If Tanne breaks 20TD Passes: He is the REAL DEAL (I PROVE IT WITH ONE SIMPLE STAT) | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

If Tanne breaks 20TD Passes: He is the REAL DEAL (I PROVE IT WITH ONE SIMPLE STAT)

I agree RGIII may not have proved to be "real deal" yet...but it seems like it, although he is regressing this year.
 
Almost as convincing is the fact that the stats show if they didn't get to 20 in their first two years they never got it. (17/21). There have been two that got it in their 3rd or 4th year and that was Mark Sanchez/Rex Grossman...
 
LacesOutTanne34 said:
There is only ONE stat here and that is 20td passes within two years as a starter. WHich I looked at as a great predictor of QB success. I did not realize it was accurate 100% of the time.
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It's actually not, because according to your post, 14% of the QBs who didn't meet your criteria went on to be successful as you've defined it (i.e., "the real deal").

But I applaud your effort as representing the kind of objective analysis that the board could use much more of in my opinion. :up:
 
I don't agree that deep ball accuracy is his issue. His deep balls to people not named Wallace were fine.

Tanny's issue is anticipation. I've got to say, he's working on it and it's slowly improving.
1) He's processing his reads quicker. It's still not quick enough, especially for the deep ball (which is exacerbated with Wallace's speed - you need to decide v. quickly to hit Wallace deep)
2) His pocket awareness is gently improving. Let's face it, it needs plenty of work but only a blind man would say he hasn't seen some improvement.
3) His anticipation of receivers routes and throwing to receivers in stride is a big issue. Sunday, I saw him hit a couple for the first time in a long while where he really led the WR to yards after catch with his placement. The nicest of those was to Hartline, sometime in the first half.

He's still an adolescent in competitive snaps terms. His ultra-calm, almost robotic demeanour is maybe misleading as to the thirst for improvement and the will to win. It's part of the reason why I'm sceptical about his ceiling being at "franchise" or "elite" level. He doesn't inspire (which is it's own problem within the team, if they feel the same way), but that doesn't mean he isn't good and progressing on the road towards very good.

He certainly hasn't plateaued. I don't think anyone could successfully argue that. The question is whether his unquestioned progress is ultimately undermined by more fundamental flaws in his QB makeup. I can't call it right now, I can only applaud him for his obvious dedication to getting better.
 
So Carson Plamer is the real deal for leading his team to the playoffs twice, but Grossman who went to the superbowl, and Sanchez who went to the afc championship twice, are busts?
 
Lol yes, I mean I'm sure that does hold weight too. But, I'm of the belief that TD passes alone is best predictor early on in a career because it shows the ability to make crucial plays. I'll use 3 guys as an example

Byron Lefwich: 14tds and then 15tds in year two.
Christian Ponder: 13 tds and 18tds

had better ratio's, but what do you want to see from your young qb? The ability to score TD's. And guys like Ponder and others who came close (17-19tds in 2nd year) ALL went bust whereas NO ONE since 2000 in first round who went 20+ went bust.

(with at least 10 in other season)
 
Phantom said:
So Carson Plamer is the real deal for leading his team to the playoffs twice, but Grossman who went to the superbowl, and Sanchez who went to the afc championship twice, are busts?
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is there any question that sanchez is a bust? or grossman?
 
shouright said:
It's actually not, because according to your post, 14% of the QBs who didn't meet your criteria went on to be successful as you've defined it (i.e., "the real deal").

But I applaud your effort as representing the kind of objective analysis that the board could use much more of in my opinion. :up:
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That wasn't point though, 100% who did went on to become "real deal" was the point. I wasn't saying that if you DON'T hit this criteria you won't be good. I am saying Those who DID have ALL went on to be solid NFL Qbs. (1st round qbs)
 
LacesOutTanne34 said:
Lol yes, I mean I'm sure that does hold weight too. But, I'm of the belief that TD passes alone is best predictor early on in a career because it shows the ability to make crucial plays.
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The "crucial plays" angle was tackled here:

http://www.finheaven.com/showthread...ill-Going-to-Become-a-Franchise-QB&highlight=

...though it was based on more than just TD passes, which are a random variable and do not predict their own future occurrence, and therefore can't be said to reflect a stable attribute of a player.

WPA does a better job of addressing clutch plays (what you called "crucial" plays above), including TDs, in my opinion, and it predicts its own future occurrence and can therefore be said to reflect a stable attribute. It also weeds out plays that are made during garbage time and that have relatively little impact on games, such as TD passes when a team is ahead or behind by a large margin late in a game. Those would not be "crucial plays" as you've called them, yet TD pass numbers alone don't control for them.

---------- Post added at 12:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:20 PM ----------
LacesOutTanne34 said:
That wasn't point though, 100% who did went on to become "real deal" was the point. I wasn't saying that if you DON'T hit this criteria you won't be good. I am saying Those who DID have ALL went on to be solid NFL Qbs. (1st round qbs)
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Right, but theoretically speaking, if a substantial percentage of QBs who don't meet the criterion also go on to be good, then you have a meaningless criterion, because it would fail to distinguish the future good QBs from the future bad ones.
 
Phantom said:
So Carson Plamer is the real deal for leading his team to the playoffs twice, but Grossman who went to the superbowl, and Sanchez who went to the afc championship twice, are busts?
Click to expand...

Carson Palmer Career (and its still going): 205 TDS 145INTS 32000+ yards
Rex Grossman (Career Over): 56TDS 60INTS 10,000 yards
Mark Sanchez (Might not get opportunity to start again) 68TDS 69INTS 12,000 yards

If Sanchez comes close to any of carson's career #'s I will gladly admit my original post is bs
 
20 tds is not a good barometer of future qb success...tannehill will get you 20 no problem this year but that shouldn't be an in stone indicator for anything
 
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