Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year? | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year?

I'm so stoked for the Fins to go 8.87 - 7.13!!!

Super mindless overanalysis Bowl here we come!
 
Sons of Shula said:
I'm so stoked for the Fins to go 8.87 - 7.13!!!

Super mindless overanalysis Bowl here we come!
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Well don't look now, but that's about what this entire forum is devoted to, minus the footing in objective information the vast majority of the time.

Also, if they perform well the final two games, it's likely the full season estimate (8.87) will increase somewhat, and perhaps match almost exactly the final record.
 
Holy ****!!!! So you mean to tell me if the dolphins perform well in the last two games, their estimated victory total will increase!!!

Thats the math and logic our future engineers are made of rght there!!! Thats like rocket surgery!
 
op

charminbear-1.jpg
 
I wonder what our estimated number of wins would've been if we still had Bess and his massive WPA ...can you even imagine?
 
shouright said:
I took another look at this and realized I botched the equation in Excel the first time around.

Here are the new values for estimated wins for each game this year:

14.27
9.72
7.93
0.75
5.57
10.20
6.67
15.21
4.15
7.66
9.58
21.55
4.42
8.35

The estimated wins based on the full season data is currently 8.87.

Please forgive me on this. I hope we can agree there's a bit of room for human error when you're constructing an equation by hand in Excel that looks like this:

=8.06+(((B32-6.27)/0.72)*1.14)+(((B33-6.27)/0.65)*-0.92)+(((B34-2.7)/0.94)*-0.45)+(((B35-2.7)/0.81)*0.76)+(((B36-1.97)/0.51)*-0.33)+(((B37-0.0147)/0.004144)*0.42)+(((B38-4.15)/0.46)*0.46)+(((B39-4.16)/0.4)*-0.24)+(((B40-0.416)/0.0759)*E42-0.39)

;)

I'd be interested to see the plot you did above with the new values entered, if you wouldn't mind. :up:
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Here you go. The numbers are different but I still think the model doesn't work well for predicting performance for the reasons I stated earlier.
MovingAverage.png
 
russianbear said:
I wonder what our estimated number of wins would've been if we still had Bess and his massive WPA ...can you even imagine?
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Probably about the same, since they were smart enough to replace him with a receiver with an even better WPA (Gibson).
 
tazthenomad said:
Here you go. The numbers are different but I still think the model doesn't work well for predicting performance for the reasons I stated earlier.
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I appreciate your work. Based on what you said earlier, do you think it's possible you're giving the team more credit for its performance in Pittsburgh than it deserves?
 
shouright said:
I appreciate your work. Based on what you said earlier, do you think it's possible you're giving the team more credit for its performance in Pittsburgh than it deserves?
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I don't think I said anything about Pittsburgh or any other game in this conversation. Since you brought it up I would say that a system that grades our team that much higher by beating the Jets the week before the Pittsburgh game than the Pittsburgh game and the New England game needs somehow to be adjusted to take into account the opponent.
 
TealAttack13 said:
Yes... When was the last time we had a 4,000 yard QB, two 1,000 yard WRs, and playoff hopes in week 16...
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We dont have two 1,000 yard WRs, though. We don't even have one.

Hartline is very, very likely to hit the mark, but Wallace is still a question. If he's continuing his rise, then he'll hit it after Buffalo. But Ive learned one thing as a Dolphins fan, and that is never assume the best
 
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