Manning doesn't know if he will ever play again. He also knows that he is not going to be benched for a rookie. Do you think he is worried about Luck? And honestly, do you think Bill Polian cares???
The Colts will take him if they have the #1 pick, bet on it.
Manning has not only indicated that he will play again, he wants to play against
this season. They haven't put him on IR yet. And he specifically choose this surgery because it could get him back on the field with little problem. When he had the surgery, they called it a "career extending" surgery and not "career ending".
And does Bill Polian care? Well, lets see. Peyton Manning complains about lack of offensive firepower(despite already having Reggie Wayne), so they draft Anthony Gonzalez in the first round. He complains about not having a run game, enter Joseph Addai. Run game still suffers? Draft Donald Brown. About the only year they weren't taking Manning's concerns to heart was in 2010, when they drafted Jerry Hughes. And even then, less than a year later, people complained about not taking Rodger Saffold.
Keep in mind, Polian interviewed and scouted quarterbacks this year pretty heavily. They reportedly loved Andy Dalton. Instead of drafting Dalton, what did they spend their picks on? 2 offensive linemen with their top 2 selections.
The Colts have made one thing clear over and over again. They are going to build that team around Peyton Manning. This offseason, with the non stop attention to Manning, they stated they felt they could compete for at least 3 more Superbowls with him.
Now, they could very well take Luck. It wouldn't surprise me and would be extremely shrewd. Its no concidence that the Colts are struggling to win even a single game. Its because they are a very subpar team talent wise. If they would admit they need to rebuild and grab Luck, it would be brilliant. But i could see them being distracted by not wanting to offend their franchise quarterback. I mean, its not like we didn't see this very same thing happen in Green Bay. But Ted Thompson is alot more ballsy than Bill Polian.