Earlier in this thread you could have called me PANCAKE, but today just call me waffle because I am going to go with OT at 19 instead of BPA.
As painful as it is, I have decided to take Mayock and Pollian's advice and go OL with our 1st pick. Protecting Tannehill and having a decent run game are just too important. We saw last year how the lack of protection and the limited run game negatively impacted the productivity of our offense. So much so that I am willing to take a step back, regroup, and try and build a quality OL. As sad as it is that we have to do that, I feel it must be done if we are ever going to become the powerhouse we all want to be.
With that said, my pick at 19 is a reach because the guy I want probably is not going to be there when we pick in the 2nd. I also don't want to take a chance, trade back, and hope he is there in the late 1st. I assume that the top 4 OT's will be gone and we have to select from Kouandijo, Moses, Bitonio, James, and the like. I have concerns about Kouandijo's knee and Moses's work ethic, so I am going with Bitonio even though both Kouandijo and Moses are superior in size and length.
A few weeks ago I did a OT chart evaluating the top OT's using a variety of metrics such as Kerwin's Explosion Index, etc. based on those metrics and what folks have been saying about Bitonio's film, I believe he is the best candidate for our ZBS. I understand that he needs to get stronger, but his agility and speed scores are higher than Martin's (not to mention his arm length is 1" longer). In fact, if I increase his bench press from 22 reps to 28 he is the only OT to score at the desired level in all four categories. For convenience, the chart is below. Martin's 40 yard dash was taken from draft scout and is his lowest 40 listed. I also made assumptions on Bitonio's bench press after he gets into a NFL workout regimen and increased it from 22 to 28, as I said earlier.
Note: If I use draft scout's mid score of 5.22 for Martin's 40 time he drops to having only 1 metric at or above the desired level. If I leave Bitonio's bench at 22 he just loses the target at Kirwin's Explosion Index, but stays at or above in the other 3. Also, I realize that metrics are not the end all be all when it comes to player evaluation and what is on tape should carry more weight. If Martin is there at 19, then I suppose we should take him instead of Bitonio, but if not I think Botonio is the safer pick of what is left consider the injury concerns of Kouandijo and the work ethic concerns of Moses.
Steve
