Boys and girls, this is a website for bettors which means their criteria for picking teams is a little different. They're looking for "value" on their bets, so they're going to be high on teams likely to have long odds but a realistic chance of upsetting the pundits.
They're reasoning isn't all that far out of line though -- and probably better than most of the media "gurus" who simply place teams based on last year or on their reputations. I think their idea is that the AFCE teams are going to beat up on each other, and so the division will be much tighter than last year.
They think the Pats will "come back to the pack" in the AFCE. I think most thoughtful analysts agree with that because of the players and coaches NE lost since last season. They may win the AFCE but not dominate it or the league.
They think that the Jets will also take a step back, falling to only 9 wins. They're probably concerned about Pennington and his ability to play a full season. I suspect that they probably didn't like the way Jets backed into the playoffs courtesy of the Bills' let down in their last game.
Like many forecasters, these guys really like the Bills -- except for QB. As a Bills fan (like you couldn't tell), I'm less concerned about QB and more concerned about the o-line which is the weakest link on this team. There are 2 new starters on the oline: Gandy and Anderson. If this unit gets its legs under it and opens holes for Willis, this Bills team will run wild because the D is very good and the ST define "special"!
I think that they've rated Miami so low because they aren't enamored, as Miami fans are, of the coaching staff. Most rookie HCs in the NFL struggle early in their first season, even if they've been NFL coordinators, and I think they share the general skepticism about the ability of a big-time college coach transitioning into the NFL. I think that they're also unimpressed with Miami's offense. Miami's real offensive problem is its oline not its QBs, but talk of alternating QBs just doesn't inspire confidence. I think Miami should be at least as good as last year, and probably won't be swept by the entire AFCE; they'll take one from the Jets at least.