Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year? | Page 10 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Have the Dolphins Really Improved this Year?

tazthenomad said:
I don't think I said anything about Pittsburgh or any other game in this conversation. Since you brought it up I would say that a system that grades our team that much higher by beating the Jets the week before the Pittsburgh game than the Pittsburgh game and the New England game needs somehow to be adjusted to take into account the opponent.
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That would give you this:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-15-dvoa-ratings

Note what they supplied the reader on that page:

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
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First half performance today is associated with 0.2 wins on a season.
 
tazthenomad said:
I don't think I said anything about Pittsburgh or any other game in this conversation. Since you brought it up I would say that a system that grades our team that much higher by beating the Jets the week before the Pittsburgh game than the Pittsburgh game and the New England game needs somehow to be adjusted to take into account the opponent.
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Game-to-game this week, the model's predicted number of regular season wins correlates with the final score margin (positive or negative) at 0.82 when partialling out the variance associated with opponents' season win percentage.
 
To answer the original question after our loss to the jills: NO! NO!! HELL NO!!!
 
shouright said:
And the performance overall today was associated with negative 4.5 wins on a season.
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Thanks, I needed that. I actually laughed out loud. Ok, no more football for me today, time to go do something else.
 
z926538 said:
To answer the original question after our loss to the jills: NO! NO!! HELL NO!!!
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Well, and I think the data in the original post suggest that. Even over the previous three wins in a row, the Dolphins' performance overall was associated with only 10 regular season wins. It wasn't like we had suddenly become some sort of juggernaut.
 
Improvement means nothing. You either make the playoffs or you don't. There are as many reasons to think this team will step back next year as there are that it will improve, especially since the guys in charge did just enough to save their jobs. Cue mediocrity for another season.
 
Sirspud said:
Improvement means nothing. You either make the playoffs or you don't. There are as many reasons to think this team will step back next year as there are that it will improve, especially since the guys in charge did just enough to save their jobs. Cue mediocrity for another season.
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There is nothing in the original post that suggests a great deal of improvement, statistically speaking, even prior to today's game. In fact the point of the post was to temper the perception that we were dealing with some sort of juggernaut here.
 
shouright said:
Well, and I think the data in the original post suggest that. Even over the previous three wins in a row, the Dolphins' performance overall was associated with only 10 regular season wins. It wasn't like we had suddenly become some sort of juggernaut.
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I'm not knocking the original post. I'm just trying to preempt the Ireland fanboys who will somehow try to claim that this year's 8-8 record is an improvement over last year's 7-9 record. In my opinion we're still mediocre crap and will continue to be as long as Jeff Ireland is the general manager.
 
z926538 said:
I'm not knocking the original post. I'm just trying to preempt the Ireland fanboys who will somehow try to claim that this year's 8-8 record is an improvement over last year's 7-9 record. In my opinion we're still mediocre crap and will continue to be as long as Jeff Ireland is the general manager.
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I think they'll win next week and finish 9-7, but I do think we're a long way from being competitive at a high level. As I (and Awsi Dooger) said earlier in the thread, the pass offense isn't anywhere near where it needs to be in terms of creating a foundation for high-level competitiveness in the league week in, week out.
 
shouright said:
I think they'll win next week and finish 9-7, but I do think we're a long way from being competitive at a high level. As I (and Awsi Dooger) said earlier in the thread, the pass offense isn't anywhere near where it needs to be in terms of creating a foundation for high-level competitiveness in the league week in, week out.
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Totally agree: in a league where the rules make it next to impossible to score less than 28 points a game we have a pass offense that struggles to get out of the teens!.
 
shouright said:
There is nothing in the original post that suggests a great deal of improvement, statistically speaking, even prior to today's game. In fact the point of the post was to temper the perception that we were dealing with some sort of juggernaut here.
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I didn't even read the original post. Just communicating how I define improvement regardless of any kind of stat.
 
Today's game associated with -0.06 regular season wins.

Last four games on average associated with 2.06 regular season wins.

Season performance overall associated with 7.47 regular season wins.
 
artdnj said:
It's football my friend, use the eye test. They havent been this good in a long time. Barring a complete collapse and two blow out losses I would say there is little or no doubt they are better than last year and maybe the past decade.
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Well so much for that... we just watched your "complete collapse".
 
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