I can tell you that Las Vegas doesn't like preseason because the public basically doesn't participate so they are booking heavily into wise guy action. I know lots of guys who don't bet NFL at all other than preseason. They player poker all year and may dabble in other sports but their pro football betting is confined to August alone. They start studying it months in advance and are incredibly optimistic and energized. A handful of public handicappers have a great history during preseason and have earned a huge following.
It's never been my gig because I like to rely on systems and not subjectivity. Everything that applies best to preseason wagering doesn't work during the regular season, and the reverse is true.
Preseason numbers can move quite a bit. You don't get the take back. It's generally a one-way street. The reason the sportsbooks and bookmakers love the NFL regular season is it's exactly the opposite. As long as you have reliable power ratings, there's always a steady stream of bettors willing to take either side. Often the public lines up on one side while the so-called sharps back the other side.
I notice that we are peddling the theme that a pointspread is not actually a prediction of the outcome, and that the books don't care who wins. I still have no idea how that ignorance makes it to so many lips and keyboards. Sportsbook managers can be the biggest babies on the planet. They whine and cry in the sportsbook office when things don't go their way. Two years ago the football season featured one petulant outburst after another as the bettors cleaned up on the favorites. Too bad there isn't a Hard Knocks version of behind the scenes at a sportsbook so we could get rid of the laughable mythology. Even if a pointspread never moves that hardly means you get balanced action and don't have a rooting interest. The computer will reveal let's say a $50,000 loss if Team A covers and $68,000 profit if Team B covers. That goes on all year long. You've got to be a moron to believe it's guaranteed profit either way. And trust me those sportsbook managers root desperately for the side they need. Some of them sit at home and sweat every result while calling the nighttime crew to give them the breakdown on every game, whether there's jeopardy to a big parlay, etc.
The props themselves reveal that the spread is indeed a prediction of the outcome. On a game with a 7 point spread and 47 point total, the favorite will have a team total over/runder of 27 and the underdog will have a team total over/under of 20. Gee, I wonder how they arrived at those numbers, if the spread and total are merely designed to balance action and not a prediction of the outcome?
