Flynnsanity

[hoops]

I heard $5.75 million. Either way they don't even have enough money under the projected cap to sign their rookies at the moment. They need to clear more room.

Heading into the signing of Finley, they had a salary cap figure of $118,001,169 with a potential rollover from 2011 of $5,481,638. I expect they'll request the entire amount rolled over, meaning they have a net cap figure of $112,519,531.

You say the Finley deal involves a 2012 cap charge of $4.5 million. Let's take that at face value. That puts their cap figure at $117,019,531.

I've heard the salary cap, which was $120 million in 2011, is not actually going to rise...it will be $120.4 million in 2012. That means that they have about $3.4 million in cap room and need to raise about a million more just to sign rookies.

I've heard they plan to release Chad Clifton and restructure Donald Driver. I read an analysis of these moves that claims they can squeeze about $9 million out of the moves. Cutting them both outright would clear $11.4 million. But by keeping Driver they expect to not save quite that much, and for him to make about the same money as James Jones at $2.3 million.

So let's adjust. They would have $107,919,531 in cap charges after those moves...versus a $120,400,000 salary cap. This is approximately $12,480,469 in cap space.

Teams have the ability to "borrow" up to $2 million in salary cap space from future years. Last year they had the ability to "borrow" up to $3 million. If they do that, they could have $14,480,469 in salary cap space...

...which would JUST BARELY scrape together enough room for Flynn's $14.4 million franchise tender. That's one tight fit.

They would literally not be able to do a thing in free agency, not re-sign any of their own, not sign anyone new...and they would have NO room to sign draft picks.

I saw a rundown of their other salary cap numbers too. They're all really low, like $1 to $3 million, except Rodgers. None of them are players they can afford to give up. So if the Dolphins or anyone else stared them down on Flynn's compensation until it's time to sign the Draft picks...the Packers are forced to start cutting into the MEAT of the roster just to sign their own rookies...guys like A.J. Hawk, Desmond Bishop, Traemon Williams, Charles Woodson, etc.

In any scenario where the Packers try and squeeze a Flynn tag in...they would have to have an agreement in place with the Dolphins already, and in my opinion the Dolphins would be STUPID to do that. Flynn is already more likely to join your team than anyone else's team. You give up draft compensation for no reason. And guess what, by giving Flynn that $14.4 million GUARANTEED contract, in addition to giving up draft picks for him, you have just given Matt Flynn leverage over you. You may THINK that by having exclusive negotiating rights with him, you'll save money. That's not the case. By trading stuff for him and guaranteeing him $14.4 million in 2012, you just put pressure on your own team to get something done...or have all that effort be wasted and look impotent. It's the Paul Soliai thing all over again.

so bottom line you're saying the best thing miami can do is play hard ball and not offer up a pick in trade with the pack threatening to tag him...basically call their bluff...interesting

i still don't understand though why flynn in trade must possess that $14.14 mil in 2012...why you can't incorporate that into guaranteed money on a long term deal...i don't think either you or i ever thought flynn was gonna get less guaranteed loot in free agency than that $14 mil with whoever he signed with anyways...

 

[jim1]

bill polian thought matt flynn could be a starter in the league and yet he went in the 7th round and bill polians club took mike pollack, phillip wheeler, jacob tamme, marcus howard, tom santi, steve justice, mike hart, pierre garcon, and jamey richard all ahead of matt flynn?

he picked 3 god damn centers, before he thought matt flynn would be a better option even as a backup qb to peyton? 2 tight ends, and mike freakin hart?

peyton manning is one thing to find although it wasnt exactly finding peyton is was peyton falling into their laps, but the only other qb of any relevance at all polian is responsible for is kerry collins. polian can't sit there and give flynn a big rah rah rah now, when in 08 208 players went ahead of flynn. polian had 9 draft choices that year, and matt flynn wasn't good enough to be taken with at least 8 of them. I don't buy this crap from bill polian. bill polians best signing was probably bruce smith. best work was probably the hand he played in 4 straight superbowls albeit all of them loses.

I'm not against signing flynn, but I pray at lengths end we dont give him a ryan fitzpatrick type deal... he has proven very little to warrant such a contract.

Thank you for the great post, and for saving me the trouble of pointing out the painfully obvious- if Polian liked Flynn so damned much he would have drafted the kid somewhere in the first six rounds of the draft- it's called puting your money, and draft picks, where your mouth is. Instead, Polian went years with crappy QB backups and when the one sure player that he did draft, Peyton Manning went down, the whole team imploded- mainly because the team, built by years and years of drafts under Polian, sucked *** when Peyton Manning wasn't around to carry them.

Great job, master draftsman Polian. Oh, and guess what- you're fired. I guess you should have drafted Flynn as a competent backup QB to Manning when you had every chance in the world of doing so, even for as little as a 6th round pick. But, of course, you didn't- leaving yourself with shi**y back up QBs that led a shi**y team in the absence of Manning to a disgrace of a season.

Enjoy your early, forced retirement- you earned it. I guess you should have drafted Matt Flynn with at least a bottom of the barrel draft pick if you were such a big fan, don't you think? Maybe if you drafted him and did a better job of building a team around Manning you'd still have a job. But you didn't, and you don't. One wonders.

 

[Vaark]

Thank you for the great post, and for saving me the trouble of pointing out the painfully obvious- if Polian liked Flynn so damned much he would have drafted the kid somewhere in the first six rounds of the draft- it's called puting your money, and draft picks, where your mouth is. Instead, Polian went years with crappy QB backups and when the one sure player that he did draft, Peyton Manning went down, the whole team imploded- mainly because the team, built by years and years of drafts under Polian, sucked *** when Peyton Manning wasn't around to carry them.

Great job, master draftsman Polian. Oh, and guess what- you're fired. I guess you should have drafted Flynn as a competent backup QB to Manning when you had every chance in the world of doing so, even for as little as a 6th round pick. But, of course, you didn't- leaving yourself with shi**y back up QBs that led a shi**y team in the absence of Manning to a disgrace of a season.

Enjoy your early, forced retirement- you earned it. I guess you should have drafted Matt Flynn with at least a bottom of the barrel draft pick if you were such a big fan, don't you think? Maybe if you drafted him and did a better job of building a team around Manning you'd still have a job. But you didn't, and you don't. One wonders.

These days I take what Polian has to say with a grain of salt, including these insider reports on Peyton's recovery and throwing prowess. The distinct vibes I'm getting is that he's butt-hurt that Irsay put a stop to his nepotism by pink-slipping his inept son and him; hence his agenda involves looking for angles to generate as much pressure and negative publicity on the Colts as possible. As far as the Flynn revisionist history goes, (remember he drafted ****ing Curtis Painter), IMO, he's attempting to increase demand by shrinking the field of buyers to drive up Peyton's price or something of that nature.

Yes, there have been more than a few successes of late round or UFA QBs, but empirically from the huge universal sampling size, when a guy is drafted in the 7th round after each team has had probably 3 or more realistic opportunities to pass him by, the successes are anomalies and it's for a reason.

 

[Krush]

Why would anyone give matt Flynn 14 Mil when flacco been doing it for 3 years and has accomplished more.

 

[ckparrothead]

I'm going to go ahead and go on record that Peyton Manning's arm strength pre-surgery was not at Matt Flynn's level. It was at Colt McCoy's level.

Greg Cosell put forth the idea that Matt Flynn's arm strength isn't enough to where he'd have him throw the 18 to 22 yard dig. If that's the case, you wouldn't have Peyton Manning doing it either. I regularly got average velocities for Flynn's throws that were 51 and 52 miles per hour. That was probably his median. I also got 54 and 56 mph throws. His lowest in functional range (i.e. not the deep touch vertical) was around 48 miles per hour.

Peyton Manning's FASTEST ball pre-surgery was just under 48 miles per hour. His average was around 45 or 46 miles per hour.

Not saying Flynn is a better QB. I have no idea where Peyton's rehab is. But strictly on arm strength, Flynn's arm is significantly better than Peyton's was even pre-surgery. Colt McCoy's arm times out at the same level as Peyton Manning's pre-surgery arm.

 

[CANDolphan]

Sure. I'd like to see what percentage of the time Rodgers' statistics were blown up because his RB took a flip pass and turned it into an 80 yard TD and how often blown tackles and lousy coverage contributed to good plays turning into medium to long TDs. Of course Rodgers has benefitted in the past from his receivers really aiding the cause and opposing defenses sucking, but he has a body of work that shows how often his arm, feet and mind result in great plays and outstanding QB production. Not all YAC are created equally- Flynn benefitted in that Lions game mightily from factors other than his own good play.

All you have to do is watch Rodgers play QB and throw the ball to know that he's twice the QB that Flynn will ever be. If stats were the end all and be all of rating a player, and small amounts of statistics at that, then Flynn's QBR is higher than Rodgers' for all I know, because of that one game. Does that mean that he's a better Quarterback than Rodgers? Of course not. Stats sometimes lie. They measure finite results, not the quality behind those results or mitigating circumstances.

There are different ways for a QB to accumulate YAC- sometimes it's a result of great throws, leading a receiver to where they want to be to run with the rock after the catch, sometimes a quick dump off turns in to a huge play- kudos to the receiver. Sometimes the opposing defense and especially their secondary play like crap and fail to make plays, tackle after the reception, etc. And that leads to inflated stats. I have a feeling, at least from what I saw, that Flynn's YAC that are reflected in his big numbers against the Lions are more due to his receivers making great plays and the Lions secondary sucking arse. It doesn't mean by any means that Flynn didn't play a very good game, but again- color me unimpressed, especially as per the notion that Flynn is now Mr. Wonderful.

No offense there Jim but you genuinely have no idea what you're talking about when you say things like "Look at Rodgers throw the ball and then look at Flynn you can tell Rodgers is twice the quarterback"

Your knowledge throughout this thread has proven to be next to nil (You have no understanding of the market for quarterbacks, nor of the franchise tag) Flynn will be 8 million at year, not 14. Flynn will not be tagged. He will not cost a 2nd round pick. Watching Flynn throw the ball vs watching Rodgers throw the ball is not apples and oranges.

 

[CANDolphan]

Also, Tom Brady is pretty much the poster boy for throwing mechanics. He doesn't have a rocket for an arm, he simply has the best mechanic of any quarterback in the league. He doesn't have the natural cannon of Vick, Stafford, or Flacco

 

[ckparrothead]

Used software to break down average velocity between Tannehill and Flynn. Flynn's velocity in the NE game was better. Averaged about 50 mph while Tannehill goes about 48 mph. Both are better than Peyton's pre-surgery 2010 of 45 mph.

 

[fakespike]

I'm going to go ahead and go on record that Peyton Manning's arm strength pre-surgery was not at Matt Flynn's level. It was at Colt McCoy's level.

Greg Cosell put forth the idea that Matt Flynn's arm strength isn't enough to where he'd have him throw the 18 to 22 yard dig. If that's the case, you wouldn't have Peyton Manning doing it either. I regularly got average velocities for Flynn's throws that were 51 and 52 miles per hour. That was probably his median. I also got 54 and 56 mph throws. His lowest in functional range (i.e. not the deep touch vertical) was around 48 miles per hour.

Peyton Manning's FASTEST ball pre-surgery was just under 48 miles per hour. His average was around 45 or 46 miles per hour.

Not saying Flynn is a better QB. I have no idea where Peyton's rehab is. But strictly on arm strength, Flynn's arm is significantly better than Peyton's was even pre-surgery. Colt McCoy's arm times out at the same level as Peyton Manning's pre-surgery arm.

and John Beck was among the top QBs at the 2007 combine with a 62mph radar speed.

 

[jmo543]

Does anyone know what Matt Moore's velocity is? What do the topo tier QBs average also? Thanks

 

[ckparrothead]

and John Beck was among the top QBs at the 2007 combine with a 62mph radar speed.

It's interesting that you think you've actually got a point here.

 

[Nawledge]

Used software to break down average velocity between Tannehill and Flynn. Flynn's velocity in the NE game was better. Averaged about 50 mph while Tannehill goes about 48 mph. Both are better than Peyton's pre-surgery 2010 of 45 mph.

And Henne probably throws the ball 90mph, whats your point?

 

[Nawledge]

we are all witnesses that arm strength means jack sh*t if your not accurate...ill take Mannings accuracy with a slightly weaker arm and his track record over a 7th round backup who played 2 meaningless games who throws the ball roughly 2-5 mph faster.

 

[TheWalrus]

we are all witnesses that arm strength means jack sh*t if your not accurate...ill take Mannings accuracy with a slightly weaker arm and his track record over a 7th round backup who played 2 meaningless games who throws the ball roughly 2-5 mph faster.

That would appear to be CK's point, in a way. People want to make Flynn's arm strength a negative. But it's rather hard to do that credibly if he's throwing the ball harder on average than people who are not considered to have "below average" arm strength. Let's make the argument about valid things, if we can.

The only caveat I'd add -- though given the fact that I didn't do the calculations I don't know whether it's proper to add -- is that the average distances of throws would be a factor in how hard a ball is thrown. Manning throws a lot of relatively short passes, which you obviously don't throw as hard as deeper passes. The Green Bay offense Flynn played in, despite having the West Coast label, is a down field passing attack, necessitating more aggressive throwing. Though of course then you add the caveat to that which is that smart coaches ask their players to do what they do well, which gives the design of the offense a sort of chicken and the egg quality.

 

[ckparrothead]

That would appear to be CK's point, in a way. People want to make Flynn's arm strength a negative. But it's rather hard to do that credibly if he's throwing the ball harder on average than people who are not considered to have "below average" arm strength. Let's make the argument about valid things, if we can.

Bingo. When I bring something like this up, someone's always got to be the smartest guy in the room and point out that arm strength means nothing. That's great, except arm strength is an issue that is actively held against Matt Flynn. As you say, it's hard to believe that when I'm timing all these throws and Flynn's velocity is coming out far better on average than pre-surgery Peyton Manning's velocity, and even better than Ryan Tannehill's velocity as well. Nobody talks about either of those guys as having weaker arms, nobody talks about limiting which throws you'll have them make, etc. They do talk about that with Matt Flynn and I'm just trying to say, based on my research, that seems misguided.

The only caveat I'd add -- though given the fact that I didn't do the calculations I don't know whether it's proper to add -- is that the average distances of throws would be a factor in how hard a ball is thrown. Manning throws a lot of relatively short passes, which you obviously don't throw as hard as deeper passes. The Green Bay offense Flynn played in, despite having the West Coast label, is a down field passing attack, necessitating more aggressive throwing. Though of course then you add the caveat to that which is that smart coaches ask their players to do what they do well, which gives the design of the offense a sort of chicken and the egg quality.

Distance does affect average velocity, for sure. First off velocity during a throw has to be looked at as a curve, just like when the NFL Network measures speeds of players during their 40 yard dash. Their speed builds up and then comes down by the time they get done with the 40 yards. This is why a radar gun measurement on a football throw is going to show you different velocity than calculating the time it took the ball to get from point A to point B. You see radar gun results of guys throwing the out at the Combine, the gun results say something like 61 mph...but I don't think I've ever timed a throw of any kind of distance to where it had 60+ mph average speed.

On vertical plays where you throw the ball with touch, that's going to bleed off average velocity and get down into the low 40's. That's just a reality you live with. That said, I thought it was pretty impressive the throw Flynn made against the Patriots on a ball that went 111 feet distance and stuck right between the corner and safety for a touchdown to James Jones. That ball kept 49.0 mph average speed.

As for the differences in the offenses as it pertains to Flynn versus Manning...I don't think that matters much. Distance is distance. There are certain throws that I wouldn't time because they're more of a touch pass, but those touch passes tend to be short throws anyway and I refused to time anything below 50 feet.

The factor that has to be accounted for more than differences in the offense, is the weather. I noticed a difference in Matt Flynn's velocity between his 2010 games against the Patriots and Lions, and his 2011 game against the Lions in Week 17. In 2010 when he played the Patriots at Gilette Stadium, it was cold but there was no wind...wind was listed at 8 miles per hour which is barely a factor. In Week 17 of 2011 when Flynn hosted the Lions up in Green Bay, it was snowy which of course creates a wet ball situation, and winds were 20 miles per hour swirling all over the place. This affected ball speed.

I did up 15 throws from Peyton Manning's Week 1 game against the Houston Texans, which was played in a dome. One was a deep touch pass so I exclude it from any averages. How you treat the rest of the numbers is up to you. One common method is to toss out the lowest and highest, then average the rest. On that basis, Peyton averaged out to 45.5 miles per hour. On the same basis against the Patriots, Flynn averaged 50.3 miles per hour. So far for Tannehill, I'm getting somewhere around 49 miles per hour.