Interesting Tannehill Stat Comparison

[rent this space]

Well remember that what we're talking about here is passing efficiency, not anything more broad than that.

Of course it's possible that there are team variables that are artificially deflating his YPA, but I'm unaware of any that can be supported objectively. Consequently the most parsimonious explanation in my opinion is that he currently isn't extraordinarily efficient in terms of his own individual ability.

That isn't what any dyed in the wool fan of the team wants to hear, because we know at least on some level that our hopes for the team hinge largely on Tannehill's ability, but the objective evidence points in that direction in my opinion.

Wow, way to go out on a limb, lol

 

[Shouright]

Wow, way to go out on a limb, lol

Actually being "out on a limb" would be explaining Tannehill's average-level YPA in terms of team variables whose relationship with YPA isn't supported objectively.

I don't go out on such limbs. I stick safely with what's supported objectively, right there in the thick part of the tree that's firmly rooted in something. :)

 

[rent this space]

Actually being "out on a limb" would be explaining Tannehill's average-level YPA in terms of team variables whose relationship with YPA isn't supported objectively.

I don't go out on such limbs. I stick safely with what's supported objectively, right there in the thick part of the tree that's firmly rooted in something. :)

Do you believe team variables have anything to do with Tom Brady currently being ranked 17th in YPA?
Or how about Matt Ryan at #21, do you think team variables might be affecting his passing efficiency?
Really, there are exceptions all over the list. Geno Smith is ranked above Matt Ryan, Cam Newton Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco. Tom Brady is below Casey Keenum, Carson Palmer, Josh McKown and Philip Rivers.
this is the best stat we have?

 

[Shouright]

Do you believe team variables have anything to do with Tom Brady currently being ranked 17th in YPA?

It's sure possible. I haven't analyzed their team at all, however. It's also possible that Tom Brady is starting to show signs of age, and his own individual ability is declining.

 

[Canadi-Phin]

It's sure possible. I haven't analyzed their team at all, however. It's also possible that Tom Brady is starting to show signs of age, and his own individual ability is declining.

Or maybe he has all new recievers and has played most of the year without Gronk or Vareen. Maybe the new guys don't get open as much, drop more passes, don't break tackles but then that would ruin your theory of YPA being a QB stat.

Exemption do ruin the theory of the correlation if for instances 7 of your 20 samples don't belong in the group but the stats are showing they should. Like in this case.

But I'll play your game of using 10 point increments, 100-110 goes from number 15 Tom Brady to number 53 Dave Kreig. Are these the same caliber of player? Just below Krieg are Flacco, Stafford and Bledsoe. Lucky for me I've watched all 5 play and Kreig is not in any of the four mentioned caliber regardless of what the stats are telling you. How about number 52 Erik Kramer? Equal or sma e caliber of Tom Brady? How about Stan Humpreis? Aaron Brooks? Tommy Maddux? How about we shrink it to 105-110, Delhomme equal to Brady? Beurlein? Bulger? Cunningham? The stats tell you part of any story. These are not exceptions when 4 of 10 players I would never think of in the same sentence as Brady 110 or Marino 108. Not to mention Cam Newton is sandwiched in between these two. Will he be as great as these two? Who knows but apparent YPA tells us that he is. Get my point yet?

 

[Shouright]

But I'll play your game of using 10 point increments, 100-110 goes from number 15 Tom Brady to number 53 Dave Kreig. Are these the same caliber of player?

I suppose you're aware that Brady's score is 110, and Kreig's is just 100, ten points less? I thought looking at 10-point increments would be a good idea, thinking you'd recognize that there is variation, as well, within those 10-point increments, but I suppose it wasn't such a bright idea on my part if you're simply going to ignore that variation and treat everyone in the group as "the same."

Listen, if you can't see the overall correlation there between individual ability and YPA, I can't help you. We can just agree to disagree at this point, rather than continuing to waste time for either of us. I'm going to think what I think regardless, and I suppose you might, as well. :up:

 

[Canadi-Phin]

What I'd encourage you to do with that list is look at increments of 10 points and determine the caliber of QB in that group, generally.

Since the bottom player on the list has a score of 80, take a look at the caliber of QB you find, again generally, between 80 and 90. Do the same for 91 through 100, 101 through 110, and then 111 and above.

While I imagine you'll perceive a smattering here and there of QBs who "don't belong" in those groups, such as Jay Fielder's being near Warren Moon, I think you'll find that overall, in general, there's a darn good correspondence between the ordering of those QBs and the perceptions of their individual ability.

We're never going to find a "perfect" statistic. However, when you have one that's this strongly correlated with individual ability and with winning, you should probably be rooting for your quarterback to do well with regard to it.

I'll play this game as well since you also think YPA and winning go hand and hand, #87 Sanchez, 2 AFC champion ship game, #82 went to the Super Bowl, #79 Grossman went to a Super Bowl, #74 Esiason Super Bowl, #73 Dilfer, won a Super Bowl, #70 Collins NFC Championship game, #62 O'donnell went to. Super Bowl, #59 Bledsoe went to Super Bowl, #56 Johnson won a Super Bowl, #55 Flacco won a Super Bowl. These are some of the worst QBs on the list yet I can quickly show you 10 who have won or gone to the big game when it mattered. This is a team game, all stats in the world can be thrown out. Brady's three championship years were 6.9,6.9,7.8. His QB ratings were 85,85, then 95. His best years he has won nothing because his team wasn't as good.

 

[Canadi-Phin]

I suppose you're aware that Brady's score is 110, and Kreig's is just 100, ten points less? I thought looking at 10-point increments would be a good idea, thinking you'd recognize that there is variation, as well, within those 10-point increments, but I suppose it wasn't such a bright idea on my part if you're simply going to ignore that variation and treat everyone in the group as "the same."

Listen, if you can't see the overall correlation there between individual ability and YPA, I can't help you. We can just agree to disagree at this point, rather than continuing to waste time for either of us. I'm going to think what I think regardless, and I suppose you might, as well. :up:

This is a typical stance by you, "oh you don't understand what I just told you, don't go by that" , if you read the post I shrank the numbers to 105-110. You think you know more than you do and overstate your position before thinking or reading. If you don't understand what I've told you keep your nose in your stats book.

 

[Shouright]

...

Thanks for the discussion. :up:

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Well remember that what we're talking about here is passing efficiency, not anything more broad than that.

Of course it's possible that there are team variables that are artificially deflating his YPA, but I'm unaware of any that can be supported objectively. Consequently the most parsimonious explanation in my opinion is that he currently isn't extraordinarily efficient in terms of his own individual ability.

That isn't what any dyed in the wool fan of the team wants to hear, because we know at least on some level that our hopes for the team hinge largely on Tannehill's ability, but the objective evidence points in that direction in my opinion.

So, because you are unaware of something, it doesn't exist.... wow, just wow.

YPA is a stat that is affected by YAC, drops, sacks; play calling, etc etc etc. It is possible? WTF? Are you dense or just obstinate?

 

[Shouright]

So, because you are unaware of something, it doesn't exist.... wow, just wow.

YPA is a stat that is affected by YAC, drops, sacks; play calling, etc etc etc. It is possible? WTF? Are you dense or just obstinate?

I've researched the relationships between those variables (and others) and YPA league-wide, and between those variables and Tannehill's YPA game-to-game this year, yet despite that work on my part, I'm aware enough of my limitations to state simply that I'm unaware of team variables that are objectively related to his YPA, since I know there could be others I haven't looked at or cannot.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Or maybe he has all new recievers and has played most of the year without Gronk or Vareen. Maybe the new guys don't get open as much, drop more passes, don't break tackles but then that would ruin your theory of YPA being a QB stat.

Exemption do ruin the theory of the correlation if for instances 7 of your 20 samples don't belong in the group but the stats are showing they should. Like in this case.

But I'll play your game of using 10 point increments, 100-110 goes from number 15 Tom Brady to number 53 Dave Kreig. Are these the same caliber of player? Just below Krieg are Flacco, Stafford and Bledsoe. Lucky for me I've watched all 5 play and Kreig is not in any of the four mentioned caliber regardless of what the stats are telling you. How about number 52 Erik Kramer? Equal or sma e caliber of Tom Brady? How about Stan Humpreis? Aaron Brooks? Tommy Maddux? How about we shrink it to 105-110, Delhomme equal to Brady? Beurlein? Bulger? Cunningham? The stats tell you part of any story. These are not exceptions when 4 of 10 players I would never think of in the same sentence as Brady 110 or Marino 108. Not to mention Cam Newton is sandwiched in between these two. Will he be as great as these two? Who knows but apparent YPA tells us that he is. Get my point yet?

Don't bother with him. He tried the "Brady might be getting old" crap with me. Then I pointed out the variation in Brady's YPA early in his career and noted the big changes in the receivers (Moss and Welker) that coincided with the spike in YPA. His response? A shoulder shrug, then back to his nonsense that YPA is solely a measure of the QB's efficiency. I have never seen a less logical, more obstinate poster. When cornered, he he just makes stuff up and tries to change the meaning of English. Didn't you know that "moderately strongly correlated" means "largely unrelated"?

 

[Shouright]

Don't bother with him. He tried the "Brady might be getting old" crap with me. Then I pointed out the variation in Brady's YPA early in his career and noted the big changes in the receivers (Moss and Welker) that coincided with the spike in YPA. His response? A shoulder shrug, then back to his nonsense that YPA is solely a measure of the QB's efficiency. I have never seen a less logical, more obstinate poster. When cornered, he he just makes stuff up and tries to change the meaning of English. Didn't you know that "moderately strongly correlated" means "largely unrelated"?

Largely independent. When 74% of the variation in one variable isn't associated with the other, and only 26% is, the variables are largely independent, which isn't something one would expect theoretically with regard to the relationship between YPA and YAC. One would think, in my opinion, that the association would be much stronger.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

I've researched the relationships between those variables (and others) and YPA league-wide, and between those variables and Tannehill's YPA game-to-game this year, yet despite that work on my part, I'm aware enough of my limitations to state simply that I'm unaware of team variables that are objectively related to his YPA, since I know there could be others I haven't looked at or cannot.

at a high level:

Passing yards = yards in the air + yards after catch - sack yards.

Yards in the air is determined by the pass patterns called.

pass attempts are increased with no gain in passing yards if a receiver drops a pass

YPA = passing yards / pass attempts

All of the bolded items (IMO) are impacted by others more than the play of the QB. It is undeniable that they are at least affected by others.

Did you fail math? Do you not realize that the analysis of the stats must take into account logic and context?

---------- Post added at 08:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:14 AM ----------

Largely independent. When 74% of the variation in one variable isn't associated with the other, and only 26% is, the variables are largely independent, which isn't something one would expect theoretically with regard to the relationship between YPA and YAC. One would think, in my opinion, that the association would be much stronger.

Well you would be WRONG.

 

[Shouright]

Well you would be WRONG.

Wouldn't be the first time or the last. Thanks for the discussion. :up: