How many fans actually put in the amount if time scouts and personnel ppl do though?
Do you watch film as you would a full time job?
I would suggest the are other things that affect picks as well.
Differences in basic philosophy for example. Many posters believe not drafting RB high is a monumental mistake. Flo/Grier obviously don't agree.
Another example is the average fan has no idea how coaches see the development of younger players, and the role they envision going forward.
Using data from SharpsFootballStats, I made a little comparison on 11 and 12 personnel from 2020. I have been waiting for an opportunity to add this to a discussion, and this seems like as good a time as any.
What jumps out to me is our passer rating and TD: INT ratio on 11 personnel. Obviously, they go hand in hand, but why were our interceptions so high with this grouping?
Conversely, on 12 personnel, our passer rating, and TD: INT ratio is much improved and is the best among the teams in my chart. When you say other things affect picks, perhaps Grier and Flo selected Long because they would like to improve our TE play in 11 personnel. It's also interesting that the Bills only ran 12 personnel 8% of the time even though they had great success with it. I advocated drafting Pitts and for us to run 12 personnel more. However, maybe we are looking to be more efficient with 11 personnel. With our draft and adding the FA Fuller, it would allow us to put more playmakers on the field who have the ability to get chunk yardage and more YAC.
Another interesting thing I see is about our TD production or lack thereof when comparing it to the teams I chose. On the chart below, I quickly separated the data for easy comparison, and even though this data is for only the plays we ran in 11 and 12 personnel, it gives us a general idea of where we stand. As we all can see, we have a long way to go to catch up. Hopefully, with the addition of 2 explosive playmakers in Fuller and Waddle and IF Long can add something to the mix, such as more consistent blocking, etc., then maybe we can close the gap.
I will add, though, generally speaking, I am not down on the Dolphins at all. I think Flo did an amazing job with our team last year. We may not have awesome offensive stats, and I think we overachieved largely due to our defense, but it is still a team sport. The offense did enough to help win the game, and a 10-6 season is something for us to hang our hat on.
No expert here, and as always, I welcome any positive thoughts on what others see with the data.
https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html
