Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year? | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year?

Using this stat to predict wins by averaging (or saying that you would have to have an average of 10 or better to indicate you are playing "playoff caliber" football sure doesn't seem to work very well. Our average of all the scores for our 14 games is a prediction of 7.86 wins for the season. I'm guessing that we will have at least 9 wins but more importantly if we do make the playoffs and the 10 wins that the statistic average for the season will not catch up.

Secondly, if you want to use a time-series to see if we have improved since the first half of the season and use this statistic you will see that for the last 4 weeks in a row we have been above the average for the first 8 weeks (7.55 predicted wins). One of the standard rules for spotting a shift in a process is a "run" of 5 or more points either above or below the average. We are on the verge of statistically saying that we are improved over the first half of the season if we have another statistic above 7.55 for this week's game. I am not sure I think this is a good model, but if you accept it as a measure of how good a team is then those of us who see improvement will be able have statistical justification for our opinion as well.
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I enjoy these threads. I don't know why people feel the need to attack the poster. It encourages posters to take a deeper look at how games are won and lost. I find that immensely more enjoyable than the weekly what are we wearing or who's officiating our game threads.
 
Regulas, not a fan of what we're wearing or who the ref is. I just think that if you watch and rewatch the games it tells you all you need to know. But, if you enjoy the stats I don't have a problem at all. Enjoy!
 
Regulus said:
I enjoy these threads. I don't know why people feel the need to attack the poster. It encourages posters to take a deeper look at how games are won and lost. I find that immensely more enjoyable than the weekly what are we wearing or who's officiating our game threads.
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Well done statistical analysis is great. Inept analysis done by a total fraud is not.
 
MadDog 88 said:
Curious why you don't compare Points Per Drive (for and against) and make your comparison with that information? That's a much clearer reflection of how the entire team is functioning. Labeling this as "Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year" than trying to sell that an individual stat (YPA) is the stat most closely associated with winning is questionable. YPA can be associated with a QBs performance but it is subjective and prone to confirmation bias.

EDIT: Though the below information is subjective I think it gives a clearer picture of what your eyes are telling you.

Points Per Drive Offense:

2012 - 1.51
2013 - 1.78

Points Per Drive Defense:

2012 - 1.62
2013 - 1.75
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I should've been more clear in the original post that what I'm looking at here is improvement within this season, rather than between this season and last.

Points per drive differential is strongly correlated with winning, but the correlation is driven almost entirely by the variation in points differential -- which essentially is winning -- rather than by the variation in drives differential. The amount of variation in points for and against across the league greatly exceeds the amount of variation in drives for and against, and so what you're left with, in terms of explaining the strength of the correlation with wins, is something akin to "we score more points than our opponents."
 
tazthenomad said:
Using this stat to predict wins by averaging (or saying that you would have to have an average of 10 or better to indicate you are playing "playoff caliber" football sure doesn't seem to work very well. Our average of all the scores for our 14 games is a prediction of 7.86 wins for the season. I'm guessing that we will have at least 9 wins but more importantly if we do make the playoffs and the 10 wins that the statistic average for the season will not catch up.
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Right. The 10 wins was only a heuristic. Also keep in mind that the average number of estimated wins for the season can of course increase during the last two games. Probably not substantially, however.

Secondly, if you want to use a time-series to see if we have improved since the first half of the season and use this statistic you will see that for the last 4 weeks in a row we have been above the average for the first 8 weeks (7.55 predicted wins). One of the standard rules for spotting a shift in a process is a "run" of 5 or more points either above or below the average. We are on the verge of statistically saying that we are improved over the first half of the season if we have another statistic above 7.55 for this week's game. I am not sure I think this is a good model, but if you accept it as a measure of how good a team is then those of us who see improvement will be able have statistical justification for our opinion as well.
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I agree that it looks like we're in the middle of an upward trend, which is attributable to the following factors:

1) Better offensive net YPA.
2) Better offensive interception rate.
3) Better offensive yards per carry.
4) Very few yards lost per play due to penalties.

So it seems like the team's overall efficiency and ball protection on offense have been the prime movers in what we're seeing in the past few games. The team has also suffered even fewer yards per play on penalties than was typical for it previously. What it looks like to me is an offense that's starting to gel, amidst a team overall that's very well-disciplined and plays well against the pass.
 
They have improved, no question.

The secondary with Grimes is better than it has been for years. The emergence of Olivier Vernon. When was the last time we spoke about our inability to defend TE's ? That'll be because of the drafting of Jordan, who whilst not being the immediate pass rushing threat, has become a big member of the defense covering the big men. We haven't been as stout against the run as previous but we have that in us. Our LB play isn't as good as it could be but is serviceable at this point.

On offense, we've seen the emergence of Clay, who is a genuine playmaker. Hartline is as steady as ever. Wallace has been fine all year IMO. Early doors, whilst not contributing significantly was creating space for others. Now, he's contributing as well. Gibson was a big success in the slot and since we've seen the growth of Matthews, who for me looks another possible playmaker in the making.

The OL has got better since the Incognito/Martin saga as well and is affording us time.

Lastly, Tannehill. The sense of optimism around Miami is because of this guy. The other improvements listed are nice aspects but the truth is without a real QB, they don't matter. Tannehill is the centre of it all. He's making the rest of the team look better. His growth is why people feel good about this team and where it could end up. He means a hell of a lot and the future could be sparkling if his growth continues. The play of this young QB has made a largely irrelevant franchise a Play Off contender. We know how important they are but it's important to note that Tannehill could literally transform this franchise from irrelevant to a perennial contender. A Play Off team year in, year out. His play has the potential to mask so many weaknesses on this team and that's why we have certainly improved.

I'm being absolutely serious here. With a good draft next year and Miami could truthfully be a SB contender. Imagine if Tannehill's play continues to grow. Vernon and Wake become the big dual threat. Jordan becomes a frightening prospect as a hybrid LB/pass rushing threat. We have the WR group. We have the potentially stout interior line. We have the secondary. The pieces are largely in place. Draft a stud OT and sort the OL out. I'd like a bona fide #1 WR as well but you can't have everything. I'd like a prototypical TE and of course we need a powerback also. The point being made is that it's blatantly clear how much we've improved because of where we currently are. Another couple of complimentary pieces and the whole NFL will learn pretty damn fast how much this franchise has improved. The person we can all thank for that is likely to be one Ryan Tannehill.
 
Heuristics are prone to errors. Are you factoring the weather, field condition, injuries, coaching, tendancies, the frame of mind of players who are not happy with their contract...that stuff is very important. My goodness, now I'm playing your game! I saw some posters that seem to enjoy getting into your type of factoids. As long as some people like it you have every right to post what you please. This is me saying I'm sorry. This is about as sorry I can get! I hope you watch Curb with Larry David otherwise you won't get what I just said. Having said that, at the end of the day, it is what it is! Now get off Tannehills' butt. The guy is the best QB we've has since Moses wore short pants!
 
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I didn't really have a problem with the original post. The numbers are what the numbers are... The attempt to draw conclusions from a tiny sample is misguided but harmless.

It was the (for the millionth time) attempt to pin the losses on Tannehill via the YPA stat that bugs me. YPA is a team stat, no matter what this knucklehead thinks. To consider it a Tannehill-only stat, you have to believe the following:

1. All sacks are Tannehill's fault
2. All Dropped passes are Tannehill's fault
3. All other incomplete passes are Tannehill's fault (throw aways, defended passes, tipped at the LOS, and missed by the QB)
4. All INTs are Tannehill's fault
5. All YAC are due solely to Tannehill
6. All down and distance situations (e.g. passes from the 1 yard line) are the sole responsibility of Tannehill
7. All play calling is by Tannehill
8. Offensive philosophy is Tannehill's decision

All of these (and probably more) impact the YPA of the TEAM. Pinning the number on Tannehill in a lame attempt to brand him "average" (either in previous games or current games) in thousands of posts is F'n irritating.

Worst of all is the blatant ignoring of reality. Many tried to explain the causes for the offense's struggles early in the season as largely due to the OL. He argued that the OL was no worse than average. The team makes changes on the OL (some forced, some by choice) and the offense improves. You'd think that would be conclusive evidence to anyone who doubted that the OL was causing the bulk of the issues.....
 
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