I was wondering how well Jeff Ireland has performed as GM. Which made me consider, what makes a successfull draft?
Bill Polian stated his formula as; ‘I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20. If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven’.
Based on this formula:-
2007 (1st pick)
Jake Long
Philip Merling
Chad Henne
Kendall Langford
Shaun Murphy
Jalen Parmale
Donald Thomas
Lex Hilliard
Lionel Dotson
Devone Bess
Dan Carpenter
We hit 5/11, even with Chad Henne at .450, well below the expected .640.
2008 (25th pick)
Vontae Davis
Pat White
Shaun Smith
Patrick Turner
Brian Hartline
John Nalbone
Chris Clemons
Andrew Gardener
J.D.Folsom
We hit 4/9 at .440, again well below the expected .571
2009 (traded down to pick at #28)
Jared Odrick
Koa Misi
John Jerry
AJ Edds
Nolan Carroll
Reshard Jones
Chris McCoy
Austin Spitler
I know this is a bit hard to judge, but in my mind, Odrick, Misi, Edds, Carroll & Reshard Jones will all contribute this year, resulting in 5/8 players with a hit of .625.
Based on Polian’s philosophy, in my mind, only last year was a successful draft.
Titans general manager Mike Reinfeldt bases success on this formula, "If you look historically, teams get 2.3 starters per draft and as a team, I think you need to strive to get three starters per draft, or I should say players worthy of starting.
Based on this principle:-
2007
Not including Chad Henne, we had 4 players worthy of starting status, Long, Langford, Bess & Carpenter.
2008
Again I would say we had 4 players, V.Davis, S.Smith, Hartline & Clemons
2009
I would say only 3 have an oppurtunity to start, Odrick, Misi & Reshard Jones.
Based on this principle, Ireland has been very succesful.
Although Ireland has been successful in drafting starters, or players worthy to start, in my mind where we have struggled is players who are able to contribute. Look at this stat -
http://www.drafttek.com/consolidatednfldraft-stillwithteam.asp.
I think the draft’s have been somewhat symptomatic to our success as a franchise. We have the players compete on
depth chart, but below the surface we do not have the
roster to contribute to a winning franchise.