How Long Does It Take Great QBs To Break Out | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

How Long Does It Take Great QBs To Break Out

Lol. I know Tannehill has a lot to prove this season but saying he will be an anomaly is a bit much. Even the reference to buttfumble was ify at best because there was a time that even buttfumble could have turned the corner and played at a higher level. It was in his third year.

I'd like to see where Tannehill compares to every QB drafted who is either a 5th, 4th or 3rd year player this season. Meaning a samples size of two 16 set seasons in year 1 and 2 for all.

The comments in the blog by this guy (Erick Delgado) are spot on. This write-up is very flexible toward saying what the writer wants it to say and not very well defined in terms of statistical definitions of several things 1) what is a franchise QB 2) How do the QBs in their 3rd to 5th years stack up when compared 3) how do rushing yards and rushing TDs influence the stats 4) what is the definition of a ****y team (unless I've slept through a few years I'd say Miami has been pretty ****y) 5) how do 1st rounders, compare to 2nd, 3rd etc...when broken down the same way?

I could go on but won't and I'll summarize by saying, there is no excuse for Tannehill this year. He either is going to be the answer or he is not, regardless of this write-up the end of the year record will tell you everything you need to know about Ryan Tannehill and his future with the Miami Dolphins.

I agree with your last statement with one caveat....the O-line is still a huge question mark.

I believe given adequate protection Tannehill will shine...if not this will be .500 team again.
 
If RT was special you wouldn't need to post these threads every season.


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That is a lie. Every fan base has fans that hate on a player for no apparent reason. I've heard more than one Green Bay Packer fan complain about Aaron Rodgers and wish the Packers would trade him. You must be one of the Tannehill haters that's led by WVDolphins on here. You better hope Tannehill falls flat on his face this season cause I plan on calling everyone of you clowns out this year. Infractions be damned...I promise you if Tannehill has the season I think he will, you're going to get ripped.
 
It's amazing...if ever a Dolphin qb deserved the benefit of a doubt going into this season it's Tannehill.

Jay noodlearmed Fiedler got more slack than RT from the haters.

Trust me....once we have a competent team around him...
I will be the first one calling him out if he fails...but he hasn't had that yet.
 
That is a lie. Every fan base has fans that hate on a player for no apparent reason. I've heard more than one Green Bay Packer fan complain about Aaron Rodgers and wish the Packers would trade him. You must be one of the Tannehill haters that's led by WVDolphins on here. You better hope Tannehill falls flat on his face this season cause I plan on calling everyone of you clowns out this year. Infractions be damned...I promise you if Tannehill has the season I think he will, you're going to get ripped.

:snack:
 
He runs the best read option of any QB. that is for sure. just did it again today. SURPRISE!
really jacked Pittsburgh last year.

kid has everything. just has to put it all together with a full deck of cards. almost there.
 
He runs the best read option of any QB. that is for sure. just did it again today. SURPRISE!
really jacked Pittsburgh last year.

kid has everything. just has to put it all together with a full deck of cards. almost there.

Uh, I think Ryan Tannehill runs the read option fairly well, but the best of any QB? Robert Griffin, for all his MANY flaws as a QB, runs the read option much better than Ryan Tannehill.
 
This post is right on the money............Thanks for a great read.
As I've been arguing for what seems like forever, any worthwhile survey of QB's, looks at efficiency numbers. No one but the common, uneducated fan, values yards - without weighing them against attempts. This article also supports what I've been arguing. If a QB does not play well early, the odds are stacked against him. There is reason for hope - with the new offense, etc. But this board needs to wake up to the FACT that history doesn't like Tannehill's chances. It's not about fault; it's about results. Early success is not ONLY an indication of talent, but it's an indication that the QB's organization knows how to groom that QB. There are always exceptions, and I hope that Tannehill is one of these exceptions. Understand, though, that if he succeeds, he would be an exception.
 
the author lost all credibility for me when he had to actually debate whether or not the jags should give up on blaine gabbert after his rookie season...
 
Very fair article. When the author immediately identifies Adjusted Net Yards per pass attempt he's a big favorite to know what he is talking about. Likewise anyone who ignores or denounces a stat like that is a huge favorite to have no clue what he's talking about.

There are helpful litmus tests all over the place in this racket.

And favoritism is what I've been spotlighting in relationship to Tannehill and all of our recent moves, including the stadium. Where's 60% and where is 40%? We find the 40% (or lower) path almost without exception and somehow rationalize it as sensible if not brilliant. Drives me nuts. I've watched the 40% guys blow out in Las Vegas since the mid '80s. They apply the adjuster mindset. Unfortunately there's no juice in this business. Go 7-9 or 8-8 while playing into 11/10 deficit and you grind toward broke. The recent Dolphin front office and too many of the apologist fans are 40% types but there's little if any penalty for it. Loud and wrong today equals the same tomorrow. Lessons never learned.

Tannehill didn't start a college season opener at quarterback until beyond his 23rd birthday. That's not a positive. It's a negative. Anyone who uses it as a positive is a 40 percenter. Tannehill was a wide receiver. That's not a positive. It's a negative. Anyone who uses it as a positive is a 40 percenter.

I don't try to be correct on every call. Where's the easy route to 60%? A sports franchise on this level should have an owner who floods the key positions with ultra sharp people. We try to catch the Patriots but they are simply smarter than we are. It's hardly Brady alone. Patriot Place compared to Miami Gardens. Jamie Collins instead of Dion Jordan. Tannehill may pan out but let's not kid ourselves that it's certain to happen or even likely to happen. It's always been uphill, long before the numbers started to accumulate. That type of background should equate to a value grab in the second or third round, not 8th off the top. The idea is to steal a vital few percent here and there, not forfeit that same few percent.

BTW, what the heck is that ridiculous stat thing flashing underneath my details at left? Don't tell me some moderator or administrator tried to be cute. That is not my doing and I'd like it to be removed. It looks like I placed it there. Until recently I've had to view this site on Printable View only and had no idea there was a moronic flashing gizmo in that spot. A sig or similar should be voluntary, not forced.
 
How do you calculate "Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt?" Is it just straight yards gained / attempts, as in YPA?
 
BTW, what the heck is that ridiculous stat thing flashing underneath my details at left? Don't tell me some moderator or administrator tried to be cute. That is not my doing and I'd like it to be removed. It looks like I placed it there. Until recently I've had to view this site on Printable View only and had no idea there was a moronic flashing gizmo in that spot. A sig or similar should be voluntary, not forced.

It was a special badge created for Shouright. As far as I know you and him were the only two "awarded" with it. Basically somebody didn't like the fact that you guys were using analytics to make Tannehill look bad. You should keep it though, if you end up being right it'll be a nice reminder to the 40 percenters, though they'll probably take it away the second he gets cut or relegated to backup.
 
How do you calculate "Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt?" Is it just straight yards gained / attempts, as in YPA?

ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). See AY/A. Note that we are now using 20 yards per TD instead of 10, because of research by Chase Stuart at the p-f-r blog.

(Literally took like 2 seconds to google that)
 
Well...as my master's statistics teacher often said, "stats can say anything you want them to say."

This article lacks unbiased context, but it's likely a relatively somewhat-accurate predictability for particular quarterback situations. It's got to be near impossible to develop a sure-fire tool to reliably predict a single position's success in a team sport such as football, with all of the environmental factors involved.

Interesting read though.
 
Well...as my master's statistics teacher often said, "stats can say anything you want them to say."

This article lacks unbiased context, but it's likely a relatively somewhat-accurate predictability for particular quarterback situations. It's got to be near impossible to develop a sure-fire tool to reliably predict a single position's success in a team sport such as football, with all of the environmental factors involved.

Interesting read though.

The point is not to develop a sure-fire tool. The point is to develop tools that predict success better than others. Awsi covered this on the 4th page of this thread.
 
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