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First round Lb? Does it make sense for Miami

What needs to happen is the dolphins need to draft a qb in the first round.
 
If he isnt any good then draft another qb in the first and so on until we draft the right one. I know this also involves luck but if we try enough times eventually we will find a keeper.


What we have been doing in the last 20 years, drafting Oline in the first ect hasnt been working.

So do something different and maybe we will find a way to get to the playoffs consistently..
 
fansinceGWilson said:
We disagree. I suppose NE had no luck Brady was still there in R6? No luck for Minn that John Randall went undrafted? Or, let's flip it. What if Leaf were drafted by Indy and LA were 'forced' to take Manning? What if one more team needed a DE before Houston and they missed JJ Watt? There is definitely luck in the draft. Yes, evaluation is VERY important, but accurate evaluation can only succeed if the opportunity is available. Even then, by far, most evaluators have any given player ranked close to all the other teams (NE had Brady as R6 after all), so it's not as though 3-4 teams see talent the others don't. Plus, in any given year, the draft is 'strong' in a particular position and 'weak' in others. Teams have no control over that. It's called luck.
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Wow now that you put it that way I guess the draft is in fact luck.

The isolated occurrences alone appear to be luck. And individually they may be. But team's that continually do well overall in the draft aren't lucky.

It's like saying a guy drawing a queen on the river to win a big pot with a straight is lucky. He may have been lucky right there but to win the table is not luck.
 
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Third Eye said:
Wow now that you put it that way I guess the draft is in fact luck.

The isolated occurrences alone appear to be luck. And individually they may be. But team's that continually do well overall in the draft aren't lucky.

It's like saying a guy drawing a queen on the river to win a big pot with a straight is lucky. He may have been lucky right there but to win the table is not luck.
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Thanks for the comments. To me, it's like picking stocks. There are people very good at it and people who aren't, but luck plays a part. On that same thought, teams, just like gamblers, hit lucky streaks. When an expert is helped by a lucky streak, it's impressive
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Thanks for the comments. To me, it's like picking stocks. There are people very good at it and people who aren't, but luck plays a part. On that same thought, teams, just like gamblers, hit lucky streaks. When an expert is helped by a lucky streak, it's impressive
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There's more skill than luck in talent evaluation. There's a reason teams like NE consistently do well even though picking at the bottom of every round for 15 years while teams like Miami have done poorly over the same length of time. Trading up to pick a guy like Dion jordan third overall is not bad luck. It's bad talent evaluation.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Sorry for not being clearer, but I was not including pass-rush LB's like Watt, Bowser, and Reddick.

Disagree about Davis having better instincts than Jefferson . Jefferson guesses sometimes, but he's much sharper and quicker to react than Davis. Coming into the season, I was in wait-and-see mode with him, because I was concerned about his ability to see the play and react in time, but the move to OLB did him well. If you watch Jefferson and Edmunds' games vs Oklahoma State, you'll notice that Jefferson is currently the better LB, who gets in on more plays, but Edmunds is 1 1/2 years younger.

Disagree on Vander Esch. He's big and fast, and he bodies OL at the POA. That's something that Jefferson, Edmunds, and Vander Esch share. If they get a shoulder in the backfield, OL won't wash them away from the play. Vander Esch isn't as long as Cunningham, and his instincts vs the run are a half-level lower, but he sees the pass better, and he looks significantly faster and more explosive. Cunningham ran in the 4.7's.

In we compare Foster, Cunningham, McMillan, and Davis to Smith, Edmunds, Jefferson, and Vander Esch (leaving out Christian Sam to make it 4 vs 4), we should probably look at the similar players.

Foster vs Smith - give me Smith, who looks faster and sees the play a little quicker, and is 2 years younger than Foster was coming out. Foster does have a better frame.

Davis vs Jefferson - I'll take Jefferson, who makes more plays, has a better frame, and is probably even more athletic. They're almost exactly the same age leaving school.

Cunningham vs Vander Esch - again, give me the 2018 guy, who has more speed, strength, and makes more plays in the passing game, without sacrificing much vs the run. Vander Esch is just slightly younger than Cunningham was.

McMillan vs Edmunds - these guys aren't as similar as the other pairings, with McMillan being more of an ILB, but Edmunds is the better prospect. He's more fluid, bigger, stronger, and he makes more impact plays. He's also 1 1/2 years younger than McMillan was coming out of Ohio State.

With regard to off-ball LB's, 2017 had a good group, with these guys ranging from late-1st to early-2nd RD players. 2018's top guys range from early-1st to mid-1st.
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I don't see any LB comparable to Reuben Foster in this draft. Foster is a rare talent. He is Keuchly, Ray Lewis, idk any other superlatives. He is so damn devastating he ends up hurting himself. His instincts are beyond compare and he hits through people. He is already top 5 MLB.
 
Lovethefish said:
I don't see any LB comparable to Reuben Foster in this draft. Foster is a rare talent. He is Keuchly, Ray Lewis, idk any other superlatives. He is so damn devastating he ends up hurting himself. His instincts are beyond compare and he hits through people. He is already top 5 MLB.
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Foster is a good LB, but he's not in Keuchly or Lewis' range. He wasn't coming out of Alabama, and he wasn't as a rookie for SF. Foster was not - at all - a clean prospect coming out of Alabama, with health and character being the two big red flags. He only played 10 games as a rookie, and he's already gotten himself in trouble this off season. Foster doesn't have tier-1 instincts like Keuchly and Lewis. While he made plays at SF, he also gave up plays by being late to react, and he doesn't make plays on the ball in the passing game. The latter criticism can also be applied to Roquan Smith, but Smith is much, much cleaner than Foster - doesn't have the health or character concerns, and, as I mentioned earlier, he's 2 years younger than Foster was coming out of Alabama. Smith also totaled 85 solo tackles to Foster's 60, so he found the ball at a notably higher rate than Foster did. Their instincts look similar, but Smith is faster. So, in Smith, you have a guy with more room for growth, more speed, more production, and you have a guy who doesn't come with health and character concerns.

I'd rather not draft a LB in the 1st that only plays 10 games and gets into trouble. I don't really care how good his hit highlights look.
 
Third Eye said:
There's more skill than luck in talent evaluation. There's a reason teams like NE consistently do well even though picking at the bottom of every round for 15 years while teams like Miami have done poorly over the same length of time. Trading up to pick a guy like Dion jordan third overall is not bad luck. It's bad talent evaluation.
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I think you need to re-read my post which I've pasted below. Nowhere did I say 'luck' in evaluation. evaluation IS talent (although it is a messy inexact exercise (e.g., Brady and Gloulston). My point is evaluation is not relevant if the targeted player is already gone or EVERYONE'S evaluation is wrong (Zack Thomas). Evaluating a player as the only R1 talent at his position does no good if he's gone at a team's R1 pick. Someone posted data showing an 'elite' QB comes around every 3-4 years. What if a team needs a QB when the top prospect is Bortles? Or, more generously, it's a 'weak' class for QBs? There is a LOT of luck in the draft. Luck in opportunity, not in evaluation.

<previous post>
I suppose NE had no luck Brady was still there in R6? No luck for Minn that John Randall went undrafted? Or, let's flip it. What if Leaf were drafted by Indy and LA were 'forced' to take Manning? What if one more team needed a DE before Houston and they missed JJ Watt? There is definitely luck in the draft. Yes, evaluation is VERY important, but accurate evaluation can only succeed if the opportunity is available. Even then, by far, most evaluators have any given player ranked close to all the other teams (NE had Brady as R6 after all), so it's not as though 3-4 teams see talent the others don't. Plus, in any given year, the draft is 'strong' in a particular position and 'weak' in others. Teams have no control over that. It's called luck.
 
Getting Raekwon McMillan back who hasn't played a down in regular season is an extra pick up for 2018. A 1st Rounder LBer this draft is a great addition. Huge upgrade to that unit. 2 Linebackers who are 1st and 2nd rounders added instantly. I hope the Phins do it. Instant fix in my mind. No brainer.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
I think you need to re-read my post which I've pasted below. Nowhere did I say 'luck' in evaluation. evaluation IS talent (although it is a messy inexact exercise (e.g., Brady and Gloulston). My point is evaluation is not relevant if the targeted player is already gone or EVERYONE'S evaluation is wrong (Zack Thomas). Evaluating a player as the only R1 talent at his position does no good if he's gone at a team's R1 pick. Someone posted data showing an 'elite' QB comes around every 3-4 years. What if a team needs a QB when the top prospect is Bortles? Or, more generously, it's a 'weak' class for QBs? There is a LOT of luck in the draft. Luck in opportunity, not in evaluation.

<previous post>
I suppose NE had no luck Brady was still there in R6? No luck for Minn that John Randall went undrafted? Or, let's flip it. What if Leaf were drafted by Indy and LA were 'forced' to take Manning? What if one more team needed a DE before Houston and they missed JJ Watt? There is definitely luck in the draft. Yes, evaluation is VERY important, but accurate evaluation can only succeed if the opportunity is available. Even then, by far, most evaluators have any given player ranked close to all the other teams (NE had Brady as R6 after all), so it's not as though 3-4 teams see talent the others don't. Plus, in any given year, the draft is 'strong' in a particular position and 'weak' in others. Teams have no control over that. It's called luck.
Click to expand...

Luck in opportunity. Brady, Randall, Z Thomas as gems. We all get that. Each draft pick on its own has luck of opportunity, but if teams hold to their beliefs of BPA then, over time, teams should be doing better than what we have seen from Miami all these years. Is your point to excuse the epic and repeated failure of the Fins front office for 15 years plus?

Bottom line is Miami needs to draft a QB. They need a good one. They also need other positional help including LB, WR, OL, DL. There should be NO lack of opportunity in every round if Miami could properly and consistently uncover players that will pan out.

Instead they repeatedly draft guys with "dead eyes syndrome" - Tunsil, Parker, Jordan to name just a few. Miami simply cannot get past the measurables and into the minds of these kids to see what really motivates them.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Foster is a good LB, but he's not in Keuchly or Lewis' range. He wasn't coming out of Alabama, and he wasn't as a rookie for SF. Foster was not - at all - a clean prospect coming out of Alabama, with health and character being the two big red flags. He only played 10 games as a rookie, and he's already gotten himself in trouble this off season. Foster doesn't have tier-1 instincts like Keuchly and Lewis. While he made plays at SF, he also gave up plays by being late to react, and he doesn't make plays on the ball in the passing game. The latter criticism can also be applied to Roquan Smith, but Smith is much, much cleaner than Foster - doesn't have the health or character concerns, and, as I mentioned earlier, he's 2 years younger than Foster was coming out of Alabama. Smith also totaled 85 solo tackles to Foster's 60, so he found the ball at a notably higher rate than Foster did. Their instincts look similar, but Smith is faster. So, in Smith, you have a guy with more room for growth, more speed, more production, and you have a guy who doesn't come with health and character concerns.

I'd rather not draft a LB in the 1st that only plays 10 games and gets into trouble. I don't really care how good his hit highlights look.
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How's that for timing?
 
Was about to post the Foster news, I was worried about the player more from a health standpoint but wow. So that’s twice arrested correct? Guess San Fran is in the LB market.
 
Third Eye said:
Luck in opportunity. Brady, Randall, Z Thomas as gems. We all get that. Each draft pick on its own has luck of opportunity, but if teams hold to their beliefs of BPA then, over time, teams should be doing better than what we have seen from Miami all these years. Is your point to excuse the epic and repeated failure of the Fins front office for 15 years .
Click to expand...

My points are two
1) luck affects all 32 teams
2) skill isn't the only factor. Reality is messed than many admit
 
well now that's 2 teams Edmunds must get past san fran and Oakland...san fran 34 silb thumper...foster was playing out of position if he wasn't the 34 wilb in san fran

Zach Cunningham was a much better prospect than most the kids in this lb class... the texas kid might be more of a north south missile but his feel for the position doesn't come close to cunninghams...

matthew Thomas on day 3 is interesting but evidently he has an extensive injury history...game looks wlb but athlete doesn't look ideal for it...solid player though...his smarts as a wolb would have to offset the athlete...that's hard to do at the nfl level...poa play meh and a little light in the pants considering the athlete

sam looks 2 downish to me...thumper type...poor mans vontaze burflict maybe...faster but instincts not on the same level

best bargain is josey jewell

vander esch and darius leonard most upside although id categorize leonards as a little risky

all but matthew Thomas hear their names called in the first 2 days...possibly sam joins him depending on what he runs

steer clear of the texas kid cause the explosion athlete for his size is gonna get him overdrafted
 
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