🏈 Greed is Good: Take(away) more than Give(away)

[AquaHawk]

Miami will establish an identity in 2023: A slightly more diverse and efficient McDaniel offense, playing complementary football with a greedy/stingy Fangio defense. This OREO cookie of a combination will unlock a very tough Dolphins team.

POSITIVE TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL is one way to gauge this balance and an area of potential net new game points for Miami in 2023.

An independent analyst study of PFR data suggested each NFL
turnover gained/lost accounted for +/- 3.5 points and 47 yards of field position.

Based on that premise, a basic calculation shows Miami‘s overall point differential last year swung negative 32-points with the team ”surrendering” 329 yards of potential field position. You’ll recall Miami finished last year with an overall -2 point differential, so even if Miami broke-even on turnovers, the impact to W/L would have been meaningful.

79% of teams in the playoffs last year had a positive turnover differential. The three that didn’t: Tampa Bay (horrible Division), Miami, and interestingly, Kansas City.

What was the root cause of Miami’s negative turnover differential?

In 2022, Miami’s Offense and Defense rarely played complementary football.

• The Offense infrequently fumbled, but interceptions were a problem—especially in the 2nd half of the season due to Tua’s injuries and less than stellar B/U QB play.
• The Offense, historically, has not protected the ball well, which puts an inordinate amount of pressure on the Defense to respond. Having Tua’s efficiency for a full season would make a big difference.
• The Defense was near bottom of the league in total takeaways, an area strength the prior two seasons. Injuries to key personnel played an important part of this performance, as well as scheme fatigue.

Year	Takeaway Interception	Takeaway Fumble	Takeaway Total	Giveaway Interception	Giveaway Fumble	Giveaway Total	Turnover Differential
2022	8 (#29)	6 (#29)	14	15 (#10)	6 (#29)	21	-7 (#28)
2021			26			26	0 (#17)
2020			25			16	+9 (#3)
2019			16			26	-10 (#27)

Pro Football Reference – Code and Football

Posts about Pro Football Reference written by foodnearsnellville

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[cullenbigcstill]

Great post bro, thanks for sharing.

It's one of those things that seems to come some season and drought in other seasons.

However, I'd expect to see an uptick in turnovers with a brilliant coach in Fangio. The core pieces are there, and I'd expect it may take a lil while to gel, but by end of the season we should be pretty tough.

Plus, playing more zone coverage, there will be more opportunities for turnovers forcing long drives by opponents to score.

 

[Ray R]

Miami will establish an identity in 2023: A slightly more diverse and efficient McDaniel offense, playing complementary football with a greedy/stingy Fangio defense. This OREO cookie of a combination will unlock a very tough Dolphins team.

POSITIVE TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL is one way to gauge this balance and an area of potential net new game points for Miami in 2023.

An independent analyst study of PFR data suggested each NFL
turnover gained/lost accounted for +/- 3.5 points and 47 yards of field position.

Based on that premise, a basic calculation shows Miami‘s overall point differential last year swung negative 32-points with the team ”surrendering” 329 yards of potential field position. You’ll recall Miami finished last year with an overall -2 point differential, so even if Miami broke-even on turnovers, the impact to W/L would have been meaningful.

79% of teams in the playoffs last year had a positive turnover differential. The three that didn’t: Tampa Bay (horrible Division), Miami, and interestingly, Kansas City.

What was the root cause of Miami’s negative turnover differential?

In 2022, Miami’s Offense and Defense rarely played complementary football.

• The Offense infrequently fumbled, but interceptions were a problem—especially in the 2nd half of the season due to Tua’s injuries and less than stellar B/U QB play.
• The Offense, historically, has not protected the ball well, which puts an inordinate amount of pressure on the Defense to respond. Having Tua’s efficiency for a full season would make a big difference.
• The Defense was near bottom of the league in total takeaways, an area strength the prior two seasons. Injuries to key personnel played an important part of this performance, as well as scheme fatigue.

Year	Takeaway Interception	Takeaway Fumble	Takeaway Total	Giveaway Interception	Giveaway Fumble	Giveaway Total	Turnover Differential
2022	8 (#29)	6 (#29)	14	15 (#10)	6 (#29)	21	-7 (#28)
2021			26			26	0 (#17)
2020			25			16	+9 (#3)
2019			16			26	-10 (#27)

Pro Football Reference – Code and Football

Posts about Pro Football Reference written by foodnearsnellville

codeandfootball.wordpress.com

So, we are getting better, but we are still bad at turnovers? - LOL

 

[AquaHawk]

So, we are getting better, but we are still bad at turnovers? - LOL

Yes, Miami is getting better in many areas.
Turnover differential is not—yet—one of them, and it has cost the team points.
“McDangio“ will fix the problem.

 

[NBP81]

Yes, Miami is getting better in many areas.
Turnover differential is not—yet—one of them, and it has cost the team points.
“McDangio“ will fix the problem.

The problem with turnovers is its very difficult to separate luck from skill with such limited sample size, there's literally no model that I know of that can predict them very well. There are a **** ton of opportunities and very little occurrences relatively. With 17 games seasons and roster movements in between, its really hard to figure when its actually skill vs luck.

I literally said the Fins D wasn't as good as people thought after last season stating that they were very likely to take a dip in turnovers this season, and that outside of that, the D was pretty much mediocre everywhere else. Most robust NFL predictive models don't put much weight in turnovers metrics for that very reason...

Keep in mind, the data I was using when researching this went up to 2018, things might have changed since but I'd be surprised.

 

[claytonduper]

I would settle for a much higher percentage of 3rd down stops. That may be more important then turnovers as the opportunity to stop the other offense during an entire game could be 12+ times.

 

[rickd13]

The problem with turnovers is its very difficult to separate luck from skill with such limited sample size, there's literally no model that I know of that can predict them very well. There are a **** ton of opportunities and very little occurrences relatively. With 17 games seasons and roster movements in between, its really hard to figure when its actually skill vs luck.

I literally said the Fins D wasn't as good as people thought after last season stating that they were very likely to take a dip in turnovers this season, and that outside of that, the D was pretty much mediocre everywhere else. Most robust NFL predictive models don't put much weight in turnovers metrics for that very reason...

Keep in mind, the data I was using when researching this went up to 2018, things might have changed since but I'd be surprised.

That’s why there is so much fluctuation year to year in defensive rankings. Turnovers are unpredictable. That’s why building a great offense makes more sense in this era. Offense is much more sustainable.

 

[royalshank]

The problem with turnovers is its very difficult to separate luck from skill with such limited sample size, there's literally no model that I know of that can predict them very well. There are a **** ton of opportunities and very little occurrences relatively. With 17 games seasons and roster movements in between, its really hard to figure when its actually skill vs luck.

I literally said the Fins D wasn't as good as people thought after last season stating that they were very likely to take a dip in turnovers this season, and that outside of that, the D was pretty much mediocre everywhere else. Most robust NFL predictive models don't put much weight in turnovers metrics for that very reason...

Keep in mind, the data I was using when researching this went up to 2018, things might have changed since but I'd be surprised.

There is one model you can follow which will virtually guarantee you rarely, if ever fumble. New England employed it successfully for about 10 seasons and fumbled at a rate 3 standard deviations from the mean lower than everyone else - which is statistically impossible really. It’s called the “deflate the football “ model. We need to copy that and our turnover differential will skyrocket!!!

 

[royalshank]

That’s why there is so much fluctuation year to year in defensive rankings. Turnovers are unpredictable. That’s why building a great offense makes more sense in this era. Offense is much more sustainable.

Crazy that the Chefs won the SB w a negative TO differential.

 

[AquaHawk]

The problem with turnovers is its very difficult to separate luck from skill with such limited sample size, there's literally no model that I know of that can predict them very well. There are a **** ton of opportunities and very little occurrences relatively. With 17 games seasons and roster movements in between, its really hard to figure when its actually skill vs luck.

I literally said the Fins D wasn't as good as people thought after last season stating that they were very likely to take a dip in turnovers this season, and that outside of that, the D was pretty much mediocre everywhere else. Most robust NFL predictive models don't put much weight in turnovers metrics for that very reason...

Keep in mind, the data I was using when researching this went up to 2018, things might have changed since but I'd be surprised.

That’s why there is so much fluctuation year to year in defensive rankings. Turnovers are unpredictable. That’s why building a great offense makes more sense in this era. Offense is much more sustainable.

Agreed transactional turnovers are unpredictable skill & luck variables, and Y/Y can fluctuate rankings.

The accumulation of turnovers—those given/taken—do appear to have some correlation to winning % over time. Since 2012, the NFL has played ~5,700 regular season games. During that time, 80% of the top ten teams with negative turnover differential have a 10-year losing record.

 

[NBP81]

Agreed transactional turnovers are unpredictable skill & luck variables, and Y/Y can fluctuate rankings.

The accumulation of turnovers—those given/taken—do appear to have some correlation to winning % over time. Since 2012, the NFL has played ~5,700 regular season games. During that time, 80% of the top ten teams with negative turnover differential have a 10-year losing record.

No one will ever deny that winning the turnover battle doesn't correlate to wins. But if you cant separate skill from luck, or at most do so on a very limited basis, I see limited value in that information.

 

[royalshank]

No one will ever deny that winning the turnover battle doesn't correlate to wins. But if you cant separate skill from luck, or at most do so on a very limited basis, I see limited value in that information.

It’s so random. I think the article hits on something when it says “scheme fatigue”. Perhaps running the same D for too long generates fewer TOs over time ? IDK but our scheme “feels” tired

 

[AquaHawk]

No one will ever deny that winning the turnover battle doesn't correlate to wins. But if you cant separate skill from luck, or at most do so on a very limited basis, I see limited value in that information.

Ahh, if only luck could be accurately predicted!

Teams obviously improve chance of turnover luck with skilled players and coaches, and effective schemes.

The data shows a quantitative +/- gain/loss associated with an NFL average turnover.

An imperfect metric, nonetheless.

 

[Sirspud]

The problem with turnovers is its very difficult to separate luck from skill with such limited sample size, there's literally no model that I know of that can predict them very well. There are a **** ton of opportunities and very little occurrences relatively. With 17 games seasons and roster movements in between, its really hard to figure when its actually skill vs luck.

I literally said the Fins D wasn't as good as people thought after last season stating that they were very likely to take a dip in turnovers this season, and that outside of that, the D was pretty much mediocre everywhere else. Most robust NFL predictive models don't put much weight in turnovers metrics for that very reason...

Keep in mind, the data I was using when researching this went up to 2018, things might have changed since but I'd be surprised.

We had a huge amount of luck getting to face some really awful QB's in 2020 and 2021. The backup QB's we were lucky enough to face in 2022 ended up better than the guys they replaced, for the most part.

 

[Ray R]

Yes, Miami is getting better in many areas.
Turnover differential is not—yet—one of them, and it has cost the team points.
“McDangio“ will fix the problem.

LOL