Dorian and Hurricane Preperation

[phins_4_ever]

Moving 1 MPH. I'm having a difficult time even understanding how something that large can move that slow. It seems almost impossible. Those poor ppl in the Bahamas.

Because a hurricane needs mid- and upper level steering currents. In the absence of any steering current a hurricane would drift, stall or move completely erratic because of what's called a beta drift. It probably would drift to the N and maybe to the NW until it finds steering currents. A drift like that would weaken the hurricane in time because it
a) would drift into unfavorable environment
b) eats up it's own fuel. Warmer waters are an essential part for hurricane development. Lingering over the same area for a while the Hurricane would basically starve itself.

That is why Dorian is so slow now and will drift to the NW and even stall. The Ridge which steered Dorian to the west is now eroding and moving eastward which leaves Dorian with very little or no steering until it reaches the low from the north which will take Dorian to the N and NE with an increase in speed.

Dorian is really doing what a hurricane does. If it would do anything different I would be worried.

 

[ohall]

Because a hurricane needs mid- and upper level steering currents. In the absence of any steering current a hurricane would drift, stall or move completely erratic because of what's called a beta drift. It probably would drift to the N and maybe to the NW until it finds steering currents. A drift like that would weaken the hurricane in time because it
a) would drift into unfavorable environment
b) eats up it's own fuel. Warmer waters are an essential part for hurricane development. Lingering over the same area for a while the Hurricane would basically starve itself.

That is why Dorian is so slow now and will drift to the NW and even stall. The Ridge which steered Dorian to the west is now eroding and moving eastward which leaves Dorian with very little or no steering until it reaches the low from the north which will take Dorian to the N and NE with an increase in speed.

Dorian is really doing what a hurricane does. If it would do anything different I would be worried.

I understand it logically. It's still just seems impossible to me at a certain level. That something that was moving at speed X that it would be able to basically come to a stop.

 

[BigNastyFish]

Report from the Bahamas

“That’s water hitting my front window which is extremely high. Of course I’m already completely flooded out. That’s my kitchen window that water is hitting and that has to be a minimum of about 20 feet above the ground. This is water by my back door that came from the canal that height has to be 20 to 25 feet above sea level. This is what I’m facing at the moment. I have neighbors who are in a far worse position than me and my family. That’s my bedroom water hitting there," Pintard says.

 

[phins_4_ever]

Report from the Bahamas

“That’s water hitting my front window which is extremely high. Of course I’m already completely flooded out. That’s my kitchen window that water is hitting and that has to be a minimum of about 20 feet above the ground. This is water by my back door that came from the canal that height has to be 20 to 25 feet above sea level. This is what I’m facing at the moment. I have neighbors who are in a far worse position than me and my family. That’s my bedroom water hitting there," Pintard says.

That person is lucky to have a two-story home and that the windows are still intact. Goodness.

 

[phins_4_ever]

Looks like Dorian is slowly beginning the turn. At 1mph to the WNW/285 degree.

2pm Intermediate Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

At 26.8N Latitude Dorian is now a tad above West Palm Beach (26.7N).

 

[circumstances]

Looks like Dorian is slowly beginning the turn. At 1mph to the WNW/285 degree.

2pm Intermediate Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Is there any way to project how close/what part of florida it might affect if it continues at 285 degrees?

 

[ohall]

I can't believe it's still moving at 1 MPH. That has to be some kind of record, no?

 

[phins_4_ever]

Is there any way to project how close/what part of florida it might affect if it continues at 285 degrees?

The last time it moved at 270 to 275 degree which is a tad above due west (270). The prjection was that Dorian will drift W to WNW over the next 24 hours. At 1mph it is really a drift. WNW is really anything between 270+ and < than 310. 285 is somewhere in the middle. So I would say it is on forecast track maybe slightly ahead of forecast track.


Here is what I always look at:
at 8m today the eye was supposed to be located at 26.9N 78.7W. When they come out at 8pm with the intermediate advisory you can tell the progress.

Today's 5am forecast track called Dorian to be at
12H 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W 140 KT 160 MPH.
1800Z would coincide with the 2pm intermediate advisory. So you could say that Dorian is 0.1 degree further north than it should be. But that is really splitting hair.

 

[circumstances]

The last time it moved at 270 to 275 degree which is a tad above due west (270). The prjection was that Dorian will drift W to WNW over the next 24 hours. At 1mph it is really a drift. WNW is really anything between 270+ and < than 310. 285 is somewhere in the middle. So I would say it is on forecast track maybe slightly ahead of forecast track.
View attachment 23991

Here is what I always look at:
at 8m today the eye was supposed to be located at 26.9N 78.7W. When they come out at 8pm with the intermediate advisory you can tell the progress.

Today's 5am forecast track called Dorian to be at
12H 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W 140 KT 160 MPH.
1800Z would coincide with the 2pm intermediate advisory. So you could say that Dorian is 0.1 degree further north than it should be. But that is really splitting hair.

right, but how close does that take it to florida at its closest point?

 

[phins_4_ever]

I can't believe it's still moving at 1 MPH. That has to be some kind of record, no?

I thought you understood it logically after I tried to explain that Dorian is doing what hurricanes do.
This absolutely normal in the absence of steering current.

I understand it logically. It's still just seems impossible to me at a certain level. That something that was moving at speed X that it would be able to basically come to a stop.

Not sure but I doubt it is record. Drifting is not new. Just from the top of my head I can think of at least 3 hurricanes which drifted for several days: Mitch, Gordon, Floyd.
The only reason it seems unusual is because it is close to the US and currently affects the Bahamas and people pay attention.

 

[Kdawg954]

Frances really is the slowest storm that I remember moving across FL. And it was huge in size (only like a cat 3 in strength).

Labor Day 2004. Ended up being a 4 day event but South Florida was spared the brunt of it. Was like a 5 mph mover and it went from se to nw across the state before eventually going ne.

 

[phins_4_ever]

right, but how close does that take it to florida at its closest point?

The last forecast puts Dorian closest to the Florida coast around Daytona....30-40 miles out. For now I would stick with that. The forecast before that it was Melbourne about 30-40 miles out.

 

[phins_4_ever]

Frances really is the slowest storm that I remember moving across FL. And it was huge in size (only like a cat 3 in strength).

Labor Day 2004. Ended up being a 4 day event but South Florida was spared the brunt of it. Was like a 5 mph mover and it went from se to nw across the state before eventually going ne.

There we go...two more.

 

[circumstances]

The last forecast puts Dorian closest to the Florida coast around Daytona....30-40 miles out. For now I would stick with that. The forecast before that it was Melbourne about 30-40 miles out.

I'm getting an amazing amount of crappy weather right now if its closes approach is going to be 30 miles off the coast of Daytona. Strong storm.

 

[phins_4_ever]

I'm getting an amazing amount of crappy weather right now if its closes approach is going to be 30 miles off the coast of Daytona. Strong storm.

New Radar Landing Page

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=13&length=24