How Long Does It Take Great QBs To Break Out

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Right, but if you're a GM for 5 years, assuming you have 7 picks per draft, you're drafting 35 players. If you consistently go against the odds, they catch you. Miami has literally been up against the odds for years based on the players and coaches they've drafted and hired. If I'm a GM and I'm looking at a guy who has a strong chance to fail - whether it be due to athletic testing, mediocre performance in college, or some other factor - I want to have a good reason for taking that gamble. You want some elite characteristics that make you believe this player will defy the trends. Players with Tannehill's college career and pro career to date more often than not fail to become franchise QB's. You can point to reasons that it's been harder for Tannehill, but a lot of QB's who had similar career paths and failed to meet expectations also had reasons.

QB is the hardest position to draft. For every limited experience QB (Tannehill) there are several that are taken that haven't played in a pro style offense (RGIII, Newton, Kaepernick). I've seen most of those QBs fail in the pros. There just aren't many QBs that come out without flaws. You have to be lucky to be sitting at the top of the draft, with a need at QB, in the right year. Indy? Twice.

For all the knocks on Tannehill's limited playing time in college (thanks to the idiot Sherman), there is one thing that is ignored, he can throw the damn football. Anyone who claims he didn't have the talent to start all 4 years in college is full of crap. He doesn't show any of the lack of fundamentals that you would expect from an athlete that was moved to QB.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I ll only answer the first part of your post because I don't follow college football... I literally have no access to it in Canada except couple of games a year... But seriously! No matter how bad/good/terrible a GM Ireland was.... He HAD to pick a QB in the 1st round of that draft.... He just had too... Tannehill wasn't an all in in early position with pocket aces 100BBs deep... He was like 9-10s on the button with 5bbs left... you literally have no choice to go for it... And hope for the best....

I agree that there was huge pressure to draft a QB in the 1st, and I agree with your poker analogy. It was very much a situation where you push all your chips in with your first playable hand. Of course, if you're going all in with 9/10 with 5BB's, it probably means you passed on the opportunity to go all in with an A/5 or a K/9 somewhere between the 10bb's and 5bb's. Like the poker analogy, we waited too long and put ourselves in a situation of absolute desperation. When you do that, you pass on can't-miss stars like Luke Kuechly for projections like Tannehill.

Slimm and Awsi have noted this is Miami - highlighting different angles, as each has his own background and area of expertise. But if you make drafting projections the rule rather than the exception, you're going to have drafts full of misses, and it's unlikely that your roster with carry the necessary star power. You should be drafting stars in the 1st RD. Carolina has drafted Newton, Kuechly, and Lotulelei in the last three drafts. Miami has drafted Pouncey (good player/bad person), Tannehill, and Dion Jordan. At the time Carolina drafted Newton, Miami was the better team.

Assuming Miami plays well enough for Hickey to keep his job, I'm really interested to see how he'll handle the first two or three rounds next season. Assuming Tannehill plays well this season, there is no position on Miami's roster that NEEDS to be addressed in the 1st RD next season. So he should have the freedom to draft a GREAT player.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

QB is the hardest position to draft. For every limited experience QB (Tannehill) there are several that are taken that haven't played in a pro style offense (RGIII, Newton, Kaepernick). I've seen most of those QBs fail in the pros. There just aren't many QBs that come out without flaws. You have to be lucky to be sitting at the top of the draft, with a need at QB, in the right year. Indy? Twice.

For all the knocks on Tannehill's limited playing time in college (thanks to the idiot Sherman), there is one thing that is ignored, he can throw the damn football. Anyone who claims he didn't have the talent to start all 4 years in college is full of crap. He doesn't show any of the lack of fundamentals that you would expect from an athlete that was moved to QB.

The Colts definitely use their horseshoe powers to go from Manning to Luck.

Unfortunately for Tannehill, Miami drafted him without having a good plan to develop him. SF drafted Kaepernick in the 2nd with the understanding that Harbaugh is an outstanding QB coach and Kaepernick has rare physical tools and a great competitive drive. There was no doubt that despite his terrible mechanics at Nevada, he carried that team - leading them to victories against teams they shouldn't have beat (Boise State for one).

As with anything, it's all about risk/reward and planning. Lazor seems like a guy with a vision. Hopefully he can salvage the situation.

 

[FSU Truth]

I agree that there was huge pressure to draft a QB in the 1st, and I agree with your poker analogy. It was very much a situation where you push all your chips in with your first playable hand. Of course, if you're going all in with 9/10 with 5BB's, it probably means you passed on the opportunity to go all in with an A/5 or a K/9 somewhere between the 10bb's and 5bb's. Like the poker analogy, we waited too long and put ourselves in a situation of absolute desperation. When you do that, you pass on can't-miss stars like Luke Kuechly for projections like Tannehill.

Slimm and Awsi have noted this is Miami - highlighting different angles, as each has his own background and area of expertise. But if you make drafting projections the rule rather than the exception, you're going to have drafts full of misses, and it's unlikely that your roster with carry the necessary star power. You should be drafting stars in the 1st RD. Carolina has drafted Newton, Kuechly, and Lotulelei in the last three drafts. Miami has drafted Pouncey (good player/bad person), Tannehill, and Dion Jordan. At the time Carolina drafted Newton, Miami was the better team.

Assuming Miami plays well enough for Hickey to keep his job, I'm really interested to see how he'll handle the first two or three rounds next season. Assuming Tannehill plays well this season, there is no position on Miami's roster that NEEDS to be addressed in the 1st RD next season. So he should have the freedom to draft a GREAT player.

Right now....LB, G, RB come to mind...

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Right now....LB, G, RB come to mind...

You should be able to find starters at each of those positions outside of the 1st. No RB has even been drafted in the 1st RD in the last two seasons. That should change this year, but that doesn't mean we NEED to draft a RB in the 1st. Is it a possibility? Yes. Need in the 1st? No.

I expect McCain and Tripp to be starting caliber LB's by this time next season. Misi is a capable starting SLB. He might be a capable MLB; we'll see. Regardless, we've seen that you can get very good LB's in the 2nd and 3rd RD's - L. David, N. Bowman, K. Alonso, B. Wagner, D. Washington. If you have a stud sitting there in the 1st, by all means, draft him, but there's no NEED to reach for a LB in the 1st.

And you can find starting caliber LG's throughout the first 4-5 RD's. There's never a need to draft a LG in the 1st. If you do draft a LG in the 1st, he better look like an All Pro.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

The Colts definitely use their horseshoe powers to go from Manning to Luck.

Unfortunately for Tannehill, Miami drafted him without having a good plan to develop him. SF drafted Kaepernick in the 2nd with the understanding that Harbaugh is an outstanding QB coach and Kaepernick has rare physical tools and a great competitive drive. There was no doubt that despite his terrible mechanics at Nevada, he carried that team - leading them to victories against teams they shouldn't have beat (Boise State for one).

As with anything, it's all about risk/reward and planning. Lazor seems like a guy with a vision. Hopefully he can salvage the situation.

IMO, Kaep is still not a good QB. He still has bad mechanics. He still doesn't read defenses. The final few drives against Seattle proved to me that he is not the answer. The situation dictated that he had to play QB not RB/QB. He cannot do it.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

IMO, Kaep is still not a good QB. He still has bad mechanics. He still doesn't read defenses. The final few drives against Seattle proved to me that he is not the answer. The situation dictated that he had to play QB not RB/QB. He cannot do it.

He also was their entire offense that game against the best D in the NFL, playing in the toughest stadium in the NFL. He's not a polished QB, but his positive traits outweigh his negative traits. He also played most of last season with a broken bone in his foot - occurred against Seattle in WK 2. I think SF is right to be happy with Kaepernick. Protects the ball, makes big plays, and he plays better in the playoffs. There are legitimate reasons to knock him, but I'd be happy with him as my QB.

 

[hoops]

the qbs the most important position on the field...if any fan base should know that it should be the miami one...you can have all the kuechlys or lotuleleis you want but if you don't got a qb you don't got squat

miamis got the most important piece...

 

[FSU Truth]

You should be able to find starters at each of those positions outside of the 1st. No RB has even been drafted in the 1st RD in the last two seasons. That should change this year, but that doesn't mean we NEED to draft a RB in the 1st. Is it a possibility? Yes. Need in the 1st? No.

I expect McCain and Tripp to be starting caliber LB's by this time next season. Misi is a capable starting SLB. He might be a capable MLB; we'll see. Regardless, we've seen that you can get very good LB's in the 2nd and 3rd RD's - L. David, N. Bowman, K. Alonso, B. Wagner, D. Washington. If you have a stud sitting there in the 1st, by all means, draft him, but there's no NEED to reach for a LB in the 1st.

And you can find starting caliber LG's throughout the first 4-5 RD's. There's never a need to draft a LG in the 1st. If you do draft a LG in the 1st, he better look like an All Pro.

You should, but it doesn't always happen...

With that said I agree that the team should be able to address those particular positions later in the draft and hope that Tripp and McCain are the answer to one of those areas. I like the potential of Turner and feel he only needs a little refinement before he is a more then competent guard. RB....no one on the current roster is all that great, but if the Phins are drafting in the 20's and Gordan is sitting there I hope they sprint that card up to the desk.

Other areas they will need to look at...

TE - potentially if they don't reach a deal for Clay...

DT - Depends on what Odrick does and Francis and Johnson's development.

 

[phinfan40353]

I don't think Tannehill will ever be Luck. But that doesn't bother me one bit. I love me some Tannehill.

Honestly, he keeps improving every year. And his ceiling has yet to be reached. Factor those things in compared to how he has played and I think Tannehill is our Franchise for the next decade. On his worst day, he doesn't have the tendency to unravel at the core like so many have before.

Of all the nitpicking many do, and yes I know its the nature of the football beast, what we have in Tannehill is better than 2/3 of the other teams in the league. And that makes me happy. I know Tannehill gives us stability, hope for improvement and immediate results week in and week out. So much so that we can worry about the other positions on the team. And that fact alone is enough to make me not worry about the future of my team. I know we have the QB question answered. Now it's just a function of learning and time.

It's a great feeling knowing how well he did the year before and realizing the next year he will get better. That's something you can't say about most QBs in the league. He's not one dimensional and he hasn't truly shown a weakness he can't improve. I look at other more famous QBs and I can't say that about them.

I still believe Luck and Tannehill will be the best QBs from their draft. Russell Wilson has a great team around him and he works well within the team. He has the "IT" factor, but I don't think he has the talent of Tannehill and Luck. Time will tell, but I think Luck and Tannehill are going to be the long term gems of their class.

Frankly, I don't worry about QB. We have a great young one.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

You should, but it doesn't always happen...

With that said I agree that the team should be able to address those particular positions later in the draft and hope that Tripp and McCain are the answer to one of those areas. I like the potential of Turner and feel he only needs a little refinement before he is a more then competent guard. RB....no one on the current roster is all that great, but if the Phins are drafting in the 20's and Gordan is sitting there I hope they sprint that card up to the desk.

Other areas they will need to look at...

TE - potentially if they don't reach a deal for Clay...

DT - Depends on what Odrick does and Francis and Johnson's development.

As far as his outlook today, I'd be happy with Gordon in the 20s or later.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

He also was their entire offense that game against the best D in the NFL, playing in the toughest stadium in the NFL. He's not a polished QB, but his positive traits outweigh his negative traits. He also played most of last season with a broken bone in his foot - occurred against Seattle in WK 2. I think SF is right to be happy with Kaepernick. Protects the ball, makes big plays, and he plays better in the playoffs. There are legitimate reasons to knock him, but I'd be happy with him as my QB.

Fumble, INT, INT on successive drives. This message board erupts in flames if Tannehill does that.

Kaep protects the ball as long as pulling it down and running or throwing it away are options #1 and #2. When he needs to make a play from the pocket and the defense knows it, I do not want him as my QB.

 

[NBP81]

I agree that there was huge pressure to draft a QB in the 1st, and I agree with your poker analogy. It was very much a situation where you push all your chips in with your first playable hand. Of course, if you're going all in with 9/10 with 5BB's, it probably means you passed on the opportunity to go all in with an A/5 or a K/9 somewhere between the 10bb's and 5bb's. Like the poker analogy, we waited too long and put ourselves in a situation of absolute desperation. When you do that, you pass on can't-miss stars like Luke Kuechly for projections like Tannehill.

Slimm and Awsi have noted this is Miami - highlighting different angles, as each has his own background and area of expertise. But if you make drafting projections the rule rather than the exception, you're going to have drafts full of misses, and it's unlikely that your roster with carry the necessary star power. You should be drafting stars in the 1st RD. Carolina has drafted Newton, Kuechly, and Lotulelei in the last three drafts. Miami has drafted Pouncey (good player/bad person), Tannehill, and Dion Jordan. At the time Carolina drafted Newton, Miami was the better team.

Assuming Miami plays well enough for Hickey to keep his job, I'm really interested to see how he'll handle the first two or three rounds next season. Assuming Tannehill plays well this season, there is no position on Miami's roster that NEEDS to be addressed in the 1st RD next season. So he should have the freedom to draft a GREAT player.

Yes that's a given, every GM we`ve had in the last decade have no idea wtf they were doing... But at that time, Tannehill had to be the pick. And while odds overall might have been stacked against him, he s ahead of his logical learning curve as everyone expected him to have to sit a year and go from there. The odds have changed, as he keeps improving. We got dealt a pretty decent flop looking at his first to years... Lets see what the turn and river bring...

 

[hoops]

I don't think Tannehill will ever be Luck. But that doesn't bother me one bit. I love me some Tannehill.

Honestly, he keeps improving every year. And his ceiling has yet to be reached. Factor those things in compared to how he has played and I think Tannehill is our Franchise for the next decade. On his worst day, he doesn't have the tendency to unravel at the core like so many have before.

Of all the nitpicking many do, and yes I know its the nature of the football beast, what we have in Tannehill is better than 2/3 of the other teams in the league. And that makes me happy. I know Tannehill gives us stability, hope for improvement and immediate results week in and week out. So much so that we can worry about the other positions on the team. And that fact alone is enough to make me not worry about the future of my team. I know we have the QB question answered. Now it's just a function of learning and time.

It's a great feeling knowing how well he did the year before and realizing the next year he will get better. That's something you can't say about most QBs in the league. He's not one dimensional and he hasn't truly shown a weakness he can't improve. I look at other more famous QBs and I can't say that about them.

I still believe Luck and Tannehill will be the best QBs from their draft. Russell Wilson has a great team around him and he works well within the team. He has the "IT" factor, but I don't think he has the talent of Tannehill and Luck. Time will tell, but I think Luck and Tannehill are going to be the long term gems of their class.

Frankly, I don't worry about QB. We have a great young one.

smart guy right here...

 

[Zounds]

Until recently I've had to view this site on Printable View only and had no idea there was a moronic flashing gizmo in that spot.

You should upgrade from the Windows 95 Tandy 1000 system. Printing out each frame and making a flip book is no substitute for streaming internet video.