Flynnsanity

[hoops]

maybe post injury peyton manning has a colt mccoy arm but i have a hard time buying it pre injury...mannings all about timing and accuracy and ball placement anyways...his timings probably the best i've ever seen...impeccable

 

[Nawledge]

Bingo. When I bring something like this up, someone's always got to be the smartest guy in the room and point out that arm strength means nothing. That's great, except arm strength is an issue that is actively held against Matt Flynn. As you say, it's hard to believe that when I'm timing all these throws and Flynn's velocity is coming out far better on average than pre-surgery Peyton Manning's velocity, and even better than Ryan Tannehill's velocity as well. Nobody talks about either of those guys as having weaker arms, nobody talks about limiting which throws you'll have them make, etc. They do talk about that with Matt Flynn and I'm just trying to say, based on my research, that seems misguided.



Distance does affect average velocity, for sure. First off velocity during a throw has to be looked at as a curve, just like when the NFL Network measures speeds of players during their 40 yard dash. Their speed builds up and then comes down by the time they get done with the 40 yards. This is why a radar gun measurement on a football throw is going to show you different velocity than calculating the time it took the ball to get from point A to point B. You see radar gun results of guys throwing the out at the Combine, the gun results say something like 61 mph...but I don't think I've ever timed a throw of any kind of distance to where it had 60+ mph average speed.

On vertical plays where you throw the ball with touch, that's going to bleed off average velocity and get down into the low 40's. That's just a reality you live with. That said, I thought it was pretty impressive the throw Flynn made against the Patriots on a ball that went 111 feet distance and stuck right between the corner and safety for a touchdown to James Jones. That ball kept 49.0 mph average speed.

As for the differences in the offenses as it pertains to Flynn versus Manning...I don't think that matters much. Distance is distance. There are certain throws that I wouldn't time because they're more of a touch pass, but those touch passes tend to be short throws anyway and I refused to time anything below 50 feet.

The factor that has to be accounted for more than differences in the offense, is the weather. I noticed a difference in Matt Flynn's velocity between his 2010 games against the Patriots and Lions, and his 2011 game against the Lions in Week 17. In 2010 when he played the Patriots at Gilette Stadium, it was cold but there was no wind...wind was listed at 8 miles per hour which is barely a factor. In Week 17 of 2011 when Flynn hosted the Lions up in Green Bay, it was snowy which of course creates a wet ball situation, and winds were 20 miles per hour swirling all over the place. This affected ball speed.

I did up 15 throws from Peyton Manning's Week 1 game against the Houston Texans, which was played in a dome. One was a deep touch pass so I exclude it from any averages. How you treat the rest of the numbers is up to you. One common method is to toss out the lowest and highest, then average the rest. On that basis, Peyton averaged out to 45.5 miles per hour. On the same basis against the Patriots, Flynn averaged 50.3 miles per hour. So far for Tannehill, I'm getting somewhere around 49 miles per hour.

I never said I thought flynn had a weak arm but I have seen that opinion tossed around...I was just saying I don't think it matters if he throws 5mph faster than peyton manning. Flynn has sat the bench for a long time (behind russell in college and rodgers in nfl) and ill be honest, he scares me...I don't want AJ Feely pt 2 to happen to us.

 

[ckparrothead]

maybe post injury peyton manning has a colt mccoy arm but i have a hard time buying it pre injury...mannings all about timing and accuracy and ball placement anyways...his timings probably the best i've ever seen...impeccable

The tape doesn't lie. Pre-surgery, Week 1 of the 2010 season, in a dome, Peyton Manning's velocity profile was almost identical to Colt McCoy's Week 2 of 2011 velocity profile (also in a dome).

 

[ckparrothead]

I never said I thought flynn had a weak arm but I have seen that opinion tossed around...I was just saying I don't think it matters if he throws 5mph faster than peyton manning. Flynn has sat the bench for a long time (behind russell in college and rodgers in nfl) and ill be honest, he scares me...I don't want AJ Feely pt 2 to happen to us.

I don't think he's A.J. Feeley Part 2. I don't think there's a justification for that based on the skill set displayed. Even during the time when Feeley was supposed to have played well, he never had a good passer rating. That's the funny part about that whole trade. Feeley started 5 games and had a 75.4 passer rating. His yards per attempt were like 6.6 and he had 55.6% completion, 6 TDs and 5 INTs. I don't know if you could blame the offense because Donovan McNabb clearly passed the ball better. Feeley really only had ONE good game passing the football with a 91.4 passer rating, one mediocre game with a 81.8 passer rating, and three bad games with 53.7, 66.1 and 66.9 passer ratings. But he was 4-1 during the stretch because the team was good. They clearly reduced the things they did in the offense during the stretch, making him a game manager. The defense held three of the five opponents to 10 points or less. They only allowed 20 and 21 points in the other two games.

I'm not trying to pick on anyone I'm just trying to get the information out there because I think a lot of people remember the Feeley trade a little different than it was. That trade was a product of really low standards for young quarterbacks. There was this assumption that it's perfectly OK that the guy didn't play well because he was only in his second year and you should consider him awesome for not having blown chunks even worse and lost every game. Technically speaking A.J. Feeley wasn't even the 2nd string QB there. He was the 3rd string guy behind Koy Detmer.

There are already significant differences in Matt Flynn's story. For one thing right away you go to the simple fact that he's got a 90+ passer rating for the time he played in Green Bay. Second, that rating is even better for the two games he entered game week preparing and game planning as a starter. Third, if you actually watch those games and the way Mike McCarthy called situations and made decisions, they acted like Aaron Rodgers was still out there. They didn't coddle Matt Flynn. The game plans and specific plays were molded to Flynn's tastes a little, I think, but that didn't make the offense less aggressive or less pass oriented, less vertical, etc. It was still all those things. Last, even though Aaron Rodgers was in the middle of probbaly the best season I've ever seen a quarterback have, and even though the team's star wide receiver Greg Jennings sat the Week 17 game, somehow Flynn comes out of that game and that season with an even higher passer rating than Rodgers. Not saying he's better than Rodgers, but it's something that speaks well for Flynn.

A.J. Feeley is really not a justified comparison. It just isn't. The only people that compare the situation with Feeley are those that are for whatever reason already convinced Flynn will fail, and so the comparison comes out because they're looking for another example of a backup that ended up failing when he got his shot. Those are the only things Feeley and Flynn have in common, except that where Feeley's failure is a matter of historical record, Flynn's failure is merely theoretical.

I'd say Matt Flynn's situation reminds me of Matt Schaub's or Matt Hasselbeck's. Or Mark Brunell's.

 

[NY8123]

I don't think he's A.J. Feeley Part 2. I don't think there's a justification for that based on the skill set displayed. Even during the time when Feeley was supposed to have played well, he never had a good passer rating. That's the funny part about that whole trade. Feeley started 5 games and had a 75.4 passer rating. His yards per attempt were like 6.6 and he had 55.6% completion, 6 TDs and 5 INTs. I don't know if you could blame the offense because Donovan McNabb clearly passed the ball better. Feeley really only had ONE good game passing the football with a 91.4 passer rating, one mediocre game with a 81.8 passer rating, and three bad games with 53.7, 66.1 and 66.9 passer ratings. But he was 4-1 during the stretch because the team was good. They clearly reduced the things they did in the offense during the stretch, making him a game manager. The defense held three of the five opponents to 10 points or less. They only allowed 20 and 21 points in the other two games.

I'm not trying to pick on anyone I'm just trying to get the information out there because I think a lot of people remember the Feeley trade a little different than it was. That trade was a product of really low standards for young quarterbacks. There was this assumption that it's perfectly OK that the guy didn't play well because he was only in his second year and you should consider him awesome for not having blown chunks even worse and lost every game. Technically speaking A.J. Feeley wasn't even the 2nd string QB there. He was the 3rd string guy behind Koy Detmer.

There are already significant differences in Matt Flynn's story. For one thing right away you go to the simple fact that he's got a 90+ passer rating for the time he played in Green Bay. Second, that rating is even better for the two games he entered game week preparing and game planning as a starter. Third, if you actually watch those games and the way Mike McCarthy called situations and made decisions, they acted like Aaron Rodgers was still out there. They didn't coddle Matt Flynn. The game plans and specific plays were molded to Flynn's tastes a little, I think, but that didn't make the offense less aggressive or less pass oriented, less vertical, etc. It was still all those things. Last, even though Aaron Rodgers was in the middle of probbaly the best season I've ever seen a quarterback have, and even though the team's star wide receiver Greg Jennings sat the Week 17 game, somehow Flynn comes out of that game and that season with an even higher passer rating than Rodgers. Not saying he's better than Rodgers, but it's something that speaks well for Flynn.

A.J. Feeley is really not a justified comparison. It just isn't. The only people that compare the situation with Feeley are those that are for whatever reason already convinced Flynn will fail, and so the comparison comes out because they're looking for another example of a backup that ended up failing when he got his shot. Those are the only things Feeley and Flynn have in common, except that where Feeley's failure is a matter of historical record, Flynn's failure is merely theoretical.

I'd say Matt Flynn's situation reminds me of Matt Schaub's or Matt Hasselbeck's. Or Mark Brunell's.

Reminds me of another QB in the AFC that I will not name. lol.

 

[isaacjunk]

But what of the possibility that Peyton is throwing soft when he doesn't need to throw hard, and saves his juice for when he really needs it --this makes sense that an All-Pro qb would do this, as a slower ball is probably more catchable. The question is not average but maximum velocity.