Miami will establish an identity in 2023: A slightly more diverse and efficient McDaniel offense, playing complementary football with a greedy/stingy Fangio defense. This OREO cookie of a combination will unlock a very tough Dolphins team.
POSITIVE TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL is one way to gauge this balance and an area of potential net new game points for Miami in 2023.
An independent analyst study of PFR data suggested each NFL
turnover gained/lost accounted for +/- 3.5 points and 47 yards of field position.
Based on that premise, a basic calculation shows Miamiās overall point differential last year swung negative 32-points with the team āsurrenderingā 329 yards of potential field position. Youāll recall Miami finished last year with an overall -2 point differential, so even if Miami broke-even on turnovers, the impact to W/L would have been meaningful.
79% of teams in the playoffs last year had a positive turnover differential. The three that didnāt: Tampa Bay (horrible Division), Miami, and interestingly, Kansas City.
What was the root cause of Miamiās negative turnover differential?
In 2022, Miamiās Offense and Defense rarely played complementary football.
POSITIVE TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL is one way to gauge this balance and an area of potential net new game points for Miami in 2023.
An independent analyst study of PFR data suggested each NFL
turnover gained/lost accounted for +/- 3.5 points and 47 yards of field position.
Based on that premise, a basic calculation shows Miamiās overall point differential last year swung negative 32-points with the team āsurrenderingā 329 yards of potential field position. Youāll recall Miami finished last year with an overall -2 point differential, so even if Miami broke-even on turnovers, the impact to W/L would have been meaningful.
79% of teams in the playoffs last year had a positive turnover differential. The three that didnāt: Tampa Bay (horrible Division), Miami, and interestingly, Kansas City.
What was the root cause of Miamiās negative turnover differential?
In 2022, Miamiās Offense and Defense rarely played complementary football.
- The Offense infrequently fumbled, but interceptions were a problemāespecially in the 2nd half of the season due to Tuaās injuries and less than stellar B/U QB play.
- The Offense, historically, has not protected the ball well, which puts an inordinate amount of pressure on the Defense to respond. Having Tuaās efficiency for a full season would make a big difference.
- The Defense was near bottom of the league in total takeaways, an area strength the prior two seasons. Injuries to key personnel played an important part of this performance, as well as scheme fatigue.
Year | Takeaway Interception | Takeaway Fumble | Takeaway Total | Giveaway Interception | Giveaway Fumble | Giveaway Total | Turnover Differential |
2022 | 8 (#29) | 6 (#29) | 14 | 15 (#10) | 6 (#29) | 21 | -7 (#28) |
2021 | 26 | 26 | 0 (#17) | ||||
2020 | 25 | 16 | +9 (#3) | ||||
2019 | 16 | 26 | -10 (#27) |
Pro Football Reference ā Code and Football
Posts about Pro Football Reference written by foodnearsnellville
codeandfootball.wordpress.com
Last edited: