Hurricane Irma Only thread | Page 13 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Hurricane Irma Only thread

Praying for everyone to stay safe. I feel ok here in Kissimmee but even we're going to be getting hit up here too. Mom in a near by nursing home and I believe she'll be fine there. We're pretty much as ready as we're going to be. Sister in law coming over from Daytona tomorrow to stay with us. Good decision on her part and that's not normally her.....lol....and rooting for the darn Pats to lose tonight

Ozzy rules!!~
 
I feel like the use of the 'cone' by the NHC is a bit misleading. It's actually the median point between the US model and the European model, meaning that the eye of the storm is predicted to either shave off the Atlantic coast, or run right over Key West and then Naples.

Hope for the former scenario. Most structures in South Florida will hold up very well to 120mph winds, but once you get in the 175mph+ neighborhood, that's when things get real bad.
 
Seems like some models have it going further east. That's good news for me in Doral.
 
J. David Wannyheimer said:
I feel like the use of the 'cone' by the NHC is a bit misleading. It's actually the median point between the US model and the European model, meaning that the eye of the storm is predicted to either shave off the Atlantic coast, or run right over Key West and then Naples.

Hope for the former scenario. Most structures in South Florida will hold up very well to 120mph winds, but once you get in the 175mph+ neighborhood, that's when things get real bad.
Click to expand...
That is usually how the NHC runs its forecast. They really rely on a bunch of models and their computers run a consensus track. Some models have higher degree of accuracy and some less.
The cone is also a consensus of the most extreme models and past experiences. People used to relax when they just looked at the track and some were caught by surprise. Andrew never had a cone. NHC warned about a margin of error on their 3 day forecast (5 days forecast did not exist) but there was no cone publicized. Andrew was actually expect to come into South Fort Lauderdale but made a very slight jump to the south and it became a 50 mile difference.

The cone is a brilliant idea for people to worry and get prepared. Better prepare for nothing instead of getting caught by surprise.
 
Luckily I had a new roof installed last year. Also added accordion shutters four years ago.
 
phins_4_ever said:
That is usually how the NHC runs its forecast. They really rely on a bunch of models and their computers run a consensus track. Some models have higher degree of accuracy and some less.
The cone is also a consensus of the most extreme models and past experiences. People used to relax when they just looked at the track and some were caught by surprise. Andrew never had a cone. NHC warned about a margin of error on their 3 day forecast (5 days forecast did not exist) but there was no cone publicized. Andrew was actually expect to come into South Fort Lauderdale but made a very slight jump to the south and it became a 50 mile difference.

The cone is a brilliant idea for people to worry and get prepared. Better prepare for nothing instead of getting caught by surprise.
Click to expand...

Yep. The variance for models on a 4 day projection is 175 miles. I'm not sure how it funnels down from there being that we are currently 72 hours out, but you still have to account for it's unpredictability and can't rely on the drawn path. The cone visual is a good indicator for what possibly could be.
 


Note the possibility of direct impacts for Georgia, and N & S Carolina for those in those regions as well.
 
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