Evaluating the value of the RB position | Page 8 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Evaluating the value of the RB position

SammySmif said:
I touched on zach moss when i mentioned the bills. I dont think hes a star rb.

as for akers, i wanted him badly on the fins but he went before we could pick.

and thats the point here. The fins keep just missing on star offensive players in recent drafts. If rectifying that means picking who I believe to be an elite rb in Harris early, thats fine with me.
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I agree with you on both Akers and Moss. I thought we were definitely going to get one of Akers or Dobbins at the #56 when both were on the board with 4 picks left. I'm surprised I forgot to list Akers. Even more surprised I left off Antonio Gibson at #66.

Moss was a late 3rd rounder so I'm not expecting a star there. I mainly think a player like him and Gaskin could create an acceptable complimentary backfield.

If you want a star RB, I get why you would not be happy with that scenario.

I'm with you on being frustrated on missing out on star offensive players. I was pissed when Ceedee slipped to one pick ahead of us (even though I knew we were locked in on tackle). I still wanted us to take Jefferson, but that's another convo.

And yeah, not getting Dobbins/Akers stung when I thought both were great value there. I basically had JK penciled in as our pick as the clock was ticking down for Baltimore. They show that you can definitely get a very good RB pick 50 or later though. We just missed out.

But when it comes to the draft I usually like a BPA approach and I don't want to start reaching (at any position) out of frustration simply due to our consistent bad luck.
 
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bdizzle00 said:
Exactly correct. And look at what picks the top 10-15 current WRs were drafted at? I think only Amari Cooper was drafted earlier than #20. People lose all objectivity because they fall in love with a players college performance, ignore history, and say things like "if you think he's your guy, just take him regardless of where". That's another way of saying reach.
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Yeah, WR's had by far the lowest drop off in success rate in that study from 1st to 2nd round (58% compared to 49%). I can post a list I made of WR's picked in the top 10 since 2000 from an old post. The bust rate is not good.

Don't really understand why the skill positions seem to be the hardest for scouts to get right. It's not something I want to hear considering the main issue I want to fix is our abysmal WR core.

For everyone out there frustrated with our RB situation, I was ten times worse watching games where Jakeem was our #2. Wherever we pick a WR or WR's in the first 2 rounds, we can't afford to miss there.
 
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2000: Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, Travis Taylor
2001: David Terrell, Koren Robinson
2002: none
2003: Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson
2004: Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams
2005: Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams
2006: none
2007: Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn
2008: none
2009: Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree
2010: none
2011: AJ Green, Julio Jones
2012: Justin Blackmon
2013: Tavon Austin
2014: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans
2015: Amari Cooper, Kevin White
2016: none
2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross
2018: none
2019: none
2020: none

Definitely some elite/great names in there. Andre Johnson, Larry Fitz, Megatron, AJ Green, Julio, Evans, and Cooper. But it's the number of complete whiffs that is surprising.
 
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TheRevoltingBlob said:
Yeah, WR's had by far the lowest drop off in success rate in that study from 1st to 2nd round (58% compared to 49%). I can post a list I made of WR's picked in the top 10 since 2000 from an old post. The bust rate is not good.

Don't really understand why the skill positions seem to be the hardest for scouts to get right. It's not something I want to hear considering the main issue I want to fix is our abysmal WR core.

For everyone out there frustrated with our RB situation, I was ten times worse watching games where Jakeem was our #2. Wherever we pick a WR or WR's in the first 2 rounds, we can't afford to miss there.
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I don't think it's just WRs.

Some positions don't get drafted as often (K, P, FB, etc), so their success rate is not realized. Some are so over-analyzed or under-valued that fans don't realize how they are forgiven or overlooked in the process of deciding the success of a team.

For example, for how long has the modern NFL foregone trying to develop QBs? David Garrad was drafted in the 4th round. Tom Brady in the 6th. But we don't evaluate how those teams would have been viewed if those late round QBs hadn't been discovered. We focus solely on the 1st Round success rate.

So, if a team doesn't have a 1st Round QB then they should close shop and forfeit all games that season?

Talent development is a lost art. That is why high round draft picks bear so much burden for success today; teams can develop elite players. If they can't draft them, they go buy them.

Sustainability is about attrition. You can either maintain a level of success with any collection of guys and not just 1st Rounders. Every year may not be championship years, but consistently 9+ wins is the mark of a good player development staff and coaches.

And that is the real void in the NFL; coaching.
 
Don't worry DPhinz, once we get Harris he'll create some major worries for defenses. Are you not a fan?
 
TheRevoltingBlob said:
I agree with you on both Akers and Moss. I thought we were definitely going to get one of Akers or Dobbins at the #56 when both were on the board with 4 picks left. I'm surprised I forgot to list Akers. Even more surprised I left off Antonio Gibson at #66.

Moss was a late 3rd rounder so I'm not expecting a star there. I mainly think a player like him and Gaskin could create an acceptable complimentary backfield.

If you want a star RB, I get why you would not be happy with that scenario.

I'm with you on being frustrated on missing out on star offensive players. I was pissed when Ceedee slipped to one pick ahead of us (even though I knew we were locked in on tackle). I still wanted us to take Jefferson, but that's another convo.

And yeah, not getting Dobbins/Akers stung when I thought both were great value there. I basically had JK penciled in as our pick as the clock was ticking down for Baltimore. They show that you can definitely get a very good RB pick 50 or later though. We just missed out.

But when it comes to the draft I usually like a BPA approach and I don't want to start reaching (at any position) out of frustration simply due to our consistent bad luck.
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Yeah thats fine, but my thought is we need a legit stud RB to take the prtessure off of Tua . Gaskin is a nice 2nd RB, but I’m not into acceptable anymore. Acceptable hasn’t really gotten our offense off the ground.

Anyway, lots to mull over for the next 3 months. Plenty of things can change. I know one thing - this is a great draft for OTs, WRs and RBs if you are willing to commit early (rounds 1-2), and those are all positions of need for us.
 
SammySmif said:
Yeah thats fine, but my thought is we need a legit stud RB to take the prtessure off of Tua . Gaskin is a nice 2nd RB, but I’m not into acceptable anymore. Acceptable hasn’t really gotten our offense off the ground.

Anyway, lots to mull over for the next 3 months. Plenty of things can change. I know one thing - this is a great draft for OTs, WRs and RBs if you are willing to commit early (rounds 1-2), and those are all positions of need for us.
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I'm with you about not being into acceptable. In fact right now I wish we had acceptable. And I'm not talking about just our RB situation. Essentially none of our offensive units were acceptable last year. The Oline, WR, and RB play were all near the bottom of the league last year. The only unit that was acceptable were the TE's. This is why I am talking about priorities. We just have a lot of areas that need improvement on offense.

Flowers and Karras (who we still have to see if we re-sign) are average at best, and I'm not overly optimistic that solely relying on internal growth from our 3 rookies can make this line average to above average next season. And our current WR's are often injured and unreliable. I'm waiting to see if we can pull anything off in free agency, or if we lose Karras without replacing him, before I feel I can decide how aggressive we can be in trying to get our RB. And I hope pick 50 still has guys on the board that were as good as the ones we missed out on last year if we go that route.

The bottom line is that if we still don't have acceptable (or god forbid better than acceptable) WR and Oline play next season, we aren't putting Tua in a position to succeed regardless of who the RB is.
 
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BSQ said:
Don't worry DPhinz, once we get Harris he'll create some major worries for defenses. Are you not a fan?
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Harris won't cause major anything. If we draft him, he'll be the starter...that's all :shrug:. He won't pose any problem to any LB/S who has to cover him out of the backfield because he won't outrun anyone. He poses no threat besides being able to run harder than the RBs we have in house.
 
DPhinz_DPhinz said:
Harris won't cause major anything. If we draft him, he'll be the starter...that's all :shrug:. He won't pose any problem to any LB/S who has to cover him out of the backfield because he won't outrun anyone. He poses no threat besides being able to run harder than the RBs we have in house.
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They will have a problem tackling him.
 
DPhinz, you must have a RB you prefer, is it Etienne? Or do you think we shouldn't go RB in the draft at all? I don't think we should stand pat with a couple of undersized scat backs. I hope the Fins land Harris and he makes you a fan with his great play as a Dolphin.
 
Kebo said:
They will have a problem tackling him.
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Yeah, despite his lack of breakaway speed, Najee was an extremely impressive and well rounded back. The way I'd put it is I view him as a day 1 level talent that happens to play a day 2 position (due to the various reasons I gave).

But let's not get crazy and pretend he doesn't project to be a very significant upgrade over our current backfield.

@DPhinz_DPhinz I'm actually curious about your answer to BSQ's question. Are you simply more of an Etienne guy?
 
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TheRevoltingBlob said:
Yeah, despite his lack of breakaway speed, Najee was an extremely impressive and well rounded back. The way I'd put it is I view him as a day 1 level talent that happens to play a day 2 position (due to the various reasons I gave).

But let's not get crazy and pretend he doesn't project to be a very significant upgrade over our current backfield.

@DPhinz_DPhinz I'm actually curious about your answer to BSQ's question. Are you simply more of an Etienne guy?
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BSQ said:
DPhinz, you must have a RB you prefer, is it Etienne? Or do you think we shouldn't go RB in the draft at all? I don't think we should stand pat with a couple of undersized scat backs. I hope the Fins land Harris and he makes you a fan with his great play as a Dolphin.
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I am 100% an Etienne guy in our case. If I couldn't get Etienne, then I would settle for Gainwell in the 3rd...depending on his 40 time, BUT If he isn't any faster than Harris/Williams he loses that battle in my eyes. Etienne and Gainwell present the defense with more problems than Harris/Williams.

I look at Tua/Etienne in the same manner as Brees/Kamara. I like what the Saints did there.
 
While we don’t have anyone ‘special’ .... the combination of Gaskin and Ahmed can easily carry us for the next couple years ... don’t get me wrong, Harris is significantly better than both - but do we need him?

We CANNOT say that about our WRs .... there is definitely no one special in that group, and we are severely lacking in speed and play making ability and reliability (consistency).

Lastly, folks keep referring to TUA as a RPO QB, and while he did do that at AL, I seriously doubt that will be the case over his career from what we saw this past year. Yes, we all ‘hope’ that he makes that year 2 jump, with a real offseason + TC ... cuz, if he doesn’t, this FO is gonna look incredibly inept - and frankly stupid for choosing a small frail dude to be your franchise ...
 
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