Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year? | Page 8 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year?

FinfanInBuffalo said:
Good, I'll expect no more posts about Tannehill and YPA and you'll focus on stats that matter.... thanks
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Well, the only way you're going to get that for yourself is by putting me on your ignore list, and please let me be your strongest supporter in that regard. :up:
 
shouright said:
Well, the only way you're going to get that for yourself is by putting me on your ignore list, and please let me be your strongest supporter in that regard. :up:
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Yeah, must suck having someone blow up all your fake arguments. No matter, there are plenty of others who can handle it as well.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
Yeah, must suck having someone blow up all your fake arguments. No matter, there are plenty of others who can handle it as well.
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I'm actually very happy to have anything I believe disproven with adequate evidence, since I will have likely learned something valuable and discovered a more tenable position for myself in the process. :)
 
shouright said:
I'm actually very happy to have anything I believe disproven with adequate evidence, since I will have likely learned something valuable and discovered a more tenable position for myself in the process. :)
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I've got news for you. Since your arguments fail because they are illogical and ill-conceived, shutting them down doesn't help you with future arguments.
 
Short and sweet answer to the OP. We have won 8 games with 2 to play, and a VG playoff shot. 8 is improved from 7 as the bottom line. Little else really matters at this point.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
I've got news for you. Since your arguments fail because they are illogical and ill-conceived, shutting them down doesn't help you with future arguments.
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Thank you for your opinion. I'm sure we'll meet again soon. :)
 
Southbeach 2 said:
Short and sweet answer to the OP. We have won 8 games with 2 to play, and a VG playoff shot. 8 is improved from 7 as the bottom line. Little else really matters at this point.
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Well, I'd agree that's short, but I'd agree it's sweet only if all you're after is a very superficial analysis. ;)
 
shouright said:
Well, I'd agree that's short, but I'd agree it's sweet only if all you're after is a very superficial analysis. ;)
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I can deal with and debate stats with anyone. HOWEVER, at this point in time, with this team, THEY DO NOT MATTER. All that matters is getting into the playoffs. You can easily see that with the posters posting. We are all on edge, and hoping to get beyond past the regular season for the first time since 2008, and that was smoke and mirrors.

Emotion has overcome any stats, as well it should. If Tannehill has a YPA of 1 and absolutely SUCKS but, we win, it will not matter. IF Tannehill has a YPA of 20, plays better than Marino ever has, and we lose, it will not matter.

Enjoy the ride and the games.
 
Southbeach 2 said:
I can deal with and debate stats with anyone. HOWEVER, at this point in time, with this team, THEY DO NOT MATTER. All that matters is getting into the playoffs. You can easily see that with the posters posting. We are all on edge, and hoping to get beyond past the regular season for the first time since 2008, and that was smoke and mirrors.

Emotion has overcome any stats, as well it should. If Tannehill has a YPA of 1 and absolutely SUCKS but, we win, it will not matter. IF Tannehill has a YPA of 20, plays better than Marino ever has, and we lose, it will not matter.

Enjoy the ride and the games.
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I don't think any of that and exploring statistics are mutually exclusive.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
The value of this thread was shouright isolating low penalty numbers and high interception numbers as key variables saving our season. That has gone largely unreported, or merely accepted as the norm for our team. For all the happy adjustments around here, none of them are downward, i.e. any type of acceptance that we can't count on penalties and interceptions to save our hide next season or beyond.

The overall level of the team needs to improve quite a bit to make sure we aren't dependent on variables like those, that tend to fluctuate wildly.

It starts with pass offense, which can overcome low grades in less vital areas. We aren't anywhere close to where we need to be. I'd also argue that the pass defense as a whole isn't great. I look at YPA minus interceptions.

I would agree with the posters who aren't comfortable using blocks of games to project win totals, or how a team's level has shifted from one point of a season to another. Sixteen isn't a magnificent sample size to begin with, let alone when it's sliced. Natural waves.

Shouright always spotlights the most relevant categories so I have no idea why so many posters are petrified of his threads.
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Disagree that INTs or turnovers are inflated for us and not something we can rely on in the future, we're only +2 in the turnover department which puts us at 13th overall--average. As with many things on this team we've been so poor in this area lately that average seems extraordinary to us. As for penalties I expect we'll always be a top 5 team in that department under Philbin.
 
tazthenomad said:
Yes... this is a Miami Dolphins message board and per your earlier post you were using this to discuss improvement within this year, right? Earlier you used the stat after the 3rd game as evidence that this model worked and my previous post said it (and I believe graphically shows) that the model is not good at predicting performance on either a weekly or an average basis.

I don't know if it is your intent but your way of answering with a question/implication instead of just saying "yes it is" or "no it isn't" to an opinion / assertion that this model doesn't work is really annoying. You have chided other posters for not doing analysis. I did one, questioned your methodology in what I hoped was a civil, organized manner and I really feel like you haven't heard a word of it based on your responses because you really don't address what I bring up.
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I took another look at this and realized I botched the equation in Excel the first time around.

Here are the new values for estimated wins for each game this year:

14.27
9.72
7.93
0.75
5.57
10.20
6.67
15.21
4.15
7.66
9.58
21.55
4.42
8.35

The estimated wins based on the full season data is currently 8.87.

Please forgive me on this. I hope we can agree there's a bit of room for human error when you're constructing an equation by hand in Excel that looks like this:

=8.06+(((B32-6.27)/0.72)*1.14)+(((B33-6.27)/0.65)*-0.92)+(((B34-2.7)/0.94)*-0.45)+(((B35-2.7)/0.81)*0.76)+(((B36-1.97)/0.51)*-0.33)+(((B37-0.0147)/0.004144)*0.42)+(((B38-4.15)/0.46)*0.46)+(((B39-4.16)/0.4)*-0.24)+(((B40-0.416)/0.0759)*E42-0.39)

;)

I'd be interested to see the plot you did above with the new values entered, if you wouldn't mind. :up:
 
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