Draft by the numbers 2005-2015

[NJeff]

So with the draft right here lets look at the numbers by position to help weed out any misconceptions about where you can find the most talent. Now obviously there are exceptions to every rule and data can be slightly skewed but a 10 year span ending 5 years ago gives us decent data to at least be informed I pulled this info from a few websites and other I added in my thoughts. Hopefully, some people find this usefull…



QB

• Of the 122 QBs drafted between 2005 and 2015 only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.
• The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
• The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.

Conclusion- If you want a QB it has to be in the 1st. Unless you want to really gamble and play hard against the odds. Even the 63% taken in the 1st during this time only Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were the only “stars”



RB

• Of the 207 players drafted 33 have become starters for half their careers. This gives an indication that there is a lot of Running Back By Committee (RBBC).
• There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.

Conclusion- The misconception of you can get great backs later in the draft is simply not true. While the 1st round only provides 58% chance the drop to 25% in the 2nd shows if there is an elite talent you have to grab them unless you are ok with the RBBC approach and having a few not elite backs (which clearly does work for some teams)

OL

• Of the 421 players drafted, 147 wound up as starters for at least half their career.
• The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
• The later round success rates hold up well (5th and 6th - 16%, 7th - 9%) but the numbers are driven down due to the higher numbers selected later.

Conclusion- Lineman believe it or not have some of the best success rates early and later on. While getting someone dominate in the first has a higher chance there are more then a few that came out later. In fact, at Tackle and Guard there is multiple people drafted after the 1st in every single year that have gone on not to just be starters but damn good quality starters (pro bowlers up). So when talking Oline it is more appropriate to discuss how important is having a dominate player and the relation to wins vs having quality starters and how much of a loss that is.

TE

• Tight ends are rarely drafted in the first round. Only nine tight ends were drafted in the first round in the last decade. Of those nine, six have had success.
• The success rate for tight ends is as follows: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%, 5th - 32%, 6th - 26%, 7th - 0%. In other words, selecting a tight end in the 3rd through 6th doesn't make a lot of difference.
• The highest number of tight ends has been selected in the 7th round (31) with the least amount of success (0%)

Conclusion- If you want a TE you have to get one early. The problem is there are plenty of years where there isn’t anyone worth drafting high, so the years there is one…. you have to spend capital if you value the position. (but you really need to make sure you vet the product you’re buying)

WR

• Of 317 selected, only 74 have become starters for at least half their careers.
• The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
• The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.
• The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%.

Conclusion- You want skill, just like RBs, you have to spend early and often. 58% tells me if you need a WR you have to double down in the 1st and 2nd to ensure you get one good starter. The case for taking skill positions early is glaring and honestly one that I didn’t expect at all. I would have thought WRs hit late a lot more than they actually do.

DL

• Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.
• Of 442 players selected, only 114 have become starters for at least half their careers.
• Drafting a defensive lineman in the 4th round has the highest success rate of all positions at 37%.
• The success rates are as follows: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 26%, 3rd - 27%, 4th - 37%, 5th - 13%, 6th - 13%, 7th - 3%

Conclusion- Another position that has a low 1st round grade. To me this shows that we clearly miss the mark on scouting here. But since there are so many drafted every year you would expect the percentages to be lower at this position as only DB has more players drafted then DL.

LB

• Of the 303 players drafted, 72 became starters for at least half their careers.
• Almost half of the linebackers drafted came in rounds 5-7 but only 5 total starters came from those rounds.
• If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate. As a matter of fact, Linebackers have the second highest first round success rate behind only the offensive line. 70% of first round linebackers were starters for at least half of their careers.
• There isn't much drop off in the second round either, with a success rate of 55%.
• The third round isn't that bad at 34% but after that the drop is steep with the 4th round plummeting to 16%, the 5th round to 4%, 5% in the 6th and only 2% success in the 7th.

Conclusion- LBs are a position you are almost better off taking in the 2nd and 3rd considering the success rate is just as good as other positions 1st round success. However ~150 coming in rounds 5-7 and only 5 being starterss says if you wait till the 4th you might as well wait till next year.

DB

• Of the 510 defensive backs drafted, 121 became starters.
• You have the same success rate drafting a DB in the 7th round as you do drafting one in the 4th (11%)
• After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)
• DBs provide the best success potential in the 7th round versus other positions in that round.

Conclusion- A very good success rate in the 1st round says taking a DB there is smart. However, the success rates later on says don’t spend to much early and use late picks on the position.

Notes

• This doesn’t account for stars or evaluating the level of how good a starter is. Generational talent should be taken no matter what in the 1st round (make sure you scout right)
• QBs seem to be first round or bust, that’s why we discuss the few that were taken outside and use the same 3 or 4 as examples of “well this guy wasn’t a 1st rounder”.
• O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet as is Linebacker. If you don’t have a glaring hole taking these positions is the safe choice
• If you want skill you have to pay for it. Many people (including myself) argue not to take backs early but data tells us otherwise
• WR is a 50/50 crapshoot in the 1st or second past that you might want to spend elsewhere
• Trading 4-7th round picks for 1-3rd round is by far and away a great strategy that we don’t see much, the success later on in the draft is way to low for my liking as the developmental talent doesn’t develop that often at all

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

Great thread !!! Very interesting and someone did a lot of work. One thing left off was undrafted players. Would have been nice to see how they fit in. I would imagine a lot of them get to decide where they want to play and where they have the best chance of sticking so they might have better overall numbers than 7th rounders.

 

[Danny]

So with the draft right here lets look at the numbers by position to help weed out any misconceptions about where you can find the most talent. Now obviously there are exceptions to every rule and data can be slightly skewed but a 10 year span ending 5 years ago gives us decent data to at least be informed I pulled this info from a few websites and other I added in my thoughts. Hopefully, some people find this usefull…



QB

• Of the 122 QBs drafted between 2005 and 2015 only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.
• The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
• The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.

Conclusion- If you want a QB it has to be in the 1st. Unless you want to really gamble and play hard against the odds. Even the 63% taken in the 1st during this time only Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were the only “stars”



RB

• Of the 207 players drafted 33 have become starters for half their careers. This gives an indication that there is a lot of Running Back By Committee (RBBC).
• There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.

Conclusion- The misconception of you can get great backs later in the draft is simply not true. While the 1st round only provides 58% chance the drop to 25% in the 2nd shows if there is an elite talent you have to grab them unless you are ok with the RBBC approach and having a few not elite backs (which clearly does work for some teams)

OL

• Of the 421 players drafted, 147 wound up as starters for at least half their career.
• The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
• The later round success rates hold up well (5th and 6th - 16%, 7th - 9%) but the numbers are driven down due to the higher numbers selected later.

Conclusion- Lineman believe it or not have some of the best success rates early and later on. While getting someone dominate in the first has a higher chance there are more then a few that came out later. In fact, at Tackle and Guard there is multiple people drafted after the 1st in every single year that have gone on not to just be starters but damn good quality starters (pro bowlers up). So when talking Oline it is more appropriate to discuss how important is having a dominate player and the relation to wins vs having quality starters and how much of a loss that is.

TE

• Tight ends are rarely drafted in the first round. Only nine tight ends were drafted in the first round in the last decade. Of those nine, six have had success.
• The success rate for tight ends is as follows: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%, 5th - 32%, 6th - 26%, 7th - 0%. In other words, selecting a tight end in the 3rd through 6th doesn't make a lot of difference.
• The highest number of tight ends has been selected in the 7th round (31) with the least amount of success (0%)

Conclusion- If you want a TE you have to get one early. The problem is there are plenty of years where there isn’t anyone worth drafting high, so the years there is one…. you have to spend capital if you value the position. (but you really need to make sure you vet the product you’re buying)

WR

• Of 317 selected, only 74 have become starters for at least half their careers.
• The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
• The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.
• The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%.

Conclusion- You want skill, just like RBs, you have to spend early and often. 58% tells me if you need a WR you have to double down in the 1st and 2nd to ensure you get one good starter. The case for taking skill positions early is glaring and honestly one that I didn’t expect at all. I would have thought WRs hit late a lot more than they actually do.

DL

• Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.
• Of 442 players selected, only 114 have become starters for at least half their careers.
• Drafting a defensive lineman in the 4th round has the highest success rate of all positions at 37%.
• The success rates are as follows: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 26%, 3rd - 27%, 4th - 37%, 5th - 13%, 6th - 13%, 7th - 3%

Conclusion- Another position that has a low 1st round grade. To me this shows that we clearly miss the mark on scouting here. But since there are so many drafted every year you would expect the percentages to be lower at this position as only DB has more players drafted then DL.

LB

• Of the 303 players drafted, 72 became starters for at least half their careers.
• Almost half of the linebackers drafted came in rounds 5-7 but only 5 total starters came from those rounds.
• If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate. As a matter of fact, Linebackers have the second highest first round success rate behind only the offensive line. 70% of first round linebackers were starters for at least half of their careers.
• There isn't much drop off in the second round either, with a success rate of 55%.
• The third round isn't that bad at 34% but after that the drop is steep with the 4th round plummeting to 16%, the 5th round to 4%, 5% in the 6th and only 2% success in the 7th.

Conclusion- LBs are a position you are almost better off taking in the 2nd and 3rd considering the success rate is just as good as other positions 1st round success. However ~150 coming in rounds 5-7 and only 5 being starterss says if you wait till the 4th you might as well wait till next year.

DB

• Of the 510 defensive backs drafted, 121 became starters.
• You have the same success rate drafting a DB in the 7th round as you do drafting one in the 4th (11%)
• After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)
• DBs provide the best success potential in the 7th round versus other positions in that round.

Conclusion- A very good success rate in the 1st round says taking a DB there is smart. However, the success rates later on says don’t spend to much early and use late picks on the position.

Notes

• This doesn’t account for stars or evaluating the level of how good a starter is. Generational talent should be taken no matter what in the 1st round (make sure you scout right)
• QBs seem to be first round or bust, that’s why we discuss the few that were taken outside and use the same 3 or 4 as examples of “well this guy wasn’t a 1st rounder”.
• O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet as is Linebacker. If you don’t have a glaring hole taking these positions is the safe choice
• If you want skill you have to pay for it. Many people (including myself) argue not to take backs early but data tells us otherwise
• WR is a 50/50 crapshoot in the 1st or second past that you might want to spend elsewhere
• Trading 4-7th round picks for 1-3rd round is by far and away a great strategy that we don’t see much, the success later on in the draft is way to low for my liking as the developmental talent doesn’t develop that often at all

Great effort and nice read.

 

[NJeff]

Great thread !!! Very interesting and someone did a lot of work. One thing left off was undrafted players. Would have been nice to see how they fit in. I would imagine a lot of them get to decide where they want to play and where they have the best chance of sticking so they might have better overall numbers than 7th rounders.

You asked for undrafted and here they are. I had to lower it to 2003 to 2013 because it was easier based off a website I found. The data is a less because so many players go into the undrafted pool but here is a look at the players who became starters. Ill try to add small school success also…


Quarterback: Outside of Romo, 2 QBs that were better backups then starters and really nothing else

Tony Romo (2003) Shaun Hill (2005), Matt Moore (2007)



Running Back: This is the position where undrafted free agents are most likely to make an impact (besides special teams)

Arian Foster (2009) Willie Parker (2004), Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Pierre Thomas (all 2007), BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mike Tolbert, (both 2008), Danny Woodhead (2009), LeGarrette Blount (2010)


Fullback: Since so few FBs are used or taken in the draft there are quality ones left undrafted

Vonta Leach (2004)John Kuhn (2006), Leonard Weaver (2005), Marcel Reece (2008)



Wide Receivers: Some solid ones here but not many game changers. However, this is a spot that you can get talent. Especially at the slot WR position.

Wes Welker (2004), Victor Cruz (2010), and Miles Austin (2006) Malcom Floyd (2004), Nate Washington (2005), Lance Moore (2006), Davone Bess (2008), Danny Amendola (2009), Mike Furrey (2003)


Tight End: Antonio Gates….enough said

Antonio Gates (2003) Ben Utecht (2005), Tom Crabtree (2010), Jake Ballard (2010)



Tackle: Not many tackles make it out of the draft. Pretty slim

Jason Peters (2004) Donald Penn (2007), Demetress Bell (2008) Tyson Clabo (2006)Cornell Green (2002), Erik Pears (2006)



INTERIOR LINE: You better draft your lineman

Left Guard: Kris Dielman (2003) Ryan Lilja (2004)

Center: Jamaal Jackson (2005)Lyle Sendlein (2007), Kyle Cook (2008)

Right Guard: Brandon Moore (2003)Steve Neal (2002), Harvey Dahl (2006)

 

[NJeff]

And Defense


DL: There aren’t enough “athletes” that have this kind of size and could move well so don’t plan on ones that do making it through the draft. However, at end/outside there are a few absolute stars

4-3 Defensive End/3-4 Outside Linebacker:

James Harrison (2002), Cameron Wake (2009)Chris Clemons (2004), Israel Idonije (2004), Michael Bennett (2009)

4-3 Defensive Tackle/3-4 Defensive End:

Cullen Jenkins (2004), Tommy Kelly (2004)Jacques Cesaire, Mike DeVito (2007), Desmond Bryant (2009)

Nose Tackle:

Ma’ake Kemoeatu (2002)Chris Hoke (2004)


4-3 Outside Linebacker: Not much at all except Burfict who was a 1st rounder at some points but his off field and attitude caused him to drop

Nick Roach (2007), David Hawthorne (2008),Tracy White (2002), Akeem Jordan (2007), Donnie Spragan (2002), Vontaze Burfict (2012)



Inside Linebacker: A few starters

Bart Scott (2002), Paris Lenon (2002)Gary Brackett (2003), Stephen Cooper (2003), Jameel McClain (2008), Dannell Ellerbe (2009)



Cornerback: Since these guys are smaller its easier to find CBs outside of the draft.

Tramon Williams (2007), Brent Grimes (2007), Brandon Browner (2011)Jabari Greer (2004), Leigh Bodden (2003), Randall Gay (2004), Kelly Herndon (2002)



Safety: I don’t need size or elite athletic skills? Here is where undrafted shine

Ryan Clark (2002), Quintin Mikell (2003)Brian Russell (2002), Will Demps (2002), Mike Adams (2004), Jordan Babineaux (2004), Jim Leonhard (2005), M.D. Jennings (2011),



Special Teams: Beef up outside of the draft. There is talent here

Returner:

Josh Cribbs (2005)Chris Carr (2005), Eddie Drummond (2002), Stefan Logan (2009)

Kicker:

Dan Carpenter (2008)Matt Prater (2007), Steven Hauschka (2008)

Punter:

Mat McBriar (2004)Chris Kluwe (2005), Dirk Johnson (2002), Ben Graham (2005)

Special Teams Ace:

Kassim Osgood (2003)Eric Weems (2007), James Ihedigbo (2008)

 

[NJeff]

Small Schools....

For 2020 Out of the 1,696 players on NFL active rosters, 1,512 (89 percent) come from FBS schools. Bottom line is drafting outside of the FBS is a dart throw, most of them aren’t starters but you did have a few hidden gems that have become stars

Matt Judon, John Brown, Greg Zuerlein, Tyreek Hill, Austin Ekeler, Adam Theilen, Pierre Desir

And of course 2 future HOF in Zach Seiler and Adam Shaheen haha.

 

[Ferretsquig]

I do think its skewed a bit because of the pressure to play higher picks regardless of their production. Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Gabbert, Ponder, Tebow....all these first round QBs who would have never been starters for long if they had been drafted in the 6th round instead of the 1st.

Its a little easier to give up on positional players but I do think you'll find a similar trend of teams tolerating below average production from first round picks longer than later selections. In any case those first round percentages are not equivalent to the success rate of the player in this league.

 

[LargoFin]

What is the benchmark for success? That a player is a starter for half of their career?

 

[NJeff]

What is the benchmark for success? That a player is a starter for half of their career?

Thats what was used. I know it's not the best and as the previous poster said data can be skewed but I felt this is good data without having to dive into every player over a 10 year span and adding my own subjective spin on who was good or not

 

[LargoFin]

Thats what was used. I know it's not the best and as the previous poster said data can be skewed but I felt this is good data without having to dive into every player over a 10 year span and adding my own subjective spin on who was good or not

I just want to know. I think that's a good benchmark. I just don't know how it was applied. For example, some player could have had a 4 year career and some other a 12 year career and four contracts. That's apples and oranges.

 

[Burt Macklin]

So with the draft right here lets look at the numbers by position to help weed out any misconceptions about where you can find the most talent. Now obviously there are exceptions to every rule and data can be slightly skewed but a 10 year span ending 5 years ago gives us decent data to at least be informed I pulled this info from a few websites and other I added in my thoughts. Hopefully, some people find this usefull…



QB

• Of the 122 QBs drafted between 2005 and 2015 only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.
• The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
• The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.

Conclusion- If you want a QB it has to be in the 1st. Unless you want to really gamble and play hard against the odds. Even the 63% taken in the 1st during this time only Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were the only “stars”



RB

• Of the 207 players drafted 33 have become starters for half their careers. This gives an indication that there is a lot of Running Back By Committee (RBBC).
• There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.

Conclusion- The misconception of you can get great backs later in the draft is simply not true. While the 1st round only provides 58% chance the drop to 25% in the 2nd shows if there is an elite talent you have to grab them unless you are ok with the RBBC approach and having a few not elite backs (which clearly does work for some teams)

OL

• Of the 421 players drafted, 147 wound up as starters for at least half their career.
• The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
• The later round success rates hold up well (5th and 6th - 16%, 7th - 9%) but the numbers are driven down due to the higher numbers selected later.

Conclusion- Lineman believe it or not have some of the best success rates early and later on. While getting someone dominate in the first has a higher chance there are more then a few that came out later. In fact, at Tackle and Guard there is multiple people drafted after the 1st in every single year that have gone on not to just be starters but damn good quality starters (pro bowlers up). So when talking Oline it is more appropriate to discuss how important is having a dominate player and the relation to wins vs having quality starters and how much of a loss that is.

TE

• Tight ends are rarely drafted in the first round. Only nine tight ends were drafted in the first round in the last decade. Of those nine, six have had success.
• The success rate for tight ends is as follows: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%, 5th - 32%, 6th - 26%, 7th - 0%. In other words, selecting a tight end in the 3rd through 6th doesn't make a lot of difference.
• The highest number of tight ends has been selected in the 7th round (31) with the least amount of success (0%)

Conclusion- If you want a TE you have to get one early. The problem is there are plenty of years where there isn’t anyone worth drafting high, so the years there is one…. you have to spend capital if you value the position. (but you really need to make sure you vet the product you’re buying)

WR

• Of 317 selected, only 74 have become starters for at least half their careers.
• The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
• The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.
• The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%.

Conclusion- You want skill, just like RBs, you have to spend early and often. 58% tells me if you need a WR you have to double down in the 1st and 2nd to ensure you get one good starter. The case for taking skill positions early is glaring and honestly one that I didn’t expect at all. I would have thought WRs hit late a lot more than they actually do.

DL

• Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.
• Of 442 players selected, only 114 have become starters for at least half their careers.
• Drafting a defensive lineman in the 4th round has the highest success rate of all positions at 37%.
• The success rates are as follows: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 26%, 3rd - 27%, 4th - 37%, 5th - 13%, 6th - 13%, 7th - 3%

Conclusion- Another position that has a low 1st round grade. To me this shows that we clearly miss the mark on scouting here. But since there are so many drafted every year you would expect the percentages to be lower at this position as only DB has more players drafted then DL.

LB

• Of the 303 players drafted, 72 became starters for at least half their careers.
• Almost half of the linebackers drafted came in rounds 5-7 but only 5 total starters came from those rounds.
• If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate. As a matter of fact, Linebackers have the second highest first round success rate behind only the offensive line. 70% of first round linebackers were starters for at least half of their careers.
• There isn't much drop off in the second round either, with a success rate of 55%.
• The third round isn't that bad at 34% but after that the drop is steep with the 4th round plummeting to 16%, the 5th round to 4%, 5% in the 6th and only 2% success in the 7th.

Conclusion- LBs are a position you are almost better off taking in the 2nd and 3rd considering the success rate is just as good as other positions 1st round success. However ~150 coming in rounds 5-7 and only 5 being starterss says if you wait till the 4th you might as well wait till next year.

DB

• Of the 510 defensive backs drafted, 121 became starters.
• You have the same success rate drafting a DB in the 7th round as you do drafting one in the 4th (11%)
• After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)
• DBs provide the best success potential in the 7th round versus other positions in that round.

Conclusion- A very good success rate in the 1st round says taking a DB there is smart. However, the success rates later on says don’t spend to much early and use late picks on the position.

Notes

• This doesn’t account for stars or evaluating the level of how good a starter is. Generational talent should be taken no matter what in the 1st round (make sure you scout right)
• QBs seem to be first round or bust, that’s why we discuss the few that were taken outside and use the same 3 or 4 as examples of “well this guy wasn’t a 1st rounder”.
• O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet as is Linebacker. If you don’t have a glaring hole taking these positions is the safe choice
• If you want skill you have to pay for it. Many people (including myself) argue not to take backs early but data tells us otherwise
• WR is a 50/50 crapshoot in the 1st or second past that you might want to spend elsewhere
• Trading 4-7th round picks for 1-3rd round is by far and away a great strategy that we don’t see much, the success later on in the draft is way to low for my liking as the developmental talent doesn’t develop that often at all

So basically we want 10 1st round picks to ensure highest probability of drafting starters lol.

Wow, those stats are impressive

 

[next-year]

Probability per round is so important to take into account. It drives me absolutely mad when you have someone telling you " you don't need to find QB in round 1 looks at Brady or Wilson". Using complete outliers as the foundation for their argument.

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

So with the draft right here lets look at the numbers by position to help weed out any misconceptions about where you can find the most talent. Now obviously there are exceptions to every rule and data can be slightly skewed but a 10 year span ending 5 years ago gives us decent data to at least be informed I pulled this info from a few websites and other I added in my thoughts. Hopefully, some people find this usefull…



QB

• Of the 122 QBs drafted between 2005 and 2015 only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.
• The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
• The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.

Conclusion- If you want a QB it has to be in the 1st. Unless you want to really gamble and play hard against the odds. Even the 63% taken in the 1st during this time only Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were the only “stars”

Why is Ryan Tannehill not on your list of stars? Ryan threw for more yards than Luck, more Touchdowns than Luck, has a higher career QB rating than Luck, and has two years of QB ratings higher than Luck ever posted. Luck is on your list why not Ryan?

Sorry but things were too quiet around here, had to get something started.

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

So basically we want 10 1st round picks to ensure highest probability of drafting starters lol.

Wow, those stats are impressive

I know you were joking but it goes a long way in understanding why Flo and co. are so willing to trade a 1st rounder today for 2 1st rounders in the future.

 

[Burt Macklin]

I know you were joking but it goes a long way in understanding why Flo and co. are so willing to trade a 1st rounder today for 2 1st rounders in the future.

Yeah I'm just a pessimist usually.

It is funny how 1st round draft busts seem to get implanted in our minds like Dion Jordan, when the 1st round mostly produces the most starters. I guess it is the high expectations.

If a 4th rounder never makes it, no one cries too much, if a 1st rounder busts, Gams lose their job lol