Film Room: Josh Rosen’s 1st Pro Start

BlueFin

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PhxSunFan34

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I saw this about the time we made the trade and it's what started to give me a glimmer of hope that he could be a lot better than what his record last year indicated.
 

The Goat

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This is a mantra that has been said over and over...the Fins NEED to give him a pocket to work in. He got abused last year, and that led to developing some bad habits.

New team, new coaches, reboot. hopefully it works out better this time.
 

BlueFin

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This is a mantra that has been said over and over...the Fins NEED to give him a pocket to work in. He got abused last year, and that led to developing some bad habits.

New team, new coaches, reboot. hopefully it works out better this time.
Exactly... that was the point...when he had a healthier line the first game or so....he looked pretty good for a rookie.
 

Mach2

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there was 1 team in the nfl that wanted this guy. here's to hoping the other 31 made a huge mistake.
Your point is valid. There weren't a lot of teams beating the door down to get to him, but that is an oversimplification.

No playoff team, who thought they were "close" was going to give up a 2nd round pick.

No team that already had a young QB they believe in would be interested either.

Take those off the list of 32, and how many are really left?
 

Tureo

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We'd need to consider all teams that signed or drafted a Qb in the 1st 2 rounds. Probably about 8 or 9 teams maybe passed on Rosen who had a need.
 

djphinfan

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I always respected the process of PFF in what they do despite what some others may think, I don’t follow them blindly, just that I take notice, and of course, Ive been trying to allocate and assess blame as it relates to Rosen’s rookie year, this is because of how I felt after watching all his reps last year, relative to what I thought of his skillset coming out of college, I didn’t recognize the player, and I’m trying to understand if my eyes are deceiving me..I’m a big believer in isolation play and performance when it comes to evaluating players...some notes from PFF..


“The rest of the offense didn’t do Rosen any favors either, as the entire unit finished with an overall grade of 56.5, the worst in the NFL. During his first (and last) season in Arizona, the offensive line was nearly non-existent; they produced a pass-blocking grade of 55.8 and a pass-blocking efficiency of 77.6, both of which ranked dead last among teams. All told, Rosen was under pressure on 40.4% of his dropbacks, which was the fifth-highest rate among quarterbacks, and his 2.88 second average time to sack tied for the fourth-fastest rate.

Throughout his rookie season, Rosen was under constant fire behind a porous offensive line, and that frail pass protection resulted in him being sacked in under 2.5 seconds 17 times – the most in the NFL last season. He also struggled mightily when that pressure moved him off his spot, as he generated just a 34.6 passing grade on such plays, throwing one touchdown to six interceptions. When he was kept clean, he threw for 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions — good for a 60.5 grade — suggesting he could see significant improvement with better offensive line play.

However, demonstrating the extent of the losing battle that was his rookie campaign, Rosen also wasn’t given much help from his receivers when the line did manage to hold up: his receivers ended the year with 22 dropped passes and they collectively produced the third-lowest team receiving grade in the league last year. However, when his receivers were able to find separation from their primary coverage defender, Rosen was sharp. In fact, he outperformed Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiler in Miami last season when targeting receivers who had a least a step of separation. On such throws, Rosen recorded an 87.9 passing grade and a big-time throw rate of 4.2%. Tannehill, on the other hand, recorded just a 75.5 passing grade and a big-time throw rate of 1.2%, while Osweiler posted a 73.3 passing grade and a 1.8% big-time throw rate. “


He didn’t have it just bad, he had it worse than anyone..

There are some things that I see correlating with these numbers compared to what I saw when I watched his games that maybe Blurring my own eyes, like I said, , when I watched his reps in Arizona I came away disappointed and sometimes confused with the look of his game, that’s because of the first round grade I had on him in college.

And Those things were, a player who was not ready to start, a player who did so under dire circumstances, a player who didn’t have his confidence, and couldn’t find the speed of the game to play within his rhythm, a player who had the worst coaching situation throughout the year, a poor team around him, worst actually in football according to PFF, and so, so much distraction from moving parts.......also, kid was 21 years old..

Personally I didn’t recognize the skillset..maybe the discrepancy is related to the variables more than I think..
 

The Goat

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Your point is valid. There weren't a lot of teams beating the door down to get to him, but that is an oversimplification.

No playoff team, who thought they were "close" was going to give up a 2nd round pick.

No team that already had a young QB they believe in would be interested either.

Take those off the list of 32, and how many are really left?
I wanted to make this point, and it's pretty damn relevant, but it's a lot of work.

It's a similar question to ask regarding the 2020 draft:

How many teams that will possibly be worse than the Dolphins will be in the market for a first round QB?

I'm going to go ahead and rule out New England, the Rams, the Chargers, Kansas City, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago, Indy, Dallas, Philly, Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Baltimore and Minnesota, because I don't think there's any way those teams finish with a worse record than Miami.

That's literally over half of the league.

Of the rest, both New York teams, Buffalo, Washington, Arizona and Cleveland have spent a first-round pick on a QB in the past two years. Arizona obviously did it twice. I don't think any of them do it again in 2020 (unless Josh Allen completely implodes).

That leaves Tennessee, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Oakland. Bruce Arians apparently is enamored with Winston (although of course that could change). Jacksonville just signed Nick Foles. Denver drafted Drew Lock (and I think they're going to win more than Miami anyway). San Francisco has Jimmy G on a huge contract.

That leaves Tennessee, Detroit, Cincinnati and Oakland.

I believe Detroit has the potential to be really bad, but they do play a last place schedule...and holy God that Stafford contract. Do they finish worse than the Dolphins, and decide to use a high first round pick on a QB knowing that he'll sit a year behind Stafford? Maybe.

I do not believe Oakland will be worse than Miami. I just don't. They spent a ton on their O-line, added Antonio Brown, and drafted (arguably) the best RB in the draft...and also beefed up their safeties. Could Richie Incognito go bonkers and blow up the stadium? Maybe.

Cincinnati and Tennessee genuinely concern me as two teams who might very well be worse than Miami AND be primed to draft a QB ahead of them. Cincinnati drafted Ryan Finley in the 4th, but I don't think that means a thing...and here's the real fun bit: I believe Derrick Henry is going to be run into the ground in 2019, and he's going to earn a few wins practically by himself...but the other guy who might keep Tennessee from being worse than Miami in 2019? Go ahead. Say his name.

Point being...I think the likelihood of multiple teams that will definitely be poised to select a QB AND finish with a worse record than Miami is fairly slim. If you're in the "Tua or bust because every other QB in the 2020 draft, and also the history of the world, is trash" boat, then maybe be a little worried.
 

Mach2

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I wanted to make this point, and it's pretty damn relevant, but it's a lot of work.

It's a similar question to ask regarding the 2020 draft:

How many teams that will possibly be worse than the Dolphins will be in the market for a first round QB?

I'm going to go ahead and rule out New England, the Rams, the Chargers, Kansas City, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago, Indy, Dallas, Philly, Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Baltimore and Minnesota, because I don't think there's any way those teams finish with a worse record than Miami.

That's literally over half of the league.

Of the rest, both New York teams, Buffalo, Washington, Arizona and Cleveland have spent a first-round pick on a QB in the past two years. Arizona obviously did it twice. I don't think any of them do it again in 2020 (unless Josh Allen completely implodes).

That leaves Tennessee, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Oakland. Bruce Arians apparently is enamored with Winston (although of course that could change). Jacksonville just signed Nick Foles. Denver drafted Drew Lock (and I think they're going to win more than Miami anyway). San Francisco has Jimmy G on a huge contract.

That leaves Tennessee, Detroit, Cincinnati and Oakland.

I believe Detroit has the potential to be really bad, but they do play a last place schedule...and holy God that Stafford contract. Do they finish worse than the Dolphins, and decide to use a high first round pick on a QB knowing that he'll sit a year behind Stafford? Maybe.

I do not believe Oakland will be worse than Miami. I just don't. They spent a ton on their O-line, added Antonio Brown, and drafted (arguably) the best RB in the draft...and also beefed up their safeties. Could Richie Incognito go bonkers and blow up the stadium? Maybe.

Cincinnati and Tennessee genuinely concern me as two teams who might very well be worse than Miami AND be primed to draft a QB ahead of them. Cincinnati drafted Ryan Finley in the 4th, but I don't think that means a thing...and here's the real fun bit: I believe Derrick Henry is going to be run into the ground in 2019, and he's going to earn a few wins practically by himself...but the other guy who might keep Tennessee from being worse than Miami in 2019? Go ahead. Say his name.

Point being...I think the likelihood of multiple teams that will definitely be poised to select a QB AND finish with a worse record than Miami is fairly slim. If you're in the "Tua or bust because every other QB in the 2020 draft, and also the history of the world, is trash" boat, then maybe be a little worried.
That was a lot of work...lol.

You are right, though.

Many ppl assume that the Phins have to have the #1 overall pick to be in position to draft a top QB.

While that would gaurantee their choice, it's probable that drafting 3-5 will give them a shot, as well.

Personally, I prefer that Rosen shows enough to render the point moot.
 

The Goat

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That was a lot of work...lol.

You are right, though.

Many ppl assume that the Phins have to have the #1 overall pick to be in position to draft a top QB.

While that would gaurantee their choice, it's probable that drafting 3-5 will give them a shot, as well.

Personally, I prefer that Rosen shows enough to render the point moot.
I'm not 100% sold that Tua Tagovailoa is the first QB taken, let alone the #1 overall pick.
 

TannDaMan17

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If Miami wants Rosen to be successful in Miami, it's very simple:

1. Fix the defense, this has been the teams biggest problem since Gase was hired.
2. Run the ball frequently and successfully (AT LEAST 3.5 yards a clip).
3. Get the ball out of Rosen's hands as fast as possible until the Oline gets fixed, which will obviously take time.

Most of these have nothing to do with Rosen, but this is what's needed for him (and most NFL QB's) to look better than they actually are because in the NFL we all know the QB gets ALL the blame and ALL the credit for team success/failure.
 

Vaark

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That was a lot of work...lol.

You are right, though.

Many ppl assume that the Phins have to have the #1 overall pick to be in position to draft a top QB.

While that would gaurantee their choice, it's probable that drafting 3-5 will give them a shot, as well.

Personally, I prefer that Rosen shows enough to render the point moot.
Exactly! If you're a Fins fan, you want Rosen to prove that our quest for a franchise QB is over and that the draft capital we amass can then be used to strengthen the team to make his job easier. And that's the best case scenario!
 
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