Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics: Miami v Chargers Revisited

[xiidaen]

A lot of the opinions I’ve seen on this game speak to the dominance of Miami’s offense over the Chargers, Griese’s huge game elevating him to starter about Fiedler, etc. Then, these numbers showed up from an e-mail discussion group.

Some numbers that may surprise you:

The Bolts led in time of posession (31:48-28:12), rushing yards (104-81) and first downs (18-14).

The Dolphins 264 net yards was their second lowest output of the year, the lowest being 234 against Jax, and tied their lowest first down total of 14 against Houston.

The Dolphins gained less yards than any team San Diego has faced this season with the exception of the Ravens.

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 364 yards per game prior to last night; the Phins only managed 264 yards. Broken down that's 137 yards rushing per game (Phins got 81) and 226 yards passing per game (Phins got 183). And the Phins came close but didn't reach the Chargers average points given up per game of 28.

Another interesting individual stat is that Griese had a yards per attempt of 6.62, nearly identical to Fiedler's season average of 6.68.

Miami converted 50% of third downs (up from season average) and had 8 penalties for 47 yards.

Passing yards were also closer than I thought, 192 for Miami and 190 for the Chargers.

I’m not taking anything away from Griese here, I think he played well and brought a spark to the offense, but I admit the numbers here are not where I thought they were after the game… I still think he deserves to start next week and we’ll see what happens there, but this was not exactly the Miami Offense’s finest hour.

Take a look yourself, and see what you think…

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20031027_MIA@SD

 

[ZOD]

The one stat that is not in that equation is the 21 point lead at halftime.

The goal in the second half was to come out and run the clock out.

I have not checked the play selection but after two consecutive little gain runs in the 3rd I thought "it's the third quarter and they are already working the clock!".

The game was tainted in a stat "sense" for Griese but the simple fact remains that the defense put him in position to succeed and he did.

 

[finfan54]

to be fair though, you have to add all the yards that surtain and zach and all the sacks got us in field position. another fact about stats. very misleading. that is why 100 less yds IMO. INT's and safety and better returns by simmons ect. ect.

 

[Rebar71]

Turn-overs were the story. We didn't have to gain many yards in the first half to score those 24 points. The second half was atrocious offensively. But at the same time, it was pure Wanny ball: Build a lead in the first half, and dare them to come back on you in the second half.

 

[xiidaen]

I agree the defense, turnovers, and score were contributing factors. I was trying to show another look, not invalidate that information, I was surprised to see the stats come out the way they were.

For the record:

First half: 19 Passes, 12 Runs
Second Half: 15 Passes, 13 Runs (+5 runs (include 2 kneels) in the last drive for 15 Passes, 18 Runs overall.

 

[ZOD]

Originally posted by Rebar71
But at the same time, it was pure Wanny ball: Build a lead in the first half, and dare them to come back on you in the second half.

The sad fact about the Chargers.....I had no doubt that they could not mount a comeback. One of the few teams I've ever felt that way about during a Dolphin game.

 

[Cranx]

You also have to factor in the fact that there were AT LEAST 5 bad drops by receivers in the second half. Some of this may have had to do with a lack of familiarity with Griese but all of them were well thrown, catchable balls that should have been completions. All total the receivers alone probably left another 100 yards of offense on the field not to mention the fact that the O-line continues to struggle at creating anything resembling a hole for Ricky to run through.

 

[finfan54]

Originally posted by xiidaen
I agree the defense, turnovers, and score were contributing factors. I was trying to show another look, not invalidate that information, I was surprised to see the stats come out the way they were.

For the record:

First half: 19 Passes, 12 Runs
Second Half: 15 Passes, 13 Runs (+5 runs (include 2 kneels) in the last drive for 15 Passes, 18 Runs overall.

you got to wonder if norv will start throwin on first down all the time now with griese and chambers/mcnight hookin up.

 

[cheesefrog]

Receivers drop balls for Fiedler too. Griese was good, no doubt- but the offense was woeful overall, and has a long way to go.

I hate to say it but this team will not advance in the playoffs, if they make it. You have to be able to run the ball a little to win a playoff game, and kick a field goal if needed. Mare is awful right now.

And Ruddy is worse.

 

[Rebar71]

Originally posted by Expo88
You also have to factor in the fact that there were AT LEAST 5 bad drops by receivers in the second half. Some of this may have had to do with a lack of familiarity with Griese but all of them were well thrown, catchable balls that should have been completions. All total the receivers alone probably left another 100 yards of offense on the field not to mention the fact that the O-line continues to struggle at creating anything resembling a hole for Ricky to run through.

100% agreed. To me, our receivers looked downright LAZY in the second half. And that is unacceptable! :tantrum:

 

[DolfanISS]

Originally posted by xiidaen
I agree the defense, turnovers, and score were contributing factors. I was trying to show another look, not invalidate that information, I was surprised to see the stats come out the way they were.

For the record:

First half: 19 Passes, 12 Runs
Second Half: 15 Passes, 13 Runs (+5 runs (include 2 kneels) in the last drive for 15 Passes, 18 Runs overall.

Your numbers can't be right because Griese only threw 29 passes. You have him throwing 34.

 

[Beckyj4]

Hmm, Wonder if the cup is half empty or half full?

>The Bolts led in time of posession (31:48-28:12), rushing yards (104-81) and first downs (18-14)<

When you have a team whose RB is getting more yardage, their TOP is going to be more.

First downs was for Total P/R. Brian had 11, same as SD. Guess the 3rd down efficiency numbers didn't interest you? Dolphins/ Chargers
7-14-50% 3-14-21% :)


>First half: 19 Passes, 12 Runs
Second Half: 15 Passes, 13 Runs (+5 runs (include 2 kneels) in the last drive for 15 Passes, 18 Runs overall. <

Definately not accurate. First half PA 14 Comp13
The Gamebook does not have 1st half R att, but the final total was 27,
not 30 as your arithmetic shows. Final passing attempts/comp were, 29/20, with incidentally 3 TDs.

Another problem IMO, in the 2nd half, were the incessant Rushing attempts on 1st down, that kept losing yardage. I just kept going, PLU EEZE! Let Brian throw the ball on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down, one series and shock the crap out of the Chargers. Poor R Williams. They know he is going to get the ball on 1st down. I sure hope whoever is calling plays gets a bit sneakier before the Indy game.

 

[xiidaen]

Oops

Your numbers can't be right because Griese only threw 29 passes. You have him throwing 34.

Good catch, I did this quickly last night, and it occurs to me I would have counted sacks, as well as possibly penalties.

Sorry about that.

 

[BSQX4]

Expos' point is 100% correct. In the ebb and flow of a Football game the biggest factor at any time is the score. We were up 21 points and weren't trying to pad stats and who cares about time of possession when you're routing the other team. In the second half we folded the tent offensively and started working on he clock in the third quarter. Diego never challenged despite a 7 point gift on Rickeys' fumble. Don't get me wrong, I don't like that kind of Football, I'd of rather run up the score on them, but you know by now how Wanny protects a lead, lots of punts, lots of defense.

 

[Unclemeat]

The goal in the second half was to come out and run the clock out.

That's been Miami's offence the last several years. That's why they've had so many comebacks made against them. When they get a team down they let up instead of sticking it to them the whole game. I swear sometimes in the second half I wished they would run their offence like Jerry Reed did in the movie Waterboy. If Miami is inside their own 20, I say they would have won a few more games over tha last 3 years if they had just kneeled on the ball for three downs and then punted due to the turn overs they've coughed up on our side of the field. They weren't going to get a first down anyway and playing not to lose is playing to lose in the NFL. I'd love to coach against Miami. They are going to give you a chance. Look at the NE game. Twice they get to the 20 and just quit. Why didn't they throw and try to get inside the 10. NE would have. If I'm a defensive coordinator and Miami gets inside the 30, I'm going to put 8 in the box and stuff their *** because I know Turner is too chicken to throw the ball.