Explain the "Jump" Tannehill made in 2016

[Tannchise]

One last angle. Yeah Tannehill is coming back. But what if he plays poor? In a draft loaded with qb, might be sensible to go this route. I don't think a team can have too much depth at any position. Based on the injury history of this team, combined with failed 1st round picks based on "need," Miami has an opportunity to solidify the most important position

 

[DKphin]

RT is a Steve Grogan or Brian Sipe kinda QB, if he is even that good.

 

[Vaark]

2011 NY Giants had the 25th ranked defense, and were 32nd in rushing offense.

2010 GB Packers 24th in rushing offense

2015 Broncos 19th ranked offense, 17th ranked rushing offense.

2009 Saints 20th ranked defense

2002 Buccaneers 18th ranked offense, 27th in rushing offense

2006 Colts 23rd ranked defense and 18th ranked rushing offense.

2003 Patriots 27th ranked rushing offense.

Here are 7 Super Bowl winners who didn't even crack the top 15 in defense or rushing.

Here are the dolphins with 2 top 10 defenses and 2 top 12 rushing offenses and 1 lone playoff appearance.

2012 Dolphins 7th ranked defense, 17 ranked rushing offense, 7-9

2013 Dolphins 8th ranked defense, 27th rushing offense, 8-8

2014 Dolphins 20th ranked defense, 12th rushing offense 8-8

2015 Dolphins 19th ranked defense, 23rd rushing offense, 6-10

2016 Dolphins 18th ranked defense, 9th rushing offense 10-6

A couple of counterpoints followed by a related ad hoc study I did last season
Fins/Marino
'84: SB appearance: #1 Offense #7 Defense
'85: won Div Round #4 Offense #12 Defense
'86 8-8 record (sound familiar?) #1 Offense #26 out of 28 Defenses

Future HOF'er Drew Brees/NO Saints
2016: 7-9 #2 Offense #31 Defense
2015: 7-9 #8 Offense #32 Defense
2014: 7-9 #2 Offense #31 Defense

Considering that Drew Brees had a losing record 4 out of 5 years despite putting up top 10 offensive stats, isn't it remarkable that also formerly saddled with the Nos. 31st and 32nd ranked scoring D's, Tannehill put up an 8-5 record with a 7-1 stretch (having top 8 stats over that span) despite his 2016 Defense ranked at #18?

And yeah, your point about who wins the SB is well taken, but before a team can win it, they must make it into the post season, don't they? vis a vis a past ad hoc observation about what those teams had 2014 and '15 vs what Tannehill and the Fins didn't

 

[Daytona Fin]

It's going to be a long offseason

 

[roy_miami]

solid 1st post!

Thats understating it. He waited 6 years to simply put 3 letters: why

Post of the year material

Yes yes yes! 1000% agree with you! These are the same people that said Jay Cutler had a "career year" with Gase, while the numbers were definitely improved they were nothing special really at all. I think the same applies to Tannehill. I have never considered myself a Tannehill hater but I just cannot see what people are talking about when they talk about his 2016 season like it was anything better than slightly above average. It might have been better in comparison to himself but compared to a true franchise QB it was not a special season.

 

[rickd13]

Yeah it's not like Flacco threw 11 td's and 0 ints in his Super Bowl (4 games) run oh wait he did. Well its not like Eli threw 15 tds and 2 ints in those 2 Super Bowl runs (8 games) oh wait he did.

You act like those guys play at an elite level all the time when it is obvious that they don't. You basically contradicted yourself by pointing out that those two average qb's happen to have gotten hot at the right time and won a Super Bowl. What is your evidence that Tannehill can't do the exact same thing? Over the course of his career he has shown the same propensity to get hot and play at a level equal to or better then both Flacco and Manning.

 

[roy_miami]

People say why don’t we go out and get a top 4 QB like it’s easy to do. They don’t grow on trees. The more realistic route to build a Super Bowl winner is to use the mold of the Ravens/Giants/Broncos. Build an elite defense, a solid OL, and a QB that limits mistakes.

Building an elite defense is that easy? If you make 3 lists; elite defenses, elite coaches and elite QBs I think you'll find the elite QBs list is longest. AND if you calculate the odds you'll win a SB with each you'll find the odds of winning with an elite QB is highest over an elite defense, because elite QBs tend to have much more longevity.

What you should be doing is all of the above. Leave no stone unturned in trying to find an elite QB. And try to build an elite defense in the meantime. The Eagles did not settle and its looking like they hit the trifecta. First of all they leapfrogged us and got the QB with elite potential. They traded their "but who are you going to replace him with" Bradfordhill for a first. They have a top 5 defense making a great hire in Schwartz. And Peterson has elite potential as a coach, certainly had elite type stats over his first two season.

If Gase doesn't at least replace Burke then he's already a dead man walking. And Gase is tannehill's last lifeline, when he goes the whole thing unravels. Should happen around 2020'ish, then we get back in the hunt.

 

[MiamiDolfan85]

We were 1-4. The last two games against Cincy and TN, 15/25 189 1/1 and 12/18 191 0/2.
Then Jay Ajayi came to play:
1. Pitt. Ajayi runs for 200. Tannehill is 24/32 252 0 TD
2. Buffalo. Ajayi runs for 200. Tannehill is 15/25 204 1 TD
3.NYJ. Ajayi 111 and Drake KO return. Tannehill 17/28 149 1 TD
4. SD. Kiko TD. Tannehill 17/24 240 2TD
5. LA. Tannehill won game in 4th 24/34 172 2 TD 1 int
6. SF. a solid game 20/30 285 3 TD
7. Baltimore . A chance to get over the hump in a big game on the road 29/40 226 1 TD 3 INT
8. AZ. decent game 15/20 195 3 TD 1int.

Tannehill deserves chance to be on the roster in 2018. However, I stand by the stats above that he was meh. And that two rookies this year in a short period of time, Wentz and Watson, transcended anything above what Tannehill did last year or in years prior. We need to draft competition and I wouldn't be opposed to cutting him post June 1,if we had to. So please, someone explain the average stats above and how that doesn't permit us from looking at qb next year

Cupcake schedule, plus the team was relatively healthy so....yea

 

[hoops]

It's going to be a long offseason

It sure is

 

[Vaark]

Building an elite defense is that easy? If you make 3 lists; elite defenses, elite coaches and elite QBs I think you'll find the elite QBs list is longest. AND if you calculate the odds you'll win a SB with each you'll find the odds of winning with an elite QB is highest over an elite defense, because elite QBs tend to have much more longevity.

What you should be doing is all of the above. Leave no stone unturned in trying to find an elite QB. And try to build an elite defense in the meantime. The Eagles did not settle and its looking like they hit the trifecta. First of all they leapfrogged us and got the QB with elite potential. They traded their "but who are you going to replace him with" Bradfordhill for a first. They have a top 5 defense making a great hire in Schwartz. And Peterson has elite potential as a coach, certainly had elite type stats over his first two season.

If Gase doesn't at least replace Burke then he's already a dead man walking. And Gase is tannehill's last lifeline, when he goes the whole thing unravels. Should happen around 2020'ish, then we get back in the hunt.

By that point, your heartthrob Philbin should be coaching special teams at New Haven High

 

[Liphinphan]

First of all, if someone was banned for a thread like this on another site, then that's a hint toward the caliber of the other site. Someone has a position of authority who doesn't need or deserve it.

After reading the opening post I expected an immediate storm of Tannehill supporters, overstating his value and his 2016. To my amazement the bulk of the thread was actually unfair to Tannehill. He made strides in several areas in 2016. Somebody in the building figured out the deep balls needed to be in the 30-40 yard range and not the full swing driver. Tannehill improved his touch and executed those plays very well. I actually thought there should have been more of them, in substitute of let's say the ever-brilliant flanker screens. Or screens period.

The emergence of Ajayi allowed a power based team for the first time in memory. So gorgeous and satisfying. That enabled Tannehill to pick his spots instead of forcing a Crowd quarterback to wing from the shotgun 40+ times per game, a dependable path to failure. Now it will be interesting to see how Tannehill fares if Gase decides we don't need that physical running game and can rely on Drake and versatility alone. I have my doubts.

Just get rid of all the parallel plays. Regardless of who is playing quarterback. While watching the Dolphins if a pass play develops aggressively toward a downfield dart, then I'm happy and paying attention. If we are looking sideways immediately then I am already mentally cursing, and seldom does the result run counter to my lack of confidence.

Tannehill improved his YPA significantly, which was a great sign. He did it primarily with supreme numbers while trailing and specifically in the third quarter. Over time if he keeps his YPA to the same level as 2016 then everything should balance out in categories like that.

I was not happy in 2016 because that type of season further supported roy miami's awesome summation that Ryan Tannehill was likely to throw away a full decade of our football rooting lives. Yep. It was just enough to move him toward that Top 12 level that I assigned as his upside prior to the 2012 draft. It is a devastating level. Just enough to keep the adjusters satisfied, within the organization and outside. Another year. Maybe another one. Wait there were reasons again, so we need another year. Headed toward that 12 Years of Tannehill My Nightmare Said to Me -- "...Four More Brady Rings, Three Blank Stares, Two First Quarter Punts, and Another Hefty Raise."

I wasn't surprised I could remember it. Tannehill has that stick-em quality, that stain quality.

With a quarterback like this you need supporting superstars all over the roster. How we doin'?

After plummeting from 10 wins, 2018 is another natural uptick season so Tannehill will look fine, assuming he's healthy. But that's the carryover curiosity from 2016...Superman can normally tell if something is wrong with his knee. Superman is Clark Kent and he makes one sharp decision after another.

Somehow our guy was touted as Superman, even if it made no sense whatsoever. Not even five seasons banked. It was as if 2016 was designed as the ultimate Tannehill tease...to keep the adjusters content, to madden those of us scared of a wasted decade, and to laugh at anyone who believed he was indestructible.

Nobody wins

First of all, if someone was banned for a thread like this on another site, then that's a hint toward the caliber of the other site. Someone has a position of authority who doesn't need or deserve it.

After reading the opening post I expected an immediate storm of Tannehill supporters, overstating his value and his 2016. To my amazement the bulk of the thread was actually unfair to Tannehill. He made strides in several areas in 2016. Somebody in the building figured out the deep balls needed to be in the 30-40 yard range and not the full swing driver. Tannehill improved his touch and executed those plays very well. I actually thought there should have been more of them, in substitute of let's say the ever-brilliant flanker screens. Or screens period.

The emergence of Ajayi allowed a power based team for the first time in memory. So gorgeous and satisfying. That enabled Tannehill to pick his spots instead of forcing a Crowd quarterback to wing from the shotgun 40+ times per game, a dependable path to failure. Now it will be interesting to see how Tannehill fares if Gase decides we don't need that physical running game and can rely on Drake and versatility alone. I have my doubts.

Just get rid of all the parallel plays. Regardless of who is playing quarterback. While watching the Dolphins if a pass play develops aggressively toward a downfield dart, then I'm happy and paying attention. If we are looking sideways immediately then I am already mentally cursing, and seldom does the result run counter to my lack of confidence.

Tannehill improved his YPA significantly, which was a great sign. He did it primarily with supreme numbers while trailing and specifically in the third quarter. Over time if he keeps his YPA to the same level as 2016 then everything should balance out in categories like that.

I was not happy in 2016 because that type of season further supported roy miami's awesome summation that Ryan Tannehill was likely to throw away a full decade of our football rooting lives. Yep. It was just enough to move him toward that Top 12 level that I assigned as his upside prior to the 2012 draft. It is a devastating level. Just enough to keep the adjusters satisfied, within the organization and outside. Another year. Maybe another one. Wait there were reasons again, so we need another year. Headed toward that 12 Years of Tannehill My Nightmare Said to Me -- "...Four More Brady Rings, Three Blank Stares, Two First Quarter Punts, and Another Hefty Raise."

I wasn't surprised I could remember it. Tannehill has that stick-em quality, that stain quality.

With a quarterback like this you need supporting superstars all over the roster. How we doin'?

After plummeting from 10 wins, 2018 is another natural uptick season so Tannehill will look fine, assuming he's healthy. But that's the carryover curiosity from 2016...Superman can normally tell if something is wrong with his knee. Superman is Clark Kent and he makes one sharp decision after another.

Somehow our guy was touted as Superman, even if it made no sense whatsoever. Not even five seasons banked. It was as if 2016 was designed as the ultimate Tannehill tease...to keep the adjusters content, to madden those of us scared of a wasted decade, and to laugh at anyone who believed he was indestructible.

Nobody wins

As someone who uses and enjoys multiple Dolphin message boards, I find your comment bizarre. Do you really think that a person was banned for his thoughts on this team or is it more likely that there is more going on behind the scenes? More than a few posters have complained about being banned here and have used the same excuse, explaining the reason to the new message board. Do I think its a reflection on the moderators or the actual site?.....or do I use a bit of common sense and can figure out EXACTLY why they were banned. In this case, the poster knows what he did, after multiple warnings, and continued his ridiculous antics. Same as the people banned from here. Do I think its the quality of the site itself or the actions of the poster? pretty easy to answer that instead of jumping to a foolish conclusion.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

if you want to win a super bowl and be a consistent team year in and out, you need a great qb. obvious i know but that dismisses tannehill as someone to bank on. he is an average qb. he is what he is.

look at the qbs who have represented the afc in the past 20
years. it’s the same ones over and over - brady, manning, roethlisberger.

sure on a random year flacco can sneak in because of a crazy bomb td in denver and miraculous defense, but that is not the norm.

if you are content with being average, then you are all in with tannehill. if you want to try for greatness, you keep drafting a qb every year until you hit a star.

Brady, Manning, and Roethlisberger all won SBs as average QBs.

 

[superphin]

You act like those guys play at an elite level all the time when it is obvious that they don't. You basically contradicted yourself by pointing out that those two average qb's happen to have gotten hot at the right time and won a Super Bowl. What is your evidence that Tannehill can't do the exact same thing? Over the course of his career he has shown the same propensity to get hot and play at a level equal to or better then both Flacco and Manning.

I think the fact that he's going to be 30 years old soon and has zero playoff stats, makes me feel like we shouldn't like were set at QB. He is basically the Marvin Lewis of QB's.

 

[superphin]

A couple of counterpoints followed by a related ad hoc study I did last season
Fins/Marino
'84: SB appearance: #1 Offense #7 Defense
'85: won Div Round #4 Offense #12 Defense
'86 8-8 record (sound familiar?) #1 Offense #26 out of 28 Defenses

Future HOF'er Drew Brees/NO Saints
2016: 7-9 #2 Offense #31 Defense
2015: 7-9 #8 Offense #32 Defense
2014: 7-9 #2 Offense #31 Defense

Considering that Drew Brees had a losing record 4 out of 5 years despite putting up top 10 offensive stats, isn't it remarkable that also formerly saddled with the Nos. 31st and 32nd ranked scoring D's, Tannehill put up an 8-5 record with a 7-1 stretch (having top 8 stats over that span) despite his 2016 Defense ranked at #18?

And yeah, your point about who wins the SB is well taken, but before a team can win it, they must make it into the post season, don't they? vis a vis a past ad hoc observation about what those teams had 2014 and '15 vs what Tannehill and the Fins didn't

At no point in time has Ryan Tannehill ever played with the worst or 2nd worst defense in his entire career. He has had no worse than #20th defense

Lets look at comparable defenses.

Brees 2006 (1st year on saints) #13 defense 10-6 playoffs, 2009 13-3 #20 defense Super Bowl , 2011 13-3 #13 defense playoffs.

Dan Marino 1985 12-4 #12 defense playoffs, 1994 10-6 #17 defense playoffs, 1999 9-7 #19 defense playoffs.

Ryan Tannehill 2013 8-8 #8 defense (better than any of the above for Marino and Brees), 2014 8-8 #20 defense (comparable to 2009 Brees and broken 1999 Marino), 2015 6-10 #19 defense (comparable to 1994 Marino) and 2011 brees whose defense gave up 21.2 vs dolphins 24.3.

Seems to me as long as you give Brees and Marino a no worse than top 20 defense they at least make the playoffs or have a winning record. Besides for 1997 and 1987 Marino made the playoffs every time he had a top 20 defense.

 

[Vaark]

At no point in time has Ryan Tannehill ever played with the worst or 2nd worst defense in his entire career. He has had no worse than #20th defense

Lets look at comparable defenses.

Brees 2006 (1st year on saints) #13 defense 10-6 playoffs, 2009 13-3 #20 defense Super Bowl , 2011 13-3 #13 defense playoffs.

Dan Marino 1985 12-4 #12 defense playoffs, 1994 10-6 #17 defense playoffs, 1999 9-7 #19 defense playoffs.

Ryan Tannehill 2013 8-8 #8 defense (better than any of the above for Marino and Brees), 2014 8-8 #20 defense (comparable to 2009 Brees and broken 1999 Marino), 2015 6-10 #19 defense (comparable to 1994 Marino) and 2011 brees whose defense gave up 21.2 vs dolphins 24.3.

Seems to me as long as you give Brees and Marino a no worse than top 20 defense they at least make the playoffs or have a winning record. Besides for 1997 and 1987 Marino made the playoffs every time he had a top 20 defense.

My mistake.. he has played with the 32 and 31st worst OLs per PFF in '14 and '15. The fact that he again played with the 30th ranked OL in '16 yet managed to go 8-5 on his way to the playoffs including a 7-1 stretch with stats that would make about 22-24 Qbs envious is ample indication that he rose above terrible OLs and mediocre Ds. I defy you to find anyone other than Russell W who has recently made the playoffs with a terrible rated OL. If Tannehill hadn't gotten injured he might have been the other one.

And again, Dan was at his best when his D was top 10 or top dog. And he had a pretty good OL if I recall LOL