1. If the Dolphins want to play the no-one-believes-in-us card, it’s there for them this year. That’s because even before training camp opens a lot of people don’t believe they have a chance to do much of anything this season. Let’s take three national football outlets:
A. Football Outsiders Almanac. 2012 Mean Prediction: 6.9 wins. Playoff odds: 9.7 percent. Super Bowl odds: 5 percent. Outlook: “Miami has replaced Buffalo as denizens of the AFC East hamster wheel, forever going nowhere.”
B. Pro Football Weekly predicts the Dolphins to be last in the AFC East and that one of the league-wide regrets of the season will be, “Joe Philbin taking the Dolphins job.” Why? “If (Jeff) Ireland becomes the scapegoat this season or next, the man Ross hires to replace him might not hesitate to fire Philbin and move in a different direction. The Dolphins are asking him to win now with two suspect QB optiosn in Matt More and David Garrard … Will Philbin even get a chance to see how good Ryan Tannehill can become?”
C. ESPN ranked its
top 25 prospects, which was defined essentially as a player drafted in the third round or lower (or not drafted at all) and 26 or younger. There were 21 teams with players on the list if you stretch it to the 30 named in rankings and honorable mention. The Dolphins didn't have a player on the list. The Patriots had three (RB Stevan Ridley, OL Marcus Cannon and QB Ryan Mallett).
Of course, this is all just media talking. But the point is the Dolphins' off-season didn't move the needle of expectation on this team. If there's a rallying cry, it's how a new regime came in with similar expectations in 2008 and made the playoffs.
I'll save my forecast for later this summer.