian via NASA.

 

[Danny]

Going ONE mile an hour so pretty much almost not moving. For what I'm seeing it should stay off the coast, at least the eye but it will still affect us in some way. I guess we'll know more as the day goes on but up here in Kissimmee/Orlando we'll start feeling it a bit more by tomorrow.

 

[dougb123]

Bahamas took the brunt of this storm

Looks like the forecast was dead on

 

[circumstances]

Don't know if it's storm related, but it's raining cats and dogs over here.

 

[andyahs]

Northern Bahamas is and did take a beating. In Nassau we made out good compared to them. A lot of Fin fans in Abaco and Freeport and they have been hit really hard.

Some of my family lost their roof and house destroyed in Abaco but they are okay.

Please keep our Abaco and Freeport fans in your prayers and thoughts.

 

[ohall]

Moving 1 MPH. I'm having a difficult time even understanding how something that large can move that slow. It seems almost impossible. Those poor ppl in the Bahamas.