J-Off's 2024 Edges | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

J-Off's 2024 Edges

Day 1: Jered Verse, Dallas Turner
Day 2: Chop Robinson, Laiatu Latu, Cedric Johnson, Brennan Jackson, Jalyx Hunt
Day 3: Eric Watts. Trajan Jeffcoat
 
I have been pretty open about how I felt about Chop Robinson but here is me trying to come to terms with the pick. ;)


I have been skeptical of Robinson for the entire Draft process but I can see why Miami liked him.

His physical tools are off the scale so they just need to coach him up.

Give this kid a few pass rush moves to go with his athletic ability and he could blow up.

I am going to assume that he was just too high on their board to pass on and I am always going to defend trusting your board and investing in premium positions early.

The only issue is that the team seems to be in a winning window and a shorter term move might have been the better play.

While it has been pointed out that Miami needs pass rush due to the injuries to Chubb and Phillips, Robinson is very unlikely to be ready to contribute early in his career.

He might well be the best pass rusher in this class eventually but I can't see him being more than a 3rd down DPR as a rookie.
 
jimthefin said:
I have been pretty open about how I felt about Chop Robinson but here is me trying to come to terms with the pick. ;)


I have been skeptical of Robinson for the entire Draft process but I can see why Miami liked him.

His physical tools are off the scale so they just need to coach him up.

Give this kid a few pass rush moves to go with his athletic ability and he could blow up.

I am going to assume that he was just too high on their board to pass on and I am always going to defend trusting your board and investing in premium positions early.

The only issue is that the team seems to be in a winning window and a shorter term move might have been the better play.

While it has been pointed out that Miami needs pass rush due to the injuries to Chubb and Phillips, Robinson is very unlikely to be ready to contribute early in his career.

He might well be the best pass rusher in this class eventually but I can't see him being more than a 3rd down DPR as a rookie.
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I didn't adjust the order here, but prior to the pick, I mentioned that I'd ultimately prefer Robinson to Verse and Latu, because his potential is so much higher and his advanced pass rush metrics in conjunction with athleticism and age make me think he's the kind of bet you make in the 1st at Edge.

Philosophically, I think building the OL in a strong OL class was the move. But, McDaniel obv has a different philosophy.

With that understanding, Robinson makes sense, because he plays a premium position, and he has the basic ingredients to become great.
 
Chop doesn’t have the length or the bend that you want. He has great get off, but he will need a lot of improvement to be a great pass rusher. My comp is Bruce Irvin.
 
Kebo said:
Chop doesn’t have the length or the bend that you want. He has great get off, but he will need a lot of improvement to be a great pass rusher. My comp is Bruce Irvin.
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Idk bend looked good to me. I don't think he'll fail for a lack of physical talent. His build reminds me of 90's-00's Steelers OLB's, but his speed and burst are on a different plane.

Irvin was the 15th? pick and was good, but I think Robinson has a higher ceiling - Irvin was an older prospect.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Idk bend looked good to me. I don't think he'll fail for a lack of physical talent. His build reminds me of 90's-00's Steelers OLB's, but his speed and burst are on a different plane.

Irvin was the 15th? pick and was good, but I think Robinson has a higher ceiling - Irvin was an older prospect.
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If he gets 10 sacks a year I will be pleasantly surprised. I see him around 8
 
Kebo said:
If he gets 10 sacks a year I will be pleasantly surprised. I see him around 8
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An 8-sack Edge is really good value on his contract, though. I think your scenario is plausible, but it's also plausible he continues to grow and uses his elite tools to become a true game-wrecker.
 
Kebo said:
Hope so, but I doubt it.
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I guess I'd just say his speed and burst gives him a higher margin for error in other areas. If he can get his hands to solid consistently (he's def flashed good hands), he can be really good. If he can get them to good, he can be great. You can only say that, really, about him and Turner. The other 2024 Edges don't have the same potential imo. I also think he complements Chubb and Phillips really well. A physical, pocket pusher on one side and a speed rusher on the other. In obvious passing situations, all 3 could play, and Barrett can still play. Obviously, Phillips and Chubb are returning from injuries.

But, when I look at what Baltimore did with Van Noy, he had a lot of room to rush, and I think Robinson could really thrive in that role.
 
I agree with some things you are saying. The problem is that makes him a specialist and not an every down player. I wouldn’t want that in the first round.
 
Kebo said:
I agree with some things you are saying. The problem is that makes him a specialist and not an every down player. I wouldn’t want that in the first round.
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I think it's an interesting approach to risk/reward. If he doesn't develop into an every down player, he'd have to be an elite pass rusher for him to be worth 1st Round capital. Some metrics do show him on that trajectory; others do not. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle but more toward the high-end side as a pass rusher.

Or, he could develop into an every down player but more of a Bruce Irvin level pass rusher, as you suggest. That'd make him a good value at 21.

If he's a Bruce Irvin level, designated pass rusher, he'd be worth less than you want at 21, and that'd be a disappointment but not a full-on bust. Less than Irvin and non-full time, you're getting into major disappointment/bust territory.

But, if Miami is right about the person, his character, work ethic, and ability to grow/learn, and he comes close to maximizing his physical talent, you're talking about a result you'd typically have to spend Top 10 capital on. The upside is UP there. In terms of pure movement ability, he's in range with guys like Von Miller and Micah Parsons. Not as good of a prospect, or he wouldn't be available at 21, but multiple All Pros, 100+ sacks, that's all within his range of outcomes. How likely he is to reach that kind of outcome is a matter of debate, and that's why we see a pretty wide range of opinions on him.

In terms of speed, burst, fluidity, it's hard to name 5 current Edges who can move like him, particularly since Miller is older. I think that's why you would see Micah Parsons' name come up so much with him (aside from the Penn State connection). Who else can fly off the ball and change direction like Robinson?

So, when I look at his range of outcomes, and his special traits (which truly are special imo), I get the bet Miami is making.
 
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